A number of days after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, a convoy of militants drove via town of Idlib in northwestern Syria in vehicles bearing the group’s white-and-black flags, honking horns and firing their weapons within the air.
The celebrations by an al-Qaida affiliate in a distant nook of war-torn Syria have been an expression of the triumph felt by radical Islamic teams from the Gaza Strip to Pakistan and West Africa who see America’s violence-marred exit from Afghanistan a possibility to reassert their presence.
For such teams, the chaotic US departure following the collapse of safety forces it had educated for twenty years is a present, underlining their message that Washington finally abandons its allies, and that defeating highly effective armies is feasible with sufficient endurance.
“The success of the Taliban opens the way for radical groups to step up their recruitment operations globally. It is much easier for them now, and there is more receptivity,” mentioned Hassan Abu Haniyeh, an skilled on Islamic militants primarily based in Amman, Jordan.
Despite the billions of {dollars} spent by the US and NATO over practically 20 years to construct up Afghan safety forces, the Taliban seized practically all of Afghanistan in simply over every week amid the US troop pullout. The fundamentalist group swept into Kabul on Aug. 15 after the federal government collapsed and embattled President Ashraf Ghani fled the nation.
Since then, tens of hundreds of individuals determined to flee a rustic ruled by the Taliban have been making an attempt to flee or have already got been evacuated in a mammoth Western airlift.
“The events unfolding in Afghanistan have given jihadi groups and U.S. adversaries reason to celebrate, and America’s allies in the region reason to feel anxious,” mentioned Abu Haniyeh. “They now feel that America might dropthem one day, same as it did the government of Ashraf Ghani.”
There are issues that Afghanistan will as soon as once more grow to be a base for militants to plot in opposition to the West, very similar to the Sept. 11, 2001, assaults that triggered the U.S. invasion.
“This is the story that is going to impact and influence jihadi fighters around the globe for the next decade, the same way as the victory over the Soviets in Afghanistan in the ’80s inspired the jihadis around the world during the whole 1990s and even afterwards,” mentioned Elie Tenenbaum, director of safety research heart on the French Institute of International Relations.
In a twist, the Taliban victory additionally boosted the fortunes of their rivals in Afghanistan- a neighborhood department of the Islamic State community. On Thursday, the affiliate claimed duty for the suicide assault that killed scores of individuals outdoors Kabul’s airport, together with 13 US service members.
The Taliban now should take care of an emboldened IS, which is difficult their rule with militants which are much more radical. The group’s ranks have been bolstered after the Taliban freed prisoners throughout an advance via Afghanistan.
An editorial within the Islamic State group’s e-newsletter final week derided the Taliban, accusing them of collaborating with the US.
“America actually did it. They finally raised a ‘Mullah Bradley’,” the editorial mentioned, utilizing a reputation it has coined for the Taliban in an obvious reference to the US preventing automobile. The group additionally promised a brand new part in its “blessed jihad” in opposition to the West.
Analysts say the Taliban’s success and the US withdrawal galvanizes and offers a motivational increase to America’s adversaries and jihadi teams all over the world.
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of Lebanon’s Shiite militant group Hezbollah, mentioned in a speech Friday that what’s unfolding in Afghanistan “is a portrayal of America’s full defeat and the U.S. demise and failure in the region.”
In northern Syria, an announcement by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the al-Qaida affiliate there, mentioned the Taliban victory proved no occupation can final endlessly. The chief of the novel Palestinian Islamic Hamas motion, which guidelines theGaza Strip, congratulated the Taliban’s chief on the demise of the U.S. occupation.
In Pakistan, the chief of Jaish-e-Mohammad, Mohammad Azhur, used the group’s publication to cheer the Taliban victory, saying it’s going to encourage mujahedeen, or holy warriors, “the world over to continue their struggle for Islam.”Amir Rana, government director of the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies, mentioned the occasions in Afghanistan may encourage hard-line Sunni teams who’re waging sectarian battles in opposition to Shiites. The anti-Shiite teams Lashkar-e-Janghvi and Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan have championed the Taliban victory, elevating fears they may restart their lethal actions.
Heni Nsaibia, a senior Sahel researcher on the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, mentioned the Taliban takeover could be a motivational increase for extremists in West Africa, displaying that endurance and perseverance can repay.
The largest hazard, based on the analysts, is in unstable international locations with a weak central authorities and a historical past of insurgency, comparable to Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya.
There are echoes of 2014, when the Islamic State group sprang from the chaos of conflicts in Iraq and Syria, seized an enormous stretch of territory straddling each international locations, and declared a ‘caliphate’after US-trained Iraqi forces collapsed. Terrorist assaults in Europe and past adopted earlier than IS was defeated in 2017, however makes an attempt to regroup have been seen prior to now two years, with new assaults in Iraq and Syria.
A report back to the UN Security Council final week mentioned the menace to worldwide safety from the Islamic State group is rising, pointing to an “alarming” enlargement of its associates in Africa and its give attention to a comeback in Syria and Iraq.
The report mentioned IS and different terrorist teams have taken benefit of |the disruption, grievances and growth setbacks” brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Abu Haniyeh, the analyst in Amman, mentioned the perceived defeat of US forces in Afghanistan by a radical group is reverberating amongst annoyed people all over the world and could have widespread ramifications within the coming years.
“It gives hope for extremist groups the world over,” he mentioned.
