The 2025 Bihar Assembly Election has concluded with a decisive victory for the NDA, marking a significant defeat for Tejashwi Yadav and the Mahagathbandhan. By November 14th, vote trends overwhelmingly favored the BJP-JD(U) alliance, projecting them to win over 185 seats, while the RJD-Congress-Left coalition was estimated to secure only around 54 seats. This electoral outcome indicates a rejection of the opposition’s campaign strategy and leadership.
Several key factors contributed to the Mahagathbandhan’s electoral failure:
**Strategic Misstep in Candidate Selection:** The RJD’s decision to field a disproportionately high number of Yadav candidates (52, or 36% of their total) was a critical error. While aimed at bolstering their core support base, this strategy backfired by reinforcing a ‘casteist’ image and alienating non-Yadav voters, including upper castes and EBCs, who aligned with the NDA. The BJP successfully exploited this by promoting a narrative of being an alternative to ‘Yadav dominance.’
**Poor Coalition Dynamics:** Tejashwi Yadav’s apparent RJD-centric approach led to strained relationships with alliance partners. Seat-sharing negotiations were contentious, and allies felt marginalized, impacting the coalition’s unity and the effectiveness of vote transfers. Branding the manifesto as ‘Tejashwi’s Pledge’ and reducing the visibility of allied leaders in campaign materials weakened the Mahagathbandhan’s collective front.
**Lack of Credible Policy Framework:** The Mahagathbandhan’s campaign was characterized by grand but unsubstantiated promises, such as universal government jobs and extensive social welfare programs. The absence of a clear, detailed, and financially viable plan for implementing these pledges led to voter skepticism and perceptions of unrealistic promises.
**Negative Perception of Minority Appeasement:** The alliance faced criticism for an alleged ‘Muslim-first’ approach. This narrative, amplified by opponents, generated a backlash among other communities and polarized the electorate. The BJP effectively used past controversies, like the Waqf Bill debate, to further divide voters against the Mahagathbandhan.
**Ambivalent Approach to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Legacy:** Tejashwi Yadav’s strategy of embracing his father’s social justice ideals while attempting to distance the party from the ‘Jungle Raj’ stigma created a confusing public image. The selective use of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s image in campaign materials allowed the NDA to attack Tejashwi for appearing ashamed of his father’s past, undermining any narrative of generational change.