The question of who will occupy the Chief Minister’s chair in Bihar following the November 14 results remains a central point of political discussion. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent comments suggesting the legislative party will decide the next CM have fueled speculation that the BJP might push for its own candidate if the NDA wins, potentially sidelining Nitish Kumar. However, seasoned political analysts deem this scenario highly improbable given the complex political alliances and historical voting patterns in Bihar.
The upcoming Bihar assembly elections are characterized by several direct electoral contests, particularly between Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD. The JD(U) is competing in 101 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is contesting 96. Out of these, 59 seats are direct face-offs between the JD(U) and RJD, a number that rises to 71 when including Left parties. These specific constituencies are viewed as crucial as they are less likely to favor the BJP, aligning with a long-standing political strategy in Bihar to limit the BJP’s influence.
Analysis of the 2020 Bihar elections reveals that the RJD achieved a strong strike rate of 67.6% against the JD(U) in these 71 seats, winning 48 out of 75 contested constituencies. The Mahagathbandhan narrowly missed forming the government. The JD(U) performed poorly in these direct contests, securing only 21 seats. The independent campaigns of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha in 2020 proved detrimental to the JD(U), contributing to losses on 13 of these seats. With both leaders now aligned with the NDA, their presence is expected to alter these results in favor of the JD(U).
The integration of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha into the NDA is anticipated to consolidate crucial Dalit and Koeri vote banks, which could significantly boost the JD(U)’s seat count. In the 2020 elections, Chirag Paswan’s solo bid cost the NDA 42 seats, with the JD(U) bearing the brunt of 36 lost seats. Upendra Kushwaha’s separate candidacy also resulted in the JD(U) losing five seats. Their current alliance within the NDA could help the JD(U) recover these seats.
Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is contesting 29 seats, a number that includes many seats lost by the NDA in 2020. Thirteen of these have historically been unwinnable for the NDA across multiple election cycles. Based on current data and expert assessments, it is unlikely that the BJP can effectively sideline Nitish Kumar. Should the BJP attempt to force a change, Nitish Kumar might find a path to ally with the RJD, leading to a significant shift in Bihar’s political power structure.