By 2030, India could join the ranks of upper middle-income countries, boasting per capita income above $4,000 and rubbing shoulders with China and Indonesia. This projection from SBI Research’s latest report signals robust economic prospects.
The nation’s growth story is accelerating dramatically. It took 60 years post-independence for a $1 trillion GDP, but only seven more to double it by 2014. Subsequently, $3 trillion came in 2021, with $4 trillion on track for 2025, and $5 trillion looming in two years.
Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI detailed per capita progress: $1,000 in 2009 (62 years post-independence), $2,000 by 2019, $3,000 by 2026. The past decade’s superior growth rates have positioned India as a global economic frontrunner.
To realize ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047, 7.5% annual per capita GNI growth is essential. India’s 8.3% CAGR over 23 years bodes well, but a rising high-income bar to $18,000 necessitates 8.9%. With population and inflation, 11.5% nominal GDP growth is key.
SBI urges ongoing reforms to replicate pre-pandemic high-growth phases, making the $4,500 per capita upper middle-income entry realistic and paving the way for high-income aspirations.