A new report exposes the deepening divide in US-China economic relations, with their bilateral trade now just 2% of global volumes—down from 2.7% in 2024. The DHL Global Connectedness Report, co-authored with NYU Stern and published Thursday, chronicles this shift against a backdrop of steadfast global integration.
Heightened tariffs, policy volatility, and geopolitical strains have accelerated the decline from a 2015 high of 3.6%. Through the first nine months of 2025, the share hovered near 2%, while mutual investments languish under 1% of global flows.
Counterintuitively, worldwide connectedness remains robust at 25%—level with 2022 records—spanning trade, capital, knowledge, and human mobility on a comprehensive 0-100 metric.
‘In uncertain times, countries and companies demonstrate remarkable ability to preserve international bonds,’ remarked DHL Express CEO John Pearson. He advocated for collective action on poverty and climate challenges.
Global merchandise trade in 2025 marked its briskest expansion since 2017 (barring COVID quirks), propelled by anticipatory US shipments ahead of tariffs and AI hardware demand. WTO data attributes 42% of early-2025 growth to AI products.
The outlook remains positive yet measured: annual trade growth of 2.6% through 2029, aligning with decade-long trends. While superpower trade cools, globalization’s engine hums on.