A new study paints a picture of deepening US-China economic separation, with their bilateral trade now representing a slim 2 percent of global trade—down from 2.7 percent in 2024. The findings come from Thursday’s DHL Global Connectedness Report.
Partnering with NYU’s Stern School, DHL shows that despite tariffs, policy flux, and geopolitical friction, international economic bonds endure. The report signals ongoing divergence between the top two economies even as globalization thrives.
The pinnacle came in 2015 at 3.6 percent; relentless decline followed, to 2.7 percent in 2024 and about 2 percent through early 2025. Cross-border investments are negligible, below 1 percent globally.
Worldwide, connectedness hit 25 percent in 2025, equaling 2022 records across trade, finance, info, and people flows (0-100 index).
DHL’s John Pearson noted, ‘Nations and firms adeptly maintain global connections in uncertainty.’ Global solutions demand such unity, he added, citing poverty and climate change.
Post-COVID, 2025 trade surged fastest since 2017, boosted by US tariff-anticipatory shipments and AI demand. AI goods drove 42 percent of WTO-tracked growth in merchandise trade for the year’s first three quarters.
Future outlook: 2.6 percent yearly goods trade rise to 2029, consistent with the last decade. Weakened Washington-Beijing links don’t spell globalization’s end.