On August 23, Bihar chief minister and Janata Dal (united) chief Nitish Kumar fashioned an unlikely alliance along with his political rival, the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Yadav, who additionally occurs to be the chief of the opposition within the state meeting. The two of them, together with the leaders of 10 different events from Bihar, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi and demanded a caste-based census, regardless that the Union authorities had in July said in Parliament that an enumeration of castes is not going to be a part of the 2021 census “as a matter of policy”.
At the core of this rising clamour for a caste census is the need to pinpoint the power of the OBCs (Other Backward Classes), who’ve of late emerged as essentially the most influential voting group in electoral politics. With no official rely, there’s a notion that the OBCs account for greater than 52 per cent of the inhabitants (the Mandal Commission estimate from 4 many years in the past, which took as its base the 1931 caste census, the final time it was finished), and, subsequently, deserve greater than 27 per cent reservation. If a caste census substantiates this notion, this may occasionally lead to a a lot stronger demand for a rejig of the present reservation construction.At stake can be greater than 9 million authorities jobs—each on the Centre and within the states—throughout India, and admissions in instructional institutes, together with 2.3 million engineering seats and greater than 80,000 medical seats. Fearing a backlash from different caste teams, notably the higher castes, the BJP-led Union authorities is unwilling to disturb the established order. This is particularly in order Uttar Pradesh goes to meeting election in lower than six months, and the place the BJP is in search of a second time period.This is the explanation why Prime Minister Narendra Modi, an OBC himself, has taken a U-turn from what his cabinet colleague Rajnath Singh had promised in 2018—that knowledge on the OBCs can be collected within the 2021 census. Meanwhile, the opposite political events are in search of to make use of this demand to not solely woo the OBCs but in addition rob the BJP of a number of the most important weaponry in its electoral arsenal.A 2019 post-poll examine by the Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) discovered that the proportion of OBCs voting for the BJP doubled from 22 per cent in 2009 to 44 per cent in 2019. In the 2017 UP meeting election, when the BJP gained 312 seats within the 403-member home, its OBC vote share was 47 per cent. Currently, 32 per cent of its legislators within the state are OBCs, up from 20 per cent 10 years in the past.However, the opposite events are desirous to problem the BJP in vying for the OBC vote. The demand for a caste census has come not simply from Bihar’s leaders, however from virtually all non-BJP political events, together with the Congress, NCP (Nationalist Congress Party), BJD (Biju Janata Dal), DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), SP (Samajwadi Party) and BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party). The saffron celebration’s refusal has given Opposition events contemporary ammunition to focus on the Modi authorities, and notably the Yogi Adityanath authorities in UP. The Samajwadis and the Congress have began organising OBC sammelans, whereas the BSP can be making a din. “We have always said that the OBCs must get their due, and for that to happen, they must know their share in the population. The BJP doesn’t have the welfare of the OBCs at heart,” says BSP MP Ram Shiromani Verma, a member of the parliamentary joint committee on the welfare of Other Backward Classes.An extra reason behind embarrassment for the NDA government is that allies reminiscent of JD(U) and Apna Dal have joined the refrain too. Even the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC) has endorsed the concept. “The commission’s view is that there should be an OBC census. It’s for the government to act now,” says its chairman Dr Bhagwan Lal Sahni. Then, there are the intra-party contradictions. In the Lok Sabha, celebration MP Sanghmitra Maurya has raised the demand, whereas Union training minister Dharmendra Pradhan, an OBC chief himself, termed the caste-based census “a revolutionary process”.With its again to the wall, the BJP now says the celebration is just not against the concept “in principle” however needs “broader consensus” on the problem. “PM Modi has been considering the matter seriously,” says BJP MP Rajesh Verma, chairman of the OBC parliamentary joint committee. “We have not rejected the idea, but there has to be an informed debate on the matter in Parliament first.”Why the sudden