United in opposition

On August 20, the Congress president Sonia Gandhi held a digital assembly with the leaders of 18 different political events in opposition to the BJP, which is in energy on the Centre. This was the third such assembly convened by the Congress’s prime management. During Parliament’s monsoon session, Rahul Gandhi had met with opposition leaders twice, internet hosting a breakfast for them on one event. These developments are being seen as the primary concerted strikes by the Congress to create an alliance of anti-BJP events since Prime Minister Narendra Modi first got here to energy in 2014.

While the following Lok Sabha election is three years away, this early alliance-building appears to have been triggered by the realisation that opposition events have to formulate a cohesive and constant narrative towards the BJP to make the most of the general public despair ensuing from the lack of lives and financial devastation attributable to the Covid-19 pandemic. There have been different catalysts too. Buoyed by a complete victory over the BJP within the West Bengal meeting election, chief minister and TMC (Trinamool Congress) chief Mamata Banerjee additionally visited the nationwide capital to satisfy opposition leaders, together with these from the Congress, setting herself up as a possible lynchpin for an anti-BJP alliance. Prior to that, the NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) strongman Sharad Pawar had held parleys with opposition leaders too. These developments have prompted the Congress to stake its declare to the management place within the opposition house. The management concern, nonetheless, appears to be the least of the considerations amongst non-Congress opposition events. Most leaders concur that the electoral success of any opposition alliance will rely on pragmatic seat-sharing, guided by the organisational energy of assorted events in numerous states. “There was no need to even discuss the leadership. There is a consensus that we will follow the model of cooperative federalism. Whichever party is strong in a particular region will take the lead in that zone. So, if the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) has to perform well in Bihar, the Congress must also deliver in states where it is in direct contest against the BJP. There is no friction,” says Professor Manoj Kumar Jha, RJD Rajya Sabha MP.While this appears a workable plan on paper, it’s the efficiency of the Congress that may ultimately decide the alliance’s success. It stays the one celebration with a pan-India presence, making it by default the pivot of the alliance. Yet, electorally talking, it at the moment appears the weakest amongst all opposition events. In 108 Lok Sabha seats throughout 11 states (see graphic, Head to Head), the Congress and the BJP are locked in virtually direct contests. In 2019, the Congress gained solely 5 of those 108 seats, drawing a clean in seven states.The success of any Opposition alliance will relaxation on the efficiency of the Congress within the polls in about 300 Lok Sabha constituenciesThere are one other 205 seats throughout 10 states the place the Congress is both the dominant celebration or a key participant (see graphic). In 2019, the Congress gained 41 of those, with 31 seats coming from solely three states—Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Punjab. Its efficiency within the recently-concluded meeting polls in 5 states doesn’t present any vital change in its fortunes both. In Tamil Nadu, it was a junior celebration within the DMK-led coalition. In Assam, the place it gained three seats in 2019, it was a distant second to the BJP. More worryingly, it even did not successfully problem the ruling Left in Kerala, the place it gained 15 seats in 2019, its highest tally from a single state. The infighting in Punjab, the place it gained eight seats, doesn’t augur properly for the celebration both.It is, subsequently, not stunning that election strategist Prashant Kishor, who helped Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and M.Okay. Stalin in Tamil Nadu emerge victorious within the meeting polls earlier this yr, has recognized round 300 Lok Sabha seats the place the Congress should begin planning from now for a successful bid in 2024. He has already approached the Congress expressing his want to affix the celebration and has even submitted an elaborate plan to revive the celebration’s fortunes. Even whereas he had been liaising with Mamata, Pawar and different opposition leaders, Kishor made it clear that an opposition alliance couldn’t succeed with out the Congress.However, the grand previous celebration should set its home so as whether it is to ship outcomes. The rapid activity is to finish the paradox over its management. Ever since Rahul resigned, taking accountability for the 2019 Lok Sabha defeat, Sonia Gandhi has been appearing interim president. But that has not stopped Rahul from calling the pictures. The emergence of Priyanka Gandhi as a 3rd energy centre has solely added to the confusion. Seeking an finish to this association, 23 Congress leaders, now generally known as the G23, had written to Sonia Gandhi in August final yr, demanding an organisational overhaul, together with elections for the submit of president. Though an election was promised, it has been repeatedly postponed due to the pandemic. The celebration is prone to maintain this election by the top of this yr, although it stays unclear whether or not anybody from the Gandhi household will contest the ballot. Going by his energetic involvement in decision-making—notably within the appointment of state Congress chiefs and in main the celebration in Parliament—it’s virtually sure that Rahul’s official return to the helm is imminent.Meanwhile, a delicate problem has been thrown at his management by some members of the G23. While celebrating his 74th birthday on August 8, Congress Rajya Sabha member Kapil Sibal hosted a dinner for nearly all prime opposition leaders, excluding the Congress management. In attendance have been NCP chief Sharad Pawar, RJD chief Lalu Prasad, SP (Samajwadi Party) chief Akhilesh Yadav and the Trinamool’s Derek O’Brien. Some G23 members—together with Shashi Tharoor, Manish Tewari and Anand Sharma—have been additionally current, as have been representatives from Punjab’s SAD (Shiromani Akali Dal) and Odisha’s BJD (Biju Janata Dal).Sources say the revamp of the Congress was one of many main factors of debate. There was a consensus that the Congress needed to lead from the entrance, however that it wanted to strengthen its inner construction first. Some leaders overtly acknowledged that the rejuvenation of the Congress might occur provided that the celebration was “freed from the clutches of the Gandhis”.Top Congress leaders, nonetheless, appear unperturbed by these narratives. “I’m not going to comment on an individual’s choice of guest list for his birthday celebration,” says Randeep Singh Surjewala, the Congress basic secretary and in-charge of the celebration’s communication division. “The Gandhis depict the alternative narrative against an arrogant government which has launched a relentless assault on lives and livelihoods and compromised India’s national security and territorial integrity. Opposition parties agree that the centre point for our coalition is to save the country’s core fundamental values by getting rid of the Modi government. To achieve that, they must work with the Congress.”That some opposition leaders stay cautious of doing enterprise with the Gandhis was additionally indicated by the presence of former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav on the Sibal dinner. He has prevented being a part of any Congress-led assembly of opposition events, even excusing himself from the August 20 assembly convened by Sonia Gandhi. Other main leaders who’ve prevented such conferences embody BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) chief Mayawati and Delhi chief minister and AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) supremo Arvind Kejriwal.There has additionally been some disagreement amongst opposition events over their frequent narrative. For occasion, on the assembly on August 20, a number of leaders expressed reservations over making the Pegasus snooping scandal a serious speaking level, saying that such a technical concern is unlikely to seek out resonance amongst rural voters.However, these handicaps have did not dampen the spirit within the opposition camps. “In the Olympic hockey matches, we saw how the fortunes of teams changed in every quarter,” says the TMC’s Derek O’Brien. “It has been only three months since the BJP was annihilated in West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Let’s wait for the other quarters. The match is not over yet.” n