By Express News Service
As Kerala heads to polls on April 6 to pick out a govt, TNIE begins its complete protection of the elections.
Will Kerala, which is understood to alternate between LDF and UDF, spring a shock? Will BJP strengthen its place? We begin with a SWOT evaluation of the three fronts.
UDF
STRENGTHS
Trio is united
The triumvirate of Oommen Chandy, Ramesh Chennithala and Mullappally Ramachandran is conserving apart its variations to dislodge the Pinarayi-led LDF authorities.
Rahul issue
If Congress chief Rahul Gandhi campaigns extensively in Kerala, UDF could have an edge. A tour by Rahul with sister Priyanka Gandhi would assist UDF swing votes in its favour.
Return of Kunhalikutty
The re-entry of P Okay Kunhalikutty, IUML nationwide normal secretary, into state politics has strengthened UDF
Chandy helming marketing campaign
Bringing again well-liked chief Oommen Chandy to go the marketing campaign panel has given a lift to Congress staff.
WEAKNESS
Candidate choice
Selection of candidates alongside ‘A’, ‘I’ group affiliations and the revolt that follows.
Jose Mani switching camp
Jose Okay Mani becoming a member of LDF is predicted to slice away a portion of UDF’s conventional vote base in central Kerala.
Christian-Muslim pressure
Unrest between Muslim and the Christian communities, two main vote banks of UDF, after IUML opposed 10% quota for economically weaker sections amongst ahead castes.
Church’s concern of Muslim domination
The Church fears UDF’s return will imply Muslims occupying distinguished roles with IUML cornering key portfolios, together with training, the place the Church has stakes. It has additionally aired its issues of ‘Love jihad’ and is sad with IUML chief Panakkad Sadik Ali Shihab Thangal’s assertion hailing the reconversion of Istanbul’s Hagia Sophia right into a mosque.
OPPORTUNITIES
Split in LDF
Split in LDF allies — Mani C Kappan from NCP, JSS led by A N Rajan Babu and JD(S) led by normal secretary George Thomas – and their entry into UDF has given it momentum.
Backdoor appointments and PSC rank-holders’ stir
Government’s failure to settle the strike by PSC rank-holders and the row over backdoor appointments and nepotism have helped UDF.
Fishing deal
The deep-sea fishing deal signed by the federal government with US-based EMCC has helped UDF acquire assist of fishers.
Gold smuggling, LIFE mission:
The gold smuggling and LIFE Mission rip-off will help UDF drive house its expenses that the LDF authorities isn’t clear.
THREATS
Rebels
The greatest menace confronted by UDF, particularly Congress is the candidates choice. The get together needs to be very cautious in deciding on candidates.
LDF’s free meals kits
The Pinarayi authorities’s transfer to distribute free meals kits, which benefitted 88 lakh households, is cited as a significant component in serving to LDF register win in native physique polls. To counter this, UDF has promised to introduce NYAY scheme, whereby poor households will obtain Rs 6,000 monthly.
Palarivattom flyover
If UDF retains V Okay Ebrahim Kunju in Kalamassery, LDF will use it to assault the entrance throughout campaigning citing the Palarivattom flyover rip-off.
Veterans who won’t transfer away
The outdated guard in Congress, together with Okay C Joseph (74), P J Kurien (79) and P C Chacko (74), nonetheless wish to contest, blocking the way in which for younger and new faces.
LDF
STRENGTHS
Pinarayi Vijayan
Unified management in entrance and the get together. No factional feuds.
Development
Major developmental and infrastructure initiatives along with welfare measures like free meals kits.
New allies
Entry of ex-UDF allies — KC(M) led by Jose Okay Mani and LJD.
Local physique momentum
The normal pro-Left wave within the native physique elections.
WEAKNESS
Weak defence
Failure to successfully counter campaigns round two latest controversies.
No VS
V S Achuthanandan, the most important crowd-puller and hottest campaigner of LDF within the final three meeting elections, is conserving away this time.
OPPORTUNITIES
Favourable sentiment
Strong public sentiment that the Left could get continuity in workplace. Poll surveys additionally predict the identical.
Early talks
Early seat-sharing inside the entrance with out main disputes. Young and higher candidates.
Jose Okay Mani
Making in-roads into Christian vote base in central Travancore with Jose Okay Mani’s entry.
THREATS
Revoking instances
Possible constructive response from varied communities after withdrawal of instances associated to Sabarimala and anti-CAA protests.
Controversies
Two main controversies that cropped up within the closing lap — Regularising momentary employees and the deep-sea fishing deal.
Community bother
Strong opposition from NSS and anti-Left sentiment amongst sure sections submit failure to type out Orthodox-Jacobite situation.
Mani C Kappan
Mani switching allegiance to UDF can show expensive for LDF in central Travancore.
THIRD FRONT
STRENGTHS
Dedicated cadre: A devoted cadre and grassroots-level election work involving RSS males
Money: Huge funding for marketing campaign, Central authorities’s agency backing
Strategy: Gaining the boldness of varied Church teams by means of PM-level talks
New entrants: Roping in Jacob Thomas, E Sreedharan and different distinguished personalities
WEAKNESS
Internal tussle: Factional feud in state unit that always wants the nationwide management’s intervention
Sobha issue: BJP State VP Sobha Surendran and her supporters but to be taken into confidence
Chief bother: Opposition inside get together in direction of Okay Surendran’s model of functioning
Limited avenues: Limited seats within the state the place BJP can win by itself
OPPORTUNITIES
Mobilisation: Prospects of mobilising massive chunk of anti-LDF votes to its benefit
Love jihad: Gaining confidence of Christian voters by taking a strident stance in opposition to ‘Love jihad’
Decider: Playing essential function in deciding winner in not less than 15 seats
Share: Has likelihood to extend vote share significantly
THREATS
Fuel: Rising gasoline and cooking gasoline costs could hamper get together’s probabilities
Sabarimala: UDF is profiting from Sabarimala issue because it did in 2019 Minority votes: Large-scale consolidation of minority votes .
Hindutva: Alienating secular voters by excessively whipping up Hindutva
