Recent data indicates a drop in India’s air passenger numbers in June following a brief rebound. The Ministry of Civil Aviation reported that after the end of the India-Pakistan conflict, domestic air travel saw a recovery. However, following the Air India accident on June 12, there was a renewed decline. Average daily passengers in April were at 490,000, but a dip was witnessed in May due to the conflict. Numbers returned to 490,000 before the June 12 incident, subsequently falling to 460,000.
International travel has also been impacted since May. Following the crash of Air India-171 in Ahmedabad, resulting in 241 fatalities, Air India reduced its international flights using wide-body aircraft by 15%. The report indicates that Air India canceled 83 wide-body operations between June 12 and June 17. Average daily international passengers declined from 118,000 in April to 113,000 in May and 102,000 in June.
While lower Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices could provide some relief, the current geopolitical situation is creating challenges. Crude oil prices have increased by around 20% since the start of June, reaching $77/bbl as of June 19. This surge may adversely affect earnings during the seasonally weak second quarter.