Amid the Monday morning bustle of the capital on September 26, a relaxed air pervaded the 6, Ok. Kamraj Lane bungalow of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar—his official pad whereas in Lutyens’ Delhi. No slogan-shouting supporters on the lawns, nor folks searching for favours milling round. The safety personnel on the gate had been having a surprisingly simple time. The place had been a hubbub of exercise only a day earlier as Nitish ready to accompany Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav to satisfy Congress president Sonia Gandhi. With the gravitational pull of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls getting stronger by the day, the 2 leaders had mentioned one of many hottest political questions in India: the contours of an anti-BJP opposition. On that very day, Nitish had additionally attended the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) chief Om Prakash Chautala’s rally in Haryana’s Fatehabad, held to mark the 109th beginning anniversary of former deputy prime minister Devi Lal. Nitish, who had dumped the BJP and fashioned a mahagathbandhan authorities in Bihar with the RJD, Congress and Left events in August, has now emerged as a first-rate galvaniser of a doable opposition entrance. At the rally, additionally attended by Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar, Communist Party of India (Marxist) normal secretary Sitaram Yechury, Arvind Sawant of the Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal’s Sukhbir Singh Badal, Nitish spelt out a easy system. “If all these parties get together, they (BJP) won’t be able to win at all in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls,” he stated.
(From left) Sharad Pawar, Om Prakash Chautala, Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav and others at a rally in Fatehabad, Haryana, on September 25; (Photo: PTI)
Inside his sprawling bungalow, Nitish sat in his sparely furnished drawing room with shut aides—Bihar minister Sanjay Jha and Janata Dal (United) nationwide president Rajiv Ranjan alias Lalan Singh. The Bihar CM, whereas making certain that each customer was served tea, appeared unflustered by the enormity of the duty he has undertaken. Dooubtless, stitching a unified entrance amongst opposition events is a piece in progress requiring infinite endurance. It may take weeks, if not months, to fructify, says a confidant. In non-public conversations, an optimistic Nitish tells guests {that a} whole unification of the opposition, as he has been calling for, might take him throughout the nation. The endeavour, he says, is more easy than anticipated. Opposition leaders, in response to the suggestions Nitish has obtained, have been watching the BJP juggernaut gaining in power and audacity—it holds energy in 17 states and Union territories—with rising apprehension, and are anticipated to come back collectively to face the problem.
Importance of the Congress
When Nitish and Lalu met Sonia Gandhi within the night of September 25, they requested her, as president of the most important opposition get together, to additionally take the initiative for a unified entrance. Sonia is believed to have promised to carry a dialogue after the Congress presidential election. That very Sunday, not removed from Delhi, over 90 Rajasthan Congress MLAs loyal to CM Ashok Gehlot threatened to resign, throwing the get together right into a disaster. The Bihar CM has taken be aware of the developments, however he isn’t “unnecessarily worried” on the fragility displayed throughout the Congress, factors out the confidant.
“The CM has a plan in place and a lot of it hinges on regional leaders too. Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, K. Chandrashekar Rao in Telangana, M.K. Stalin in Tamil Nadu, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra, Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, Akhilesh Yadav in UP and Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar. The BJP has formidable adversaries in different regions, and we all need to ensure that these forces work in perfect harmony,” he says.
The concept of a grand anti-BJP entrance is just not new. KCR had made strenuous efforts since late 2018 and properly into 2019, earlier than the Lok Sabha polls, to construct such an alliance. He met professionalminent opposition leaders throughout the nation, however his ‘federal’, ‘non-BJP, non-Congress’ alliance didn’t materialise. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee’s exertions in direction of an ‘anti-BJP, anti-Congress’ entrance additionally met the identical destiny. The Congress, thus, was conspicuous by its absence from their plans. This is the place Nitish Kumar crucially differs. His concept of an opposition entrance—he calls it the ‘main front’—entails a rainbow coalition of political events, together with each the Congress and the Left.
Like Lalu and Pawar, Nitish believes that given its pan-India presence, the Congress is necessary as a result of it was in direct contest with the BJP in almost 200 seats in each the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls. As the BJP received most of those seats, it might endure from some anti-incumbency and with assist from regional events, the Congress can win many again. So goes the pondering. At the rally in Fatehabad, he exhorted the leaders on the dais, together with some with a powerful anti-Congress historical past, to bury their variations and work for a bigger unity.
