Heightened vigilance grips Taipei following dire predictions from the Global Taiwan Institute that China’s PLA may unleash expansive operations around the island by 2027. The think tank’s analysis paints a picture of relentless escalation, with military exercises increasingly probing Taiwan’s defenses under guises of coastal patrols.
In a Washington seminar on future Taiwan strategies, GTI Director John Dotson dissected recent PLA forays south and southeast of Taiwan’s main island. The integration of Coast Guard assets, he argued, serves China’s propaganda by recasting invasions as lawful interventions. This tactic aligns with Beijing’s narrative control, often scapegoating Taiwan’s President William Lai or U.S. weapon sales for drill justifications.
Non-resident fellow Ann Kovalevski projected 2026 as the PLA’s capstone year for acquiring takeover capacity, per local media. She flagged anticipated surges in Chinese armaments, challenging Taiwan and Washington to innovate in preserving equilibrium. Recalling Admiral Davidson’s forecast of Xi’s 2027 directive, analysts deem this period transformative for strait tensions.
GTI spotlighted 2025’s pressure cooker, featuring the ‘Justice Mission 2025’ amid claims of reactive maneuvers—claims the institute debunks as premeditated. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau unveiled a multifaceted assault: cyber strikes, over 19,000 divisive messages, and rampant hacks aimed at eroding confidence in leadership and resilience.
A report to lawmakers identified 799 irregular online profiles amplifying skepticism toward America, Lai, and defense capabilities. These hybrid operations form China’s playbook to coerce without conventional conflict. With stakes encompassing Indo-Pacific security, proactive measures are imperative to avert a crisis that could redraw global maps.