Global markets are on edge as Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi delivers a bombshell prediction: Middle East warfare lasting ‘a few days’ more could trigger force majeure across Gulf oil exporters, slamming the brakes on supplies and catapulting crude to $150 per barrel in weeks. Natural gas would follow, potentially reaching $40 per MMBtu.
Speaking to the Financial Times, al-Kaabi didn’t mince words. ‘Those nations yet to declare force majeure will have no choice soon. Every Gulf exporter must act to shield themselves legally.’
The catalyst? Naval routes through critical straits. If ships can’t pass, supply chains collapse. ‘Two to three weeks, and oil hits $150,’ he forecasted bluntly.
This week’s frenzy saw Brent crude leap 20%, closing Friday with a 3% pop above $89 per barrel. WTI outpaced it at 25% gains, settling at $86—levels unseen since spring 2024.
Qatar moved first, imposing force majeure at Ras Laffan, its premier LNG plant, after an Iranian drone assault. Amid ongoing evaluations, the minister revealed dire logistics: just 6-7 of 128 LNG carriers are operational. Even post-attack halts, restarts loom months away.
Reports of strikes on 10+ vessels, coupled with insurance spikes, have shipping companies fleeing Gulf waters. Iran’s aggressive strikes—including on Bahrain’s refining infrastructure—have supercharged the rally. Stakeholders from Wall Street to Main Street watch anxiously as geopolitical fires rage.