There is prone to be some deal with expanding the opposition by assimilating various social teams with conflicting pursuits inside its fold. The idea is much like that of UPA-1 and UPA-2, with out really granting or denying management to the Congress. Besides, Nitish is against the concept of the Congress backing an alliance from outdoors, just like the United Front that fashioned two short-lived governments in 1996 and 1998 headed by H.D. Deve Gowda and I.Ok. Gujral, respectively.
Nitish first talked about a national anti-BJP mahagathbandhan on August 31, when he shared his ideas on opposition unity with KCR, who visited him in Patna. When a journalist requested KCR about his opinion, Nitish reduce in, saying, “It will not be any third front, but the main opposition front.” KCR, the votary of a non-BJP-non-Congress alliance, nodded with a smile. KCR, nevertheless, has his personal plans for uniting the opposition in addition to increasing his footprint nationally. In a gathering in Hyderabad on October 5, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi was formally renamed the Bharat Rashtra Samithi. The new get together is predicted to struggle the 2024 polls from a number of states.
Hope for the Opposition
On August 9, as Nitish snapped ties with the BJP and fashioned a authorities with the RJD, Congress and others, he set off a surge of optimism amongst opposition events. He obtained calls from a cross-section of leaders—whereas KCR paid a go to, leaders like Mamata Banerjee and Uddhav Thackeray referred to as to specific solidarity. Nitish instructed all of them to assist sew a grand alliance in opposition to the BJP. The enthusiasm within the opposition ranks is just not with out purpose. After all, a physique blow to the BJP in an electorally necessary state like Bihar was the one constructive for the reason that 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Consider additionally the demoralising impact of the BJP toppling governments in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, in addition to 5 others in the identical approach since 2014. Seeing the BJP on the receiving finish for a change, the schadenfreude was palpable. Besides, a canny actor like Nitish turning into obtainable to the opposition is itself a shift in gravity.
NITISH’S IDEA OF AN OPPOSITION FRONT—HE CALLS IT THE ‘MAIN FRONT’—INVOLVES A RAINBOW COALITION, INCLUDING BOTH THE CONGRESS AND THE LEFT PARTIES
During his go to to Delhi in the course of the first week of September, the Bihar CM met Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, Sharad Pawar, Janata Dal (Secular) chief H.D. Kumaraswamy, Sitaram Yechury, CPI’s D. Raja, Om Prakash Chautala and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav with an concept clearly to create a rainbow alliance in opposition to BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Almost all discussions Nitish has held with opposition leaders have lasted over an hour. Insiders describe the discussions as candid, with Nitish drawing on his expertise and stature to stress the pressing want to come back collectively. Then there’s the matter of prime ministership. Nitish has repeatedly stated that he’s not a PM candidate. On September 26, he instructed mediaindividuals that he had no electoral ambitions in UP for the LS polls. “It is not about me. It never was,” he stated, insisting that his solitary focus is on uniting the opposition.
While Nitish has not gone into the specifics of his conferences in his media interactions, these within the know of JD(U) technique clarify the plan. “It might sound like oversimplification, but the fact is that the BJP, at the peak of its popularity, got about 38 per cent votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It means 62 per cent of the electorate still voted against the BJP. A part of our idea is to consolidate these voters,” says a JD(U) chief.
Those with entry to the CM’s inside circle additionally add that of the 303 seats that the BJP received in 2019, simply 12 states, together with Bihar, alone contributed 262 seats, or 87 per cent of the BJP’s Lok Sabha power.
These states are Assam (9 seats), Bihar (17), Gujarat (26), Haryana (10), Karnataka (25), Madhya Pradesh (28), Maharashtra (23), Rajasthan (24), Uttar Pradesh (62), West Bengal (18), Chhattisgarh (9) and Jharkhand (11).
The JD(U) think-tank believes that the regulation of averages may carry down BJP numbers in some states the place it had completed exceedingly properly, and the place there’s little room to enhance. Like in Rajasthan, the place it had received 24 of 25 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, MP (28 of 29 seats), Karnataka (25 of 28 seats), Haryana (all 10 seats), Gujarat (all 26 seats) and Jharkhand (11 of 14 seats). The BJP, in response to the technique, must be challenged arduous in these states.
Besides, in Tamil Nadu (with a complete 39 LS seats), Kerala (20 seats), Telangana (17), Andhra Pradesh (25), Bihar (40), Punjab (13), Odisha (21) and West Bengal (42), the BJP is but to search out agency floor. Part of the plan is to maintain it that approach, via formidable alliances.
