The Bihar Assembly elections are expected to be announced either in late September or early October. Subsequently, the seat-sharing arrangements within the NDA will be declared. The formula for seat distribution is finalized, with agreements in place among the NDA partners. A meeting of senior leaders will determine the final distribution.
The seat distribution is likely to follow the framework of the previous assembly elections, although adjustments will be made to accommodate Chirag Paswan. Sources indicate that he is requesting more than forty seats. According to BJP sources, Paswan’s demand for a larger number of seats is a political strategy to maintain his supporters’ morale. Sources suggest that Chirag Paswan is considered essential for the alliance, and his views will be considered during seat allocation. However, the JDU is reluctant to grant Paswan more than 20 seats.
Historically, Nitish Kumar’s relationships with Ram Vilas Paswan and Chirag Paswan have been marked by varying degrees of amicability. This situation could potentially affect Chirag’s position during the seat allocation process. Both the BJP and JDU have agreed to contest over 100 seats each, but the JDU may contest slightly more seats to assert its leadership role in Bihar. Additionally, some seats will be allocated to Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha.
The elections are expected to be held in two to three phases, with Nitish Kumar leading the campaign. He will decide the future course after winning the election. There are concerns about Nitish Kumar’s health, but he will make the decisions in this regard. The Bihar Assembly elections might be conducted in two to three phases, with the dates determined considering Diwali and Chhath Puja. The term of the Bihar Assembly concludes on November 22, 2025, thus necessitating the completion of the election process beforehand.
Diwali is on October 20 this year, while Chhath Puja is scheduled between October 25-28. In 2020, the elections were held in three phases, whereas in 2015, they took place in five phases. In 2020, the first phase of voting took place on October 28, covering 71 assembly seats. The second phase occurred on November 3, involving 94 assembly seats. The third and final phase took place on November 7, with voting on 78 assembly seats, and the counting of votes was on November 10, 2020.