demand for a caste relyThe surge in demand for a caste census was triggered by a March 4 Supreme Court verdict which quashed the 27 per cent OBC quota in native our bodies in Maharashtra for need of empirical knowledge on the backwardness of the communities. The 73rd and 74th constitutional amendments offered for reservations for backward class and girls in panchayat raj establishments. The Supreme Court verdict scrapping OBC reservation is relevant to all of the states. “The states want a caste census because 900,000 OBC representatives could lose their posts in the country, including 56,000 in Maharashtra alone,” says creator and OBC activist Professor Hari Narke, head of the Mahatma Phule Chair on the University of Pune.In India, whereas the census consists of the numbers of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, ‘general’—primarily the higher—castes, and OBCs should not enumerated. The SCs/ STs have been given reservation in authorities jobs and academic institutes proportionate to their share within the inhabitants—15 per cent and seven.5 per cent, respectively.However, the federal government can not arbitrarily enhance the share of OBC reservation as a consequence of a authorized roadblock. In 1992, the Supreme Court dominated that caste-based reservation in jobs can not exceed 50 per cent. Since SCs/ STs nook 23 per cent, there’s little scope for any hike within the OBC share. As a caste census can present empirical knowledge, the demand for it gained a brand new foreign money; the electoral intent was a bonus. “The majority of the political spectrum, including BJP MPs and allies of the party, have supported, and demanded, a caste census. The sooner a comprehensive exercise is done, the better,” says Abhishek Manu Singhvi, Rajya Sabha MP, Congress.The sudden desperation to take up the OBC trigger is because of their electoral significance. In the previous three many years, the group—or its parts—have been the spine of caste-based events such because the SP, RJD and JD(U), and likewise the important thing differentiator within the swinging electoral fortunes of the 2 nationwide events—the BJP and Congress. Nowhere was this extra evident than within the grand show of unity in Parliament. In the just-concluded monsoon session, the opposition didn’t take part in any debate towards the alleged Pegasus snooping case involving the federal government. But when the 127th modification to the Constitution Act—reinstating the facility of the states to declare any caste group as OBC—got here up, all of the events not solely took half within the debate but in addition voted unanimously within the invoice’s favour.The BJP’s reluctance to do an OBC censusSeveral political analysts level out {that a} caste census poses a big dilemma for the BJP and its conventional caste calculus. While Dattatreya Hosabale, basic secretary of the BJP’s alma mater RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), reiterated in August that the Sangh strongly helps reservation, the organisation has shunned saying something in regards to the caste census. In 2011, Hosabale’s predecessor Suresh Bhaiyyaji Joshi had provided an perception into the RSS’s ideas on the topic when he stated {that a} caste-based census was towards the concept of the casteless society envisaged by leaders reminiscent of Babasaheb Ambedkar.Of course, there’s extra to it. The BJP emerged first as a celebration of the Brahmins and Baniyas, two higher caste teams. However, the higher caste vote alone was inadequate to maintain its electoral ascent, particularly after the OBCs acquired a definite political id following V.P. Singh’s implementation of the Mandal Commission report. To counter the ‘Mandal politics’, the celebration broadened its political base by specializing in a ‘Hindutva’ id—an amalgamation of all Hindu identities, regardless of caste. This was the explanation why the BJP—which had handed a decision in its Bhopal nationwide government in 1985 demanding the implementation of the Mandal Commission report however later modified tack and withdrew help to the V.P. Singh authorities over the Mandal problem—stepped up the Ayodhya Ram temple agitation, for it helped carry the OBCs and Dalits beneath an umbrella Hindu id.Political observers consider that the BJP fears a caste census will cut up the Hindu vote. The transfer could assist consolidate its help base among the many OBCs, but it surely might additionally invite a backlash from the higher castes. “If we have actual data, the regional caste-based parties may raise the demand to lift the 27 per cent cap on OBC reservation,” says Sanjay Kumar, director, CSDS.Any demand to rejig the reservation construction could result in a repeat of the social unrest and higher caste