The large challenges
Having taken oath as Bihar chief minister for the eighth time on August 10, Nitish has already turn out to be the longest-serving in that function. He has little left to show in state politics. In truth, he made his intentions plain from day one, when he instructed mediapersons shortly after taking oath: “Those who won in 2014 should be concerned if they will be able to continue after 2024.” It was nothing lower than a throwing down of the gauntlet to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Clearly, although he nonetheless stays the diligent CM, sitting via hours-long conferences and poring over each doc positioned earlier than him, the 71-year-old socialist now has a political focus past his residence state. Indeed, his idea of opposition unity forward of the 2024 polls might be seen as an extension of his seven-party anti-NDA mahagathbandhan in Bihar. To make certain, Nitish is projecting it as a template for a nationwide opposition in opposition to the BJP.
The large problem for Nitish now’s to duplicate such a coalition on the national stage, the place the BJP is the massivegest beast within the political jungle and the opposition seems to be a divided lot. The voters may additionally search for a character deemed sturdy sufficient to counter PM Modi for the nationwide polls. The process, at each stage, is fraught with problem.
Take only a few examples. Now that it’s clear that the Congress is sought as a coalition accomplice, the bitter differences between it, the Left Front and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal must be put aside. The Left and the Congress are rivals in Kerala too. With all these regional gulfs to be bridged, one sees why the idea of a grand opposition unity is commonly dismissed merely as an ‘academic idea’.
A senior JD(U) chief disagrees. “Do you think we have not taken into account all of this? This is a time to take one step a day. The leaders whom Nitish Kumar met in New Delhi are all in agreement. It is time to cut down our ambition to ensure the survival of the opposition,” he says. He provides that those that can not be part of now can come on board within the post-poll situation.
Nitish appears to be assured. In off-the-record conversations, his aides recall how he made the Communists assist his candidature when he contested—and received handsomely—his first Lok Sabha election in 1989 from the Barh constituency in Bihar. Now, 33 years later and with immense governance, and coalition, credentials underneath his belt, Nitish hopes to work his powers of persuasion on opposition leaders.
Securing the house entrance
A piece of BJP politicians admit that their get together faces a large problem in Bihar in 2024, because the mixed may of Nitish and Lalu and the social coalition they draw upon seem unassailable on paper. The BJP is definitely not taking issues simple. Union residence minister Amit Shah addressed a rally in Purnia on September 23; on October 11, he’ll attend a operate in Saran to mark the beginning anniversary of socialist icon Jayaprakash Narayan.
Senior BJP chief Sushil Modi, nevertheless, rejects claims concerning the BJP getting jittery. “You cannot compare state elections with Lok Sabha polls. BJP has Narendra Modi, and a national narrative that the opposition just cannot counter, either in Bihar or elsewhere. We have 17 Lok Sabha MPs in Bihar and as per our preliminary assessment, we will win more than twice that number in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls,” he says.
Along with the leap on to the nationwide stage, Nitish has to cowl the bases in Bihar too. His new authorities, with RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav as his deputy chief minister, has accomplished two months in workplace. Though when it comes to social power, the mahagathbandhan is formidable—with sturdy backing from Yadavs, Muslims, Economically Backward Classes, Dalits, and a majority of OBCs (Other Backward Classes)—it has a number of challenges to cope with. Firstly, any CM hoping to affect the Lok Sabha polls has to current his state as an achievement, like Modi projected Gujarat in 2014. To accomplish that, Nitish should transfer in direction of fulfilling his promise of two million authorities jobs that he made on August 15. Also, his coalition, although strongly cast, has seen two RJD ministers give up their posts. Sugarcane business minister Kartikeya Singh resigned on August 31 due to a authorized case pending in opposition to him whereas agriculture minister Sudhakar Singh stepped down on October 2 after open variations with the CM on points pertaining to his division. While Tejashwi has backed Nitish on making the ministers put of their papers, coordination between the 2 events leaves quite a bit to be desired. Poll strategist Prashant Kishor, who is predicted to launch his Bihar-centric get together after his Jan Samaj Padyatra, has criticised Nitish Kumar’s outreach. He described Nitish’s current conferences with opposition leaders as ‘photo-ops’. The BJP, which is now freed from anti-incumbency worries, will aggressively consolidate and search for chinks in Nitish and Tejashwi’s armour.
Outside Bihar, although, there’s a function reversal of types for Nitish, as he endeavours to tease out the BJP’s weaknesses. It stays to be seen if he will help fashion a unified entrance out of the babel of opposition voices.
