Against a backdrop of global volatility and geopolitical risks, India’s growth story remains compelling, as outlined in the RBI’s latest update. Fresh trade accords with the European Union and advancing US negotiations promise to anchor high-speed development over the extended horizon.
Central bank head Sanjay Malhotra pointed to moderated price pressures enabling growth-friendly policies alongside steady finances. ‘Our focus is on fulfilling economic requirements and preserving momentum,’ he affirmed.
Leading indicators forecast vigor into Q3 2025-26 and further. Real GDP is tipped to hit 7.4% in 2025-26, markedly above prior levels. Private demand and fixed investments have shouldered the load despite soft net exports from import surges.
Supply dynamics shine with services at the forefront and manufacturing rebounding, eyeing 7.3% GVA rise. For 2026-27, farming stands on firm ground with full reservoirs, vigorous rabi planting, and promising yields.
Manufacturing draws energy from sharpened corporate edges and unorganized recovery; construction holds strong. Services secure continuity via robust home demand. Consumption patterns endure, rural appetite firm on agricultural tailwinds and labor improvements.
The EU pact’s signing and US progress herald a new era of trade security. RBI’s analysis reveals an economy primed for longevity, blending domestic strengths with global partnerships.