March 16 marks D-day for 37 Rajya Sabha seats from 10 states, igniting a frenzy of political maneuvering. While NDA anticipates gains over INDIA bloc, the alliance’s biggest foe might be itself, especially in Bihar and Maharashtra where partner demands clash.
Current holders: INDIA 25, NDA 12. NDA could add 3-4, with BJP poised for nine new seats. Bihar demands attention—five vacancies, 41 votes needed. NDA’s 202 MLAs fall short of 205; opposition’s 35 plus AIMIM (5) and BSP (1) could claim one.
The Bihar formula—BJP 2, JD(U) 2, one wildcard—sparks war among LJP, HAM, RLSP. Resolution eludes, heightening drama. Maharashtra’s seven seats need 37 votes; Mahayuti’s 235 ensure six, but Shiv Sena’s two-seat ask versus BJP’s 3+1 (RPI) brews tension. Pawar’s independent ploy risks cross-votes.
Regional snapshots: Tamil Nadu (DMK 4, AIADMK 1, one open); Bengal (TMC 4, BJP vs CPI(M)); Odisha (BJP 2-3, BJD 1-2); Assam (BJP 2, Congress-AIUDF 1); Haryana (1 each BJP-Congress); Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Himachal lean Congress.
Shah’s February 25 Bihar visit, possibly with Nitish, aims to stitch alliances. Projections: NDA net gain, INDIA loss. Yet, the narrative shifts from numbers to negotiation prowess. Unity preserved means upper house edge; fractures invite opposition glee.