The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Thursday has stated {that a} ‘high-intensity’ cyclone, that’s brewing within the Arabian Sea, is headed in the direction of south Gujarat-Pakistan and can attain their coasts round May 18.
If realised, this would be the first cyclone to kind in 2021 over the North Indian Ocean area. The heat ocean circumstances prevailing throughout May usually favour cyclogenesis on this area. Once the system develops as a cyclone, it can purchase the identify Tauktae given by Myanmar.
On Thursday morning, a low-pressure system developed within the southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep space.
It is anticipated to show right into a well-marked low-pressure system by Friday and intensify right into a melancholy by May 15 and lay over the Lakshadweep area. Later, on May 16, the Deep Depression might additional strengthen and take start as a cyclone.
“It is very likely to intensify further and move north-northwards towards Gujarat and the adjoining Pakistan coast. It is likely to reach Gujarat coast around the evening on May 18,” IMD stated in its assertion on Thursday.
The present low stress system will intensify a minimum of by 4 or extra phases inside a span of simply three days, indicating a cyclone with greater depth is almost certainly to develop over the Arabian Sea within the coming days. The attainable observe motion of the system will probably be clear and predictable with sure surety by the meteorologists solely as soon as the system turns right into a melancholy.
“We are expecting very rapid intensification of the system within a short time. One of the contributory factors is the very high sea surface temperatures that are currently prevailing over the Arabian Sea coupled with ocean thermal energy. It has been found that ocean waters, even upto a depth of 50 metres, are very warm. This, in turn, will supply more energy to the system via evaporational cooling and help rapid intensification,” Sunitha S Devi, senior scientist on the Cyclone Warning Division of IMD, instructed The Indian Express on Thursday.
As the system is anticipated to traverse between Lakshadweep all the way in which north to Gujarat, the utmost climate within the type of heavy to extraordinarily heavy rainfall (over 204mm) is anticipated over Lakshadweep, Kerala and Karnataka between May 14 and 16.
“The expected track to be followed indicates a north-northwestward track, as a result of which the rainfall intensity forecast for Goa and south Konkan is light to moderate rainfall,” she stated.
According to the forecast, mild to reasonable rainfall is forecast over south Konkan and Goa and south Gujarat areas adjoining Kutch and southern Rajasthan throughout May 16 – 18.
Strong winds with speeds ranging between 40 and 50 km/hour gusting to 60 km/hour is probably going all alongside the west coast beginning Saturday morning. Wind speeds are anticipated to extend to 70 km/hour until the night hours of May 18. In view of such tough sea circumstances, fishermen have been suggested to remain off deep seas.
