Opinion: Naive optimism threatens Myanmar protest motion

(Written By Rodion Ebbighausen)
The violence in Myanmar exhibits that the battle between pro-democracy protesters and the navy has reached an deadlock. Protesters have to work on a brand new technique, says DW’s Rodion Ebbighausen.
Two narratives presently dominate social media in Myanmar: the sheer brutality and reprehensibility on a part of the generals, and the protesters’ willingness to battle for the restoration of democracy. The hyperlink between these narratives is the concept that good will ultimately conquer evil.
Nobody doubts the braveness and good intentions of the demonstrators, however the protest motion is not going to succeed it continues to perform on naive optimism.
No diplomatic help
The protesters should understand that they won’t obtain any outdoors help towards the navy. The UN, the US and Europe will condemn the violence in Myanmar and impose some focused sanctions on the navy, however they won’t instantly intervene within the battle. Even the decision by many former heads of states and governments is not going to change that. China and Russia will block each transfer within the UN Security Council that would enable the West to extend its clout in Myanmar. This means there are not any levers on the worldwide stage to extend stress on the generals.
Even the silent diplomacy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) can have little influence because the grouping just isn’t united on the Myanmar subject. Bloc members Thailand, Laos and Vietnam even participated within the Armed Forces Day celebrations in Myanmar’s capital over the weekend, which coincided with safety forces killing greater than 100 protesters.
Dream of a federal military
Some supporters of the protest motion and the opposition parliament hope there may very well be a federal military within the nation. After a long time of preventing towards the central authorities, varied armed ethnic teams are anticipated to hitch arms with the protest motion and battle towards the navy. An identical try was made within the early Nineties, nevertheless it failed.
Armed teams in Myanmar have completely different pursuits. At the identical time, China has decisive affect on insurgent armies such because the United Wa State Army. It can be a false impression {that a} federal military would pose a critical problem to Myanmar generals. Even if all insurgent armies work along with an inexperienced protest motion, they can’t compete with the battle-tested and well-equipped “Tatmadaw” (the Myanmar military).
Although what’s taking place in Myanmar seems to be like a civil battle, the navy has not but used heavy weaponry towards the inhabitants. Tanks or helicopters aren’t but firing at protesters in Yangon and Mandalay. The 10-year-long Syrian battle has proven how horrifying civil wars may be. The dream of a federal military might simply flip into an countless nightmare.
Direct confrontation means defeat
The protesters can’t win by a direct confrontation with the navy. There is a scarcity of worldwide help, cash, expertise and unity between ethnic teams and the protest motion.
Instead of risking lives in hopeless avenue battles, pro-democracy supporters have to debate what small steps they’ll absorb the long term. Instead of hoping for a fast victory, they should work on a long-term technique.