dissension that accompanied the implementation of the Mandal reservation system. And the BJP can ailing afford to offend its core higher caste voter base. “The BJP does not have the cushion of minority votes,” says a BJP chief in Patna. “We may earn some brownie points with the OBCs, but the regional parties will be the real gainers. The risk-reward ratio is skewed against us.”In truth, even because it has wooed the OBCs, the BJP has been cautious to not harm the pursuits of the higher castes. In 2019, the Modi authorities launched 10 per cent reservation for the economically weaker sections (EWS) of socially superior teams, or the higher castes. “Any government would be worried about upsetting the upper castes. Though it claims to champion the cause of OBCs, the BJP finally is a party of the upper castes. So, the worry is more,” says social scientist Sudha Pai.Other specialists disagree with the evaluation that the BJP fears an higher caste backlash. “There is a lot of conflict and violence around religion, but it’s people of one religion that are being counted. Counting doesn’t lead to conflict. Conflict is engineered by groups with a polarising agenda,” says Ashwini Deshpande, director of the Centre for Economic Data and Analysis at Ashoka University in Haryana. Prashant Okay. Trivedi, an affiliate professor on the Giri Institute of Development Studies in Lucknow, sees an unlimited change within the socioeconomic situation of the nation up to now three many years with the opening up of profitable company jobs “seriously altering the earlier status of government jobs as a do or die thing”.However, the reluctance to conduct a caste rely has to do with different fears as nicely. Several dominant caste teams, such because the Patidars in Gujarat, the Marathas in Maharashtra and the Jats in Haryana have been agitating, usually violently, demanding OBC standing. Any rely with out resolving these contentious calls for could create a much bigger mess for the Centre. There can be no readability on the official classification of some caste teams. For occasion, the Jats take pleasure in OBC standing in Rajasthan however not in Haryana or within the central record. In a number of states, together with Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, even Brahmins have discovered a spot in OBC lists. “There are logistical issues which need to be resolved first. Otherwise, it will end up being a flawed exercise like the 2011 Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC),” says Okay. Laxman, nationwide president of the BJP’s OBC wing.J.Okay. Bajaj, director of the Centre for Policy Studies in Chennai and member of the Justice Rohini Commission on the sub-categorisation of OBCs, agrees that the SECC had anomalies however attributes it to the enumerators not having a listing of castes. “Karnataka, in recent years, carried out a state-level caste census based on a comprehensive list of all castes before the actual enumeration,” says Bajaj. He cautions that this may very well be a time-consuming train and will not be potential within the present census which has already been delayed due to the Covid pandemic.The BJP leaders are actually cleverly in search of to place the ball within the state governments’ courtroom. Ganesh Singh, a BJP MP and former chairman of the parliamentary committee on welfare of Other Backward Classes, says that whether or not the Centre counts the OBCs or not, “the states must start the exercise on their own”. The BJP anticipates that no state will take the bait as the result could significantly disturb the political and social equilibrium. The Siddaramaiah-led Congress authorities in Karnataka had performed a ‘Socio-Economic and Education Survey’ in 2015 wherein caste was additionally demarcated however successive Congress and BJP governments haven’t revealed its outcomes. Leaked findings estimated that the inhabitants of the Lingayats, one of the vital dominant caste teams within the state, was beneath 10 per cent (opposite to claims of them being 18 per cent). Representative our bodies of the Lingayats and Vokkaligas, the 2 dominant caste teams, had even threatened protests if the findings had been made public. The BJP expects that states will chorus from such an train for worry of being compelled to recalibrate the reservation pie. For occasion, Karnataka presents 32 per cent reservation to the OBCs. The 2015 caste rely reportedly discovered that SCs accounted for twenty-four per cent of the inhabitants, making them the only largest group. This could make them demand greater than the 15 per cent quota of reservation to make it proportionate to their share of the overall inhabitants. With STs cornering 3 per cent of the pie, the state authorities can not enhance SC