Mamata Banerjee has emerged as the first challenger to Prime Minister Modi midway into his second time period. However, the query that can be requested of any severe challenger to Modi’s 2024 re-election bid is whether or not they have a practical path to the highest job. What will it take for a pacesetter like Mamata to succeed in the 272 mark? For starters, the largest hurdle is clearly the BJP, which has constantly hit the midway mark by itself for the reason that introduction of Narendra Modi. For any non-BJP chief to even stay within the recreation subsequently, the BJP not having the ability to hit the midway mark by itself turns into a prerequisite. However, that is hardly sufficient. Even in a state of affairs the place the BJP misses the midway mark, it should have appreciable leeway over any challenger because it should deliver just one or two of the ten odd kingmakers on board, versus any challenger who would want each kingmaker or danger dropping all their positive factors.In a state of affairs the place the BJP is unable to succeed in the midway mark and a short window does open, the Trinamool Congress must be in a commanding place to rally the remainder of the opposition behind it. Will the Trinamool be capable to win each seat in Bengal? Will the inroads that it makes outdoors Bengal be sufficient to transform a few of them into seats? In different phrases, is there any method the celebration can win round 50 seats by itself? This is much more unlikely than the BJP lacking the midway mark.Even in a state of affairs the place the BJP doesn’t attain the midway mark and the Trinamool manages to cobble 50 seats, the query of the stability 220 to 230 seats and the way they are going to be composed stays. If the Trinamool had its method, these 220 to 230 seats could be neatly divided between non-Congress regional events, with none of them crossing Trinamool’s tally of fifty on their very own. And that is the place the elephant within the room comes into focus. The DMK, the NCP, the Communists, the SP, the RJD, the JMM, the AAP and the others put collectively are unlikely to win 220 to 230 seats by themselves, particularly with out the Congress Party. The grand previous celebration continues to stay the only different to the BJP in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal, and huge components of Karnataka and Assam. So even when many within the opposition are joyful concerning the Congress Party taking yet one more hit, the quintessential prerequisite of BJP not hitting the midway mark is basically depending on a half-decent Congress efficiency.Supposing the Congress wins much less seats than the Trinamool. This is an unlikely state of affairs within the occasion that 272 stays elusive to the BJP, however allow us to play alongside. In such a state of affairs, the Congress will swallow its satisfaction and put its weight behind Trinamool or anybody else for that matter. But once more, allow us to not overlook that even when the likes of Stalin and Lalu Prasad Yadav throw their weight behind Mamata, this unlikely state of affairs would require the likes of Naveen Patnaik and Jagan Reddy taking part in ball as nicely for Mamata to stake declare. In the occasion that the BJP doesn’t attain the midway mark, the Congress successful extra seats than Mamata is a likelier state of affairs. As I write this, I understand that I’m solely constructing on a load of gasoline that’s utterly divorced from floor actuality, however when you have come this far, I counsel you retain studying as a result of the next is the state of affairs that’s most entertaining to think about.Imagine that Mamata badmouths the Congress for the following two and a half years and cobbles collectively a 3rd entrance which does exceptionally nicely. The BJP is unable to succeed in the midway mark. The Congress and the third entrance, largely fabricated from former UPA members, get the numbers that enable them to return collectively and type a authorities. Only one small problem- the Congress has gained extra seats than the Trinamool. Will Mamata silently retreat to Kolkata after placing in all of the exhausting work, whereas Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi runs the nation? As issues stand right this moment, that is much more unlikely than the BJP not touching the midway mark or the Trinamool successful 50 seats. Mamata Banerjee won’t blink as a result of she has nothing to lose. The Congress Party, after its longest out-of-power stint since independence, would have every little thing to lose. To maintain the BJP out of energy, they’d most likely buckle and even help a non-BJP authorities from the surface with zero interference if that’s what was demanded of them. Mamata has nothing to lose, and he or she is aware of this.I consider that is what drives her right this moment. She has gained West Bengal convincingly and it isn’t going anyplace till 2026. The Congress then again has to face elections in all three states that it guidelines earlier than the 2024 basic elections, and a state of affairs the place the grand previous celebration fights the 2024 elections with out a single state authorities, appears more likely than most of the different ludicrous situations I’ve put forth on this piece. After rising as one of many solely brilliant spots in an opposition that lies in tatters, and Bengal 2026 being distant, Mamata is aware of she has nothing to lose, regardless that it’s unlikely that she’s going to profit from the prevailing chaos. She additionally is aware of that she owes nothing to the Congress Party, a celebration that she walked out on for not getting her due, a celebration who’s authorities she propped up between 2009 and 2014, and a celebration that has solely dragged the opposition down since 2014.She will go all out, broaden her footprint, try and make inroads in unimaginable terrains, and hope that life offers her an excellent hand. And she won’t blink first in relation to the Congress Party.