High-frequency signals are heralding faster economic expansion for India in FY26’s final quarter, prompting economists to lift the full-year GDP growth projection to 7.6 percent under the refreshed GDP series. This revision from 7.4 percent reflects deepening resilience across key sectors.
‘Fiscal deficit implications from the new series are limited and non-persistent,’ stated Jahnavi Prabhakar of Bank of Baroda. She maintains a 7-7.5 percent growth call for FY27, aligning with the achievable 7.6 percent for FY26.
At the heart of this optimism is manufacturing’s projected 11.5 percent surge—a healthy upgrade from 9.3 percent—sustained over three consecutive years. Trade, hospitality, and tourism are set to follow suit at 10.1 percent, doubling last year’s pace.
Nominal growth gets a lift from exports climbing to 9.6 percent and PFCE holding at 8.9 percent. Post-GST tweaks, consumption has rebounded strongly, with urban spending leading the charge—a boon for domestic demand.
Trade tariff flux, particularly U.S. revisions, introduces caution, but emerging deals elsewhere could offset risks effectively.
New series figures indicate Q3 FY26 GVA growth of 7.8 percent, eclipsing FY25’s 7.4 percent, thanks to broad-based services gains—trade and hotels jumping to 11 percent from 6.7 percent—and manufacturing prowess. GDP rebasing won’t derail fiscal stability.
India’s economy, buoyed by these trends, appears primed for a stellar close to FY26, reinforcing its status as a global growth engine amid uncertainties.