As the 2025 Bihar elections loom, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to spearhead the NDA’s campaign, commencing with rallies in Samastipur and Begusarai on October 24. These initial events are critical for setting the tone and evaluating the potential impact of PM Modi’s campaign efforts in a key battleground state.
The BJP’s electoral strategy in Bihar has historically leveraged PM Modi’s ability to rally voters. In the 2020 Assembly polls, his participation in 12 rallies was instrumental, contributing to the NDA securing a 61 percent win rate in the covered constituencies. This pattern highlights his significant influence on the electorate.
The 2020 alliance, comprising the BJP, JD(U), VIP, and HAM, saw considerable success in districts like Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur, and the Champaran regions, where Modi’s rallies yielded a high strike rate of 72 percent. Conversely, areas such as Sasaram and Patna presented challenges, indicating that the Prime Minister’s influence is not uniformly effective across the state.
Data from rallies in Darbhanga, Araria, and Saharsa further illustrates this point, with an impressive 85 percent win rate in these districts. However, other regions like Chhapra and Samastipur showed more varied results, demonstrating the complex electoral dynamics at play.
The 2015 Bihar elections serve as a crucial reference point. In that year, despite a robust campaign by PM Modi, the NDA struggled, winning only 27 percent of the seats covered by his 26 rallies. This outcome was significantly influenced by the absence of Nitish Kumar in the NDA, who had joined the opposition.
For the 2025 elections, PM Modi is slated for an extensive campaign, dedicating six days to the state. The crucial factor for the NDA is the partnership with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Their joint efforts in 2020 led to a significant victory, contrasting sharply with their opposition-led defeat in 2015.
Recognizing the importance of local leadership, the BJP is employing a calculated approach to PM Modi’s campaign schedule, focusing on strategic deployment. The central question for the upcoming Bihar polls revolves around the enduring strength of the Modi-Nitish coalition and its ability to translate political momentum into electoral victories.