Russian crude oil imports into the European Union and United Kingdom fell to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from 2.6 million bpd in January, however the EU was nonetheless the most important marketplace for Russian crude, in response to the IEA.
The UK has already stopped importing Russian crude following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and the EU will ban imports from December to strip the Kremlin of income to fund the struggle.
Imports from the United States have changed about half the 800,000 barrels of misplaced Russian imports, with Norway offering round a 3rd.
The United States may quickly overtake Russia as the primary crude provider to the EU and the UK mixed — by August, US imports lagged these from Russia by simply 40,000 bpd in contrast with a 1.3 million bpd pre-war common, in response to the IEA.
Outside the EU, Russia’s prime crude oil export markets are China, India and Turkey.
What are the options to Russian crude?
Under the looming ban, the EU might want to exchange an extra 1.4 million barrels of Russian crude, with some 300,000 bpd doubtlessly coming from the United States and 400,000 bpd from Kazakhstan, the IEA has mentioned.
Norway’s largest oilfield Johan Sverdrup, which produces medium-heavy crude much like Russia’s Urals, additionally plans to ramp-up manufacturing within the fourth-quarter, doubtlessly by 220,000 bpd.
The IEA says imports from different areas such because the Middle East and Latin America can be wanted to completely meet EU demand.
Some Russian oil will proceed to circulate into the EU by way of pipelines because the ban excludes some landlocked refineries.
How a lot does the EU rely on Russian crude?
Germany, the Netherlands and Poland had been the highest importers of Russian oil in Europe final 12 months, however all three have capability to herald seaborne crude.
Landlocked nations in Eastern Europe, resembling Slovakia or Hungary, nevertheless, have few options to pipeline provides from Russia.
The EU’s dependence on Russia has additionally been underpinned by corporations resembling Rosneft and Lukoil, controlling of among the bloc’s largest refineries.
Russian crude oil flows, primarily based on loading knowledge in August, rose month-on-month to Italy and the Netherlands, the place Russian oil main Lukoil owns refineries, in response to the IEA.
The German authorities on September 16 took management of the Rosneft-owned Schwedt refinery which provides about 90% of Berlin’s gas wants. On the identical day, the Italian authorities mentioned it hoped Lukoil would discover a purchaser for its ISAB refinery in Sicily, which accounts for a fifth of the nation’s refining capability.
