Written by David E. Sanger and Michael Crowley
US President Joe Biden warned President Vladimir Putin of Russia on Tuesday that an invasion of Ukraine would lead to heavy financial penalties for him and lead NATO to reposition its troops in Europe, measures that he mentioned would go effectively past the West’s response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea seven years in the past.
In a two-hour, safe video convention that American and Russian officers each described as tense however sometimes pierced by humor, Biden additionally mentioned an invasion might finish Russia’s hopes of finishing the Nord Stream II gasoline pipeline to Europe, which might be a significant new supply of power income.
It is simply too early to inform whether or not the much-anticipated dialog — whose particulars have been laborious to elicit, as each the White House and the Kremlin put their spin on it — will alleviate the quick disaster in Ukraine, the place roughly 70,000 Russian troops have massed, with extra gear and personnel arriving day-after-day.
Putin gave no indication of his final intent, American officers mentioned, leaving the world guessing whether or not he was really planning an invasion early subsequent yr or making an attempt to get the West to concentrate to his calls for by manufacturing a disaster.
In a quick video of the opening moments of the decision launched by Russian state tv, Putin mentioned, “Greetings, Mr. President!”
“Good to see you again,” Biden responded warmly, after what seemed to be a quick connection glitch. He lamented that that they had not seen one another in particular person this fall on the Group of 20 summit assembly. But neither facet launched any video of dialog on the problems at hand.
Not surprisingly, each side portrayed their leaders as resolute. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s nationwide safety adviser, mentioned the president was “clear,’’ “direct” and “candid.”
The Russian authorities, in an unusually detailed description of the encounter, mentioned Putin had warned Biden that Western army exercise in and round Ukraine was approaching a “red line” that was threatening Russia’s safety.
“There was no finger-wagging, however the president was crystal clear,’’ Sullivan advised reporters after the session, which Biden performed from the White House Situation Room and Putin from his retreat on the Black Sea. Asked for specifics in regards to the penalties dealing with Russia, Sullivan declined to enter element.
“I will look you in the eye and tell you, as President Biden looked President Putin in the eye and told him today, that things we did not do in 2014, we are prepared to do now,” Sullivan mentioned, referring to the yr Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Virtually no nation has acknowledged the motion, and Western powers proceed to levy sanctions in opposition to Russia for it. But the sanctions have failed of their major goal: to create sufficient ache for Russia that it returns the territory.
In current days, American officers have mentioned {that a} listing of potential penalties being compiled by the Treasury Department, in collaboration with European allies, ranges from blocking Russian corporations from entry to international capital markets to monetary penalties aimed on the Russian elite, particularly the oligarchs who’ve helped finance and help Putin. The most excessive step — one that’s nonetheless being debated — can be to chop Russia off from the worldwide monetary settlement system, referred to as SWIFT, however some European officers have feared that step may provoke too harsh a response.
Sullivan additionally held out the potential for “an alternative pathway by which we can make progress on diplomacy,” describing what can be, in essence, a return to a diplomatic course of Russia engaged in six years in the past — however has largely ignored since.
Russian officers mentioned the tone of the decision was “honest and businesslike.” But Putin’s key message, the Kremlin maintained, was that Western army exercise was a menace to Russia and that the United States was elevating tensions within the area by rising its “military potential near our borders.”
What Putin sees as a crimson line, Ukraine and the West see as affordable protection for a rustic that already misplaced management of Crimea — nonetheless “occupied territory,” within the US’ description — and has been engaged in a warfare of attrition in Donbas, within the east.
Since the Crimea takeover, the United States has dedicated greater than $2.5 billion in safety help, together with air surveillance radars, counterartillery radars, drones, safe communications armed patrol boats and, most significantly, Javelin anti-tank techniques. The final of these have frightened Russian army leaders sufficient that a few of the tanks seen massing on the borders are sporting new deflectors, like a steel umbrella, to deceive the missile’s homing techniques.
Ukrainian troopers chill out of their barracks in Avdiivka, Ukraine, Dec. 1, 2021. (Brendan Hoffman/The New York Times)
The summit had the texture of a return to the East-West politics of the Cold War, when NATO technique was centered on the right way to halt an invasion from the previous Soviet Union, and Moscow was looking for respect and deference. But at stake was the continued independence of Ukraine, which received its independence after the autumn of the Soviet Union, whose collapse Putin has described as a tragedy of Twentieth-century geopolitics. And White House aides have been extremely conscious that whereas their choices have been restricted — there isn’t a dialogue of direct army involvement by the United States — a failure to discourage Putin might be seen as an indication of weak spot world wide, particularly by China.
