With the Bihar Assembly elections approaching, political parties are engaged in discussions about seat-sharing. The focus is on the NDA, which is currently in power, and the role of Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV). The JD(U) and BJP, key components of the NDA, are expected to contest on approximately 100 and 105 seats respectively.
In the 2020 elections, JD(U) contested 115 seats and won 43, while BJP contested 110 seats, securing 74 wins. Despite the differing strike rates, Nitish Kumar remained the alliance leader. The attention is on Chirag Paswan’s party’s strike rate, given their seat demands. This article examines the LJP’s electoral history in Bihar.
Chirag Paswan’s party contested independently in the previous Assembly elections. It is expected to be part of the NDA this time. Reports suggest Chirag is seeking 40 seats, an amount unlikely to be granted. Sources say around 20 seats is a more probable outcome, as the BJP and JD(U) are working to balance seat allocations with other allies like the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha.
Ram Vilas Paswan formed the LJP in 2000, and it contested the February 2005 Assembly elections. The party focused on Extremely Backward Class (EBC) voters. It allied with the Congress to oppose Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, fielding 178 candidates and winning 29 seats, resulting in a 12.62% vote share. Despite an impressive initial performance, no coalition secured a majority. President’s rule was then imposed, leading to the Assembly’s dissolution.
Fresh elections were held in October 2005. The LJP contested 203 seats, securing only 10 wins, and the vote share dropped to 11.10%. In 2010, the LJP allied with the RJD, contesting 75 seats and winning only 3, with the vote share decreasing to 6.74%.
In 2015, the LJP contested 42 seats under the NDA. The party’s performance continued to decline, winning just 2 seats, and the vote share dropped to 4.83%. After a party split, Chirag Paswan established LJP(RV) and contested the 2020 elections independently, leaving the NDA. The party fielded candidates in 135 seats, winning a single seat, but the vote share increased to 5.66%.
During the 2020 elections, Chirag’s departure from the NDA affected the JD(U). Political analysts suggest that Chirag’s decision to field candidates against the JD(U) caused significant damage. In 64 seats, the LJP candidates obtained more votes than the winning candidates’ margins. LJP is now citing its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where they received a vote share of over 6%, to justify their demand for 40 seats, arguing this showcases growing support.