reservation with out violating the 50 per cent cap.Does India want a caste census?Most specialists agree that there is no such thing as a hurt in endeavor a caste census since caste identities are a actuality of India’s sociopolitical existence. “When a category called OBC has been created constitutionally, why should there be a debate on the question of counting this group?” asks Professor Narender Kumar of the Centre for Political Studies on the Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi.The BJP’s rivals argue {that a} caste rely will assist the federal government body higher insurance policies and welfare programmes for these teams. “The caste census is not just about finding the quantum of backward castes,” says Manoj Okay. Jha, an RJD Rajya Sabha MP and professor on the Delhi School of Social Work. “It’s about holding up a mirror to the status of a large section of people on the socioeconomic ladder. For policymaking and social equilibrium in a welfare state like India, a census is mandatory.” A prime JD(U) chief says the celebration believes a caste census will assist the state establish these sections within the OBC nonetheless outdoors the social welfare radar.According to knowledge revealed in Parliament, round 21 per cent of the workforce within the central ministries and public sector enterprises is from among the many OBCs (27 per cent is earmarked for them). While the OBCs account for 45 per cent of the scholars in main training, their share drops to 37 per cent in greater training. The BJP’s Laxman argues that as an alternative of a headcount, states should be pushed into successfully implementing reservation. Of the 15,000 notified OBC communities, 9,500-odd don’t even get its advantages. Narke says the federal government must spend extra on the socioeconomic uplift of OBCs, for which their enumeration is a should. “In this year’s budget, the Centre allocated just Rs 18 per OBC person for the entire financial year,” he claims. Ganesh Singh accepts that lack of knowledge has hindered a targeted strategy on OBC youngsters. “That’s why I suggested a separate fund for the OBCs,” he claims.How the BJP is negotiating the mazeWhile the Centre has ducked a response, the BJP has already launched an offensive towards the opposition events. Following the March 4 apex courtroom verdict, the saffron celebration launched a statewide agitation towards the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA (Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi) authorities in Maharashtra, alleging that it had failed to guard reservation for OBCs in native our bodies. It additionally introduced that if reservation was not restored, it might discipline solely OBC candidates for the upcoming native physique election. The Thackeray authorities responded by in search of the 2011 SECC knowledge on OBCs from the Modi authorities in order that it might submit the identical as empirical proof in courtroom. Ironically, the earlier Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP-Shiv Sena authorities had additionally made the same enchantment to the Centre, solely to be rebuffed.Apart from the counter-strike, the BJP can be targeted on getting the optics proper. The share of OBC members in Modi’s council of ministers has jumped from 13 in May 2019 to 27 now. Ensuring that voters be aware of this, it even organised an occasion in Delhi to felicitate the 27 ministers. After the 127th Constitution Amendment Act was handed, the BJP introduced plans to carry 70 ‘Modi samarthan sammelans’ throughout the nation to showcase, amongst different issues, the Centre’s actions to empower the OBCs.In July, the Centre introduced 27 per cent reservation for OBC college students in medical and dental programs beneath the all-India quota. The earnings restrict for the creamy layer among the many OBCs has additionally been raised, from Rs 6 lakh to Rs 8 lakh (which might go as much as even Rs 16 lakh, as really helpful by the NCBC). The NCBC itself received constitutional standing beneath the Modi regime. Simultaneously, the BJP continues to work to dismantle the monopoly of caste-based events over OBC votes. The celebration has mobilised help among the many marginalised OBCs in varied states by floating a story that regional events assist solely the dominant OBC castes, who nook all the advantages. “The dominant OBC castes in every state are inclined to support a particular party, such as the Yadavs favouring the RJD in Bihar and SP in Uttar Pradesh, Lingayats backing the JD(S) in Karnataka and Kurmis voting for the JD(U) in Bihar. While these parties are focused on their core support caste, the BJP has intelligently sought to mobilise the other OBC castes which did not get commensurate reservation