Japan’s political scene tilts toward the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as polls forecast a majority win in the upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8. Citing dual surveys from Nikkei and Yomiuri Shimbun, media reports highlight the ruling party’s edge in voter sentiment.
Nikkei data points to LDP surpassing its 198 pre-dissolution seats, targeting over 233 in the 465-seat house—a clear majority. Strength is evident in 40% of 289 single-member districts, especially conservative bastions in Kumamoto, Yamaguchi, and Tokushima. Over 150 contests, however, promise fierce opposition fights.
In proportional seats, LDP could grab 70 or more, improving on last election’s 59. Teaming with Japan Innovation Party (JIP), the alliance projects 261 seats, dominating all committees. CRA opposition, down from 167, might settle for under 100: roughly 40 district wins and 40 proportional.
Yomiuri reinforces LDP’s regional prowess in Chugoku and Kyushu, with traditional bases sweeping all seats. JIP remains robust in Osaka despite proportional woes; CRA struggles broadly.
Prime Minister Sane Takaiichi’s January 23 dissolution—approved by cabinet and unprecedented in 60 years at session onset—aims to solidify support lacking since October. Beforehand, LDP’s narrow lower house hold and upper house minority demanded cross-aisle deals for laws.
Voters now decide if LDP retains power unchallenged. A majority would streamline policymaking, addressing economy, defense, and demographics in Japan’s evolving landscape.