The counting of votes within the Assembly Elections throughout 5 states are presently underway. The Left Front is ready to retain energy in Kerala, it’s a good contest in Tamil Nadu however DMK seems to be heading in the direction of a cushty victory and the BJP alliance in Puducherry seems set to win Puducherry. But it’s West Bengal and Assam that we are going to be specializing in right here.
Assam and West Bengal are two states the place minority vote-share impacts BJP’s probabilities of victory majorly. In Assam, the proportion of minority vote share is definitely larger than in West Bengal. And but, it’s in Assam that BJP has managed to safe a cushty victory whereas going through a rout in West Bengal.
According to the official web site of the Election Commission of India (ECI), the Trinamool Congress is main in 201 seats whereas the BJP solely in 78 (as of 1.40 p.m.). The corresponding vote-shares are 48.55% for the TMC and 37.40% for the BJP.
The BJP would possibly search to take some comfort from the truth that it’s set to see an exponential enhance in its seat share these elections however there may be actually no solution to spin this. The saffron vote-share has truly gone down from the 2019 General Elections, the place the BJP managed to safe over 40% of the votes.
The reply is obvious, the sort of Hindu consolidation that was noticed in 2019 simply didn’t happen in 2021 in favour of the BJP. A major sufficient part of its Hindu votes went over to the TMC as a substitute.
The questions that must be answered is why did it occur and the underlying elements behind it. And for that, the BJP wants to have a look at what it did proper in Assam. In Assam, the BJP’s technique was consolidation of Hindu votes and not using a hyper concentrate on particular person group identities in its narrative.
It was the polar reverse in West Bengal with the occasion specializing in the Matua neighborhood and the Mahisya neighborhood significantly. The outcome was that Hindu consolidation didn’t occur on the bottom and the hyper concentrate on these identities didn’t repay within the polls.
Mamata Banerjee seems to be sweeping Matua and Mahisya dominated constituencies as effectively. It is true that the issues of particular person identities must be tackle to safe elections however in West Bengal, there was a hyper concentrate on such identities with out an overarching Hindu centric narrative.
In Assam, leaders made no qualms about banking on Hindu consolidation to win elections. A terrific deal was centered on the truth that the anti-CAA sentiment in Upper Assam was going to price BJP severely. But it didn’t.
Because the narrative was that variations between Assamese Hindus and Bengali Hindus may very well be sorted by political association between the 2, which was not potential with the rising Muslim neighborhood within the state.
The truth of the matter is that the BJP didn’t go onerous sufficient on Hindu consolidation in Bengal. It can also be unclear as of now the extent to which not implementing the CAA affected the election outcomes within the state.
There will probably be these sympathizers of the occasion who will blame the voters of Bengal for the outcomes. But such conversations are futile. In a democracy, not a single vote is owed to any political occasion. Every political occasion should earn its vote.
A major share of individuals (round 3-4%) who voted for the BJP in 2019 voted for Mamata Banerjee this time round. Why was it the case? That is for the events to analyse the outcomes and discover out but it surely’s pointless responsible voters for a similar.
In 2019, the vote in Bengal was polarised alongside non secular strains and in 2021 it was not. As a consequence, BJP misplaced massively in 2021 and even had their strongholds breached. In Assam, each in 2019 and 2021, the vote was polarised alongside non secular strains and therefore, the occasion gained.
Some will argue that it was the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 the place Prime Minister Modi himself was on the poll and this time round, it’s the Assembly Elections. But the actual fact stays that many points in these two states that had been related in 2019 are related this time round as effectively.
The CAA, unlawful immigration and the affect of minority vote-share had been equally important now as they had been in 2019. Going ahead, the trail ahead for the BJP is obvious. Instead of a hyper concentrate on particular person identities, the half should tread the trail of unabashed Hindu vote consolidation.
There can also be the case that the BJP didn’t have sturdy native leaders in West Bengal. But certainly, Dilip Ghosh and Suvendu Adhikari are extraordinarily widespread. And but, the BJP has misplaced massively in these constituencies as effectively. The occasion absolutely has to spend important time on a substantial amount of introspection on the setback, which it undoubtedly is.