benefits,” says Prof. Kumar of CSDS. The BJP marketing campaign towards the Yadavs labored in UP because the celebration cornered the most important slice of the non-Yadav OBC votes within the earlier two Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 meeting election. The BJP’s alliance with non-Yadav OBC events such because the Kurmi-dominated Apna Dal, the Rajbhar-dominated SBSP and the Nishad Party has additionally labored.Critics consider that the Modi authorities could now utilise the Rohini Commission report back to consolidate its base amongst non-dominant OBC castes. Constituted in 2017, the four-member fee headed by retired Delhi High Court chief justice G. Rohini has examined how the 27 per cent reservation for OBCs is being applied. According to sources, the commission discovered that of the shut to six,000 castes and communities among the many OBCs, a mere 40 had seized 50 per cent of the quota for admission in central instructional establishments and recruitment to civil companies. Just 10 castes have monopolised 1 / 4 of the 27 per cent OBC quota. Nearly 20 per cent of OBC communities haven’t received quota profit from 2014 to 2018. The committee is prone to suggest splitting the two,633 OBC sub-castes within the central OBC record into 4 teams for equitable distribution of the reservation pie.Experts have been sceptical about this train, particularly within the absence of a caste rely. “The government-appointed commission talks about sub-categorisation, but how will we know there is equitable distribution unless we have data by jati?” asks Prof. Deshpande. Yet, the subcategorisation of OBC castes is just not a brand new idea. Already 11 states—West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar, J&Okay, Haryana and Puducherry—have it. The sub-categorisation of Dalits, figuring out quite a few ignored Dalit castes as Mahadalits, has paid wealthy dividends to Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar up to now. To replicate such an experiment, Adityanath appointed a social justice committee in May 2018 to rationalise the OBC reservation construction in UP. His authorities is but to implement the advice of the committee—splitting the OBC bloc into three sections—backward class, extra backward and most backward class—however the dilly-dallying, coupled with the refusal to conduct a caste census, has price the BJP some allies, specifically the SBSP and the Maurya community-dominated Mahan Dal, who are actually cosying as much as the SP.What’s the best way out?While the BJP should rapidly discover a new components to crack the political puzzle round OBCs, most social scientists agree that the true resolution to the issue lies in a dispassionate evaluation of the reservation coverage. “Reservation is not a magic wand that can eliminate caste inequality. Many more policies need to be put in place to achieve caste equality. Reservation is only a small part of the overall policy mix,” says Prof. Deshpande of Ashoka University. Trivedi of the Giri Institute of Development Studies prescribes thorough land reforms as a vital measure for the backward courses. “The rescuing of the agriculture economy from the ensuing crisis would be a major step,” he says.Others name for a evaluation of the Mandal Commission’s standards for figuring out backward courses. Sociologists reminiscent of Dipankar Gupta have argued that the Mandal Commission’s “flawed” system of weightage allowed a number of undeserving communities a spot within the OBC class. Social scientists Satish Deshpande and Yogendra Yadav have recommended that not simply caste however a number of different indicators, reminiscent of group, gender, household background (managerial, skilled, clerical, non-income tax-paying) and sort of education (authorities or non-public, English or vernacular medium) also needs to be thought-about.The different massive concern is the absence of a timeline for reservations. The Constitution had proposed that the SC/ ST reservation coverage be legitimate for a decade and subsequently be reviewed by way of the progress made. But slightly than an extension based mostly on an in-depth evaluation, it has been renewed each decade as a matter after all as a result of it’s a political scorching potato. Apart from fixing a agency timeline for reservations, many specialists argue that different indicators, together with earnings, slightly than castes, needs to be made the standards to find out reservations for the underprivileged. “A caste census will make no sense if the count doesn’t do cross-tabulation in terms of income, education level and land ownership among OBCs,” says social scientist Sudha Pai. Will the federal government chunk the bullet?- with Amitabh Srivastava and Anilesh S. Mahajan
