By PTI
NEW DELHI: Climate change has hampered the power of the forecasting businesses to precisely predict extreme occasions and climate bureaus the world over are specializing in augmenting the observational community density and the climate prediction modelling to enhance predictability, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has mentioned.
He additionally mentioned that although the monsoon rainfall has not proven any important pattern within the nation, the variety of heavy rainfall occasions has elevated and that of sunshine rainfall occasions has decreased on account of local weather change.
“We have got the digital data of the monsoon rainfall since 1901. Parts of north, east and northeast India show a decrease in rainfall, while some areas in the west, such as west Rajasthan, show an increase in precipitation. Thus, there is no significant trend if we consider the country as a whole — the monsoon is random and it shows large-scale variations,” the IMD chief mentioned when requested concerning the affect of local weather change on the Indian monsoon.
On July 27, the federal government had informed Parliament that Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Meghalaya and Nagaland have proven important lowering traits within the southwest monsoon rainfall through the latest 30-year interval (1989-2018, each years included).
The annual rainfall over these 5 states, together with Arunachal Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, has additionally proven important lowering traits, it mentioned.
Mohapatra mentioned an evaluation of the day-to-day rainfall knowledge since 1970, nevertheless, exhibits that the variety of very heavy rainfall days has elevated and that of sunshine or average rainfall days has decreased.
“That means if it is not raining, it is not raining. If it is raining, it is raining heavily. The rainfall is more intense when there is a low-pressure system. This is one of the most important trends found in the tropical belt, including India. Studies have proved that this increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in light precipitation are due to climate change,” he informed PTI in an interview.
The senior meteorologist defined that local weather change has elevated the floor air temperature, which in flip has elevated the evaporation fee.
Since hotter air holds extra moisture, it results in intense rainfall.
“Climate change has increased the instability in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in convective activity — thunderstorms, lightning and heavy rainfall. The severity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is also increasing. This increase in the frequency of extreme weather events is posing a challenge to forecasters. Studies show that the ability to predict heavy rainfall is hampered due to climate change,” he mentioned.
The IMD is bolstering its observational community with the augmentation of radars, automated climate stations and rain gauges and satellites to enhance predictability.
Its forecast accuracy has improved by about 30 to 40 per cent for extreme climate occasions like cyclones, heavy rains, thunderstorms, warmth waves, chilly waves and fog within the final 5 years on account of an enchancment within the observational community, modelling and computing techniques of the IMD and the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
Sister organisations such because the IITM and the NCMRWF perform atmospheric modelling and the INCOIS carries out ocean state modelling and helps the IMD’s forecasting enchancment.
“We have put up six radars in the northwest Himalayas and four more will be installed this year. The procurement process is on for eight radars in the northeast Himalayan region. There are certain gap areas in the rest of the country that will be filled up with 11 radars. The number of radars will increase from 34 at present to 67 by 2025,” Mohapatra mentioned.
The MoES additionally plans to improve its high-performance computing system — from a capability of 10 petaflops at present to 30 petaflops within the subsequent two years — which is able to assist assimilate extra knowledge into the mannequin that may then be run at increased resolutions.
At current, the IMD/MoES climate modelling system (international forecasting system) has a decision of 12 kilometres.
The goal is to make it six kilometres.
Similarly, the decision of the regional modelling system might be improved from three kilometres to 1 kilometre.
The decrease the vary of a climate mannequin, the upper its decision and the better the precision.
“We are providing forecasts up to the district and block levels currently. Going ahead, we will provide forecasts up to clusters at the panchayat level and specific locations within cities,” Mohapatra mentioned.
On local weather change growing the fragility of the Himalayas, he mentioned, “Climate change is a fact and we need to plan all our activities accordingly.”
A research by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, MoES says the frequency of mini-cloud bursts (5 cm or extra rainfall in an hour) is growing within the Himalayas.
And it might probably additionally trigger harm, Mohapatra mentioned.
The IMD chief mentioned the variety of deaths on account of cyclones, warmth waves and many others.
has lowered over time due to an enchancment within the early warning lead time and preparedness, planning, prevention and mitigation approaches.
“There has been a tremendous improvement in service delivery — weather information for health, power, agriculture, air quality, hydrology, airports and marine sectors — in the last three years,” Mohapatra, who took over because the IMD chief in 2019, mentioned.