Putin speaks typically about Ukraine’s historic and ethnic ties to Russia, saying they’re “one people,” and finds Kyiv’s discuss of eventual membership in NATO and the European Union each a safety menace and an affront to his nation’s nationwide pleasure.
While the 2 males met, a senior State Department official, Victoria Nuland, warned the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the Russian chief appeared emboldened.
“Much of this comes right out of Putin’s 2014 playbook, but this time, it is much larger and on a much more lethal scale,’’ said Nuland, a Russia specialist who has angered Putin in the past. “So despite our uncertainty about exact intentions and timing, we must prepare with our allies and partners for all contingencies, even as we push Putin to reverse course.”
Nuland additionally recommended that Ukraine is perhaps drawing nearer to the purpose of using defensive Javelin anti-tank missiles that the United States had equipped to its army in recent times however which had been saved in storage, partly for concern of antagonizing Putin.
“The Ukrainians are having to think differently about their own security, and in fact, some of the defensive lethal support that the US has given Ukraine over the years, they’ve had in storage containers, and I think we’ll now see them have to put that stuff out and be thinking very hard about their own civil defense,” Nuland mentioned.
She additionally confirmed within the Senate listening to that Nord Stream was on the desk, saying, “I think if President Putin moves on Ukraine, our expectation is that the pipeline will be suspended.”
Speaking to a Wall Street Journal discussion board Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to as the disaster “bigger even than Ukraine,” saying that not solely is the destiny of the previous Soviet republic at stake but additionally the bigger precept that worldwide borders shouldn’t be violated or redrawn by power.
CIA Director William Burns, a former US ambassador to Russia, additionally spoke on the discussion board. He mentioned Putin might conclude within the subsequent few months — as the bottom freezes within the marshy territory on the Russia-Ukraine border and Russia completes its army buildup — that the time is ripe for motion.
Burns added that in Putin’s view, the key European allies are “distracted with the transition beyond Chancellor Merkel in Germany” and with France making ready for presidential elections subsequent spring.
“He sees himself in a position of relative economic strength compared to where the Russian economy was a couple of years ago, with high energy prices and his eyes probably enhancing Russia leverage,” he mentioned of Putin.
Biden’s process Tuesday was to alter that view and use what little leverage he has — since it’s clear to Putin that there isn’t a circumstance wherein US or NATO troops would immediately enter any battle to defend Ukraine.
Tuesday’s summit got here on the eightieth anniversary of the Japanese assault on Pearl Harbor. Biden introduced up the shared sacrifice of the United States and the Soviet Union throughout their alliance of necessity in World War II.
But shared sacrifice was not the subject at hand.
When Biden raised the specter of new financial steps to isolate Moscow, an adviser to Putin, Yuri Ushakov, mentioned the Russian chief diminished the significance of such steps, saying that “sanctions are not a new thing for Russia.” He made no guarantees to alter the posture of Russian troops close to the border or to tug them again.
“The Russian troops are on their own territory,” Ushakov mentioned, summarizing Putin’s message to Biden. “They don’t threaten anyone.”
Today, a senior US protection division official mentioned, there are 60,000 to 70,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine. US intelligence businesses say they anticipate that determine to develop to 175,000. The largest check of whether or not the video assembly modified Putin’s thoughts will likely be whether or not that army buildup abates.
At the tip of the assembly, Putin underlined that the stakes within the present disaster have been increased for Russia than they have been for the United States, his aide mentioned. He was apparently speaking geographically — since he considers Ukraine to be a rightful a part of Russia — whereas Biden’s concern is that permitting Putin to redraw the post-Cold War traces will topic greater than 40 million Ukrainians to manage by an autocratic authorities.
Sullivan was obscure about what diplomatic alternate options Biden supplied, saying a number of instances that he needed to maintain the talks confidential to permit the leaders room for negotiation. “They have to have that house,’’ he mentioned.
But the initiatives look like a return to some variations on the Minsk accords, which offer a highway map for resolving the territorial variations — a map that many Ukrainians don’t like and the Russians haven’t obeyed since they have been signed in 2015.