NEW DELHI: Climate change has hampered the power of the forecasting businesses to precisely predict extreme occasions and climate bureaus the world over are specializing in augmenting the observational community density and the climate prediction modelling to enhance predictability, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has mentioned.
He additionally mentioned that although the monsoon rainfall has not proven any important pattern within the nation, the variety of heavy rainfall occasions has elevated and that of sunshine rainfall occasions has decreased on account of local weather change.
“We have got the digital data of the monsoon rainfall since 1901. Parts of north, east and northeast India show a decrease in rainfall, while some areas in the west, such as west Rajasthan, show an increase in precipitation. Thus, there is no significant trend if we consider the country as a whole — the monsoon is random and it shows large-scale variations,” the IMD chief mentioned when requested concerning the affect of local weather change on the Indian monsoon.
On July 27, the federal government had informed Parliament that Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Meghalaya and Nagaland have proven important lowering traits within the southwest monsoon rainfall through the latest 30-year interval (1989-2018, each years included).
The annual rainfall over these 5 states, together with Arunachal Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, has additionally proven important lowering traits, it mentioned.
Mohapatra mentioned an evaluation of the day-to-day rainfall knowledge since 1970, nevertheless, exhibits that the variety of very heavy rainfall days has elevated and that of sunshine or average rainfall days has decreased.
“That means if it is not raining, it is not raining. If it is raining, it is raining heavily. The rainfall is more intense when there is a low-pressure system. This is one of the most important trends found in the tropical belt, including India. Studies have proved that this increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in light precipitation are due to climate change,” he informed PTI in an interview.
The senior meteorologist defined that local weather change has elevated the floor air temperature, which in flip has elevated the evaporation fee.
Since hotter air holds extra moisture, it results in intense rainfall.
“Climate change has increased the instability in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in convective activity — thunderstorms, lightning and heavy rainfall. The severity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is also increasing. This increase in the frequency of extreme weather events is posing a challenge to forecasters. Studies show that the ability to predict heavy rainfall is hampered due to climate change,” he mentioned.
The IMD is bolstering its observational community with the augmentation of radars, automated climate stations and rain gauges and satellites to enhance predictability.
Its forecast accuracy has improved by about 30 to 40 per cent for extreme climate occasions like cyclones, heavy rains, thunderstorms, warmth waves, chilly waves and fog within the final 5 years on account of an enchancment within the observational community, modelling and computing techniques of the IMD and the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
Sister organisations such because the IITM and the NCMRWF perform atmospheric modelling and the INCOIS carries out ocean state modelling and helps the IMD’s forecasting enchancment.
“We have put up six radars in the northwest Himalayas and four more will be installed this year. The procurement process is on for eight radars in the northeast Himalayan region. There are certain gap areas in the rest of the country that will be filled up with 11 radars. The number of radars will increase from 34 at present to 67 by 2025,” Mohapatra mentioned.
The MoES additionally plans to improve its high-performance computing system — from a capability of 10 petaflops at present to 30 petaflops within the subsequent two years — which is able to assist assimilate extra knowledge into the mannequin that may then be run at increased resolutions.
At current, the IMD/MoES climate modelling system (international forecasting system) has a decision of 12 kilometres.
The goal is to make it six kilometres.
Similarly, the decision of the regional modelling system might be improved from three kilometres to 1 kilometre.
The decrease the vary of a climate mannequin, the upper its decision and the better the precision.
“We are providing forecasts up to the district and block levels currently. Going ahead, we will provide forecasts up to clusters at the panchayat level and specific locations within cities,” Mohapatra mentioned.
On local weather change growing the fragility of the Himalayas, he mentioned, “Climate change is a fact and we need to plan all our activities accordingly.”
A research by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, MoES says the frequency of mini-cloud bursts (5 cm or extra rainfall in an hour) is growing within the Himalayas.
And it might probably additionally trigger harm, Mohapatra mentioned.
The IMD chief mentioned the variety of deaths on account of cyclones, warmth waves and many others.
has lowered over time due to an enchancment within the early warning lead time and preparedness, planning, prevention and mitigation approaches.
“There has been a tremendous improvement in service delivery — weather information for health, power, agriculture, air quality, hydrology, airports and marine sectors — in the last three years,” Mohapatra, who took over because the IMD chief in 2019, mentioned.
