With 48 seats, Saurashtra area holds key to energy in Gujarat; shut contest on playing cards

By PTI

AHMEDABAD: Gujarat’s Saurashtra area, which accounts for 48 out of the overall 182 Assembly seats within the state with a large Patidar and Other Backward Class (OBC) inhabitants, has the potential to tilt the facility recreation in favour of or in opposition to the ruling BJP or opposition Congress within the subsequent month’s elections.

In the 2017 Assembly polls, the Congress had bagged 28 seats on this area, bettering its earlier election’s tally of 15 and serving to it prohibit the Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory depend to 99.

Political observers attributed the grand outdated get together’s spectacular present within the area to the 2015 Patidar group’s quota agitation that focused the BJP authorities.

But bettering the numbers or no less than holding them intact within the subsequent month’s Assembly polls can be a problem for the Congress as in contrast to the reservation stir, there isn’t any subject that may function an “emotional ground to unite” this time.

Besides, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) can even pose a hurdle in the way in which, the observers really feel.

The ruling BJP, which might win simply 19 seats within the area within the 2017 elections as in opposition to 30 in 2012, can also be making concerted efforts to regain its misplaced floor by poaching Congress MLAs. There are 11 districts on this area – Surendranagar, Morbi, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagadh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar and Botad.

In the 2017 Assembly, BJP had did not open an account in three of those districts – Morbi, Gir Somnath and Amreli.

For the Congress, which has been out of energy in Gujarat for greater than twenty years, it’s important that it sustains its 2017 efficiency in Saurashtra to be able to regain the misplaced floor within the state.

But this isn’t going to be straightforward for it given the truth that the 2015 Patidar quota agitation that united Patidars in opposition to the ruling BJP is lacking this time, the political observers mentioned.

Furthermore, Hardik Patel, essentially the most outstanding Patidar agitation chief who had joined the Congress in 2019 and was appointed its working president, snapped ties with the get together earlier this 12 months and joined the BJP which has even fielded him from Viramgam seat this time.

The AAP, which is for the primary time contesting on all 182 seats in Gujarat, can play spoilsport for the Congress because the youthful era of the Patidar group is seen supporting the Arvind Kejriwal-led outfit, specialists mentioned.

At the identical time, the BJP is seen compensating for any lack of help from the Patidar group with the OBC, one other main group within the area, which is principally unfold alongside the coastal belt and accounts for almost 40 per cent of seats, they mentioned.

“From what appears at the first glance of seat allocation, the BJP has increased the number of OBC candidates it has fielded this time in the region. If it suffers any loss from Patidars, it hopes to make it up with the support of OBCs,” mentioned political analyst Dilip Gohil.

He mentioned the Patidars from Saurashtra, particularly younger voters who work in Surat and are influenced by the AAP, are prone to avoid each the BJP and Congress. This manner, the Congress will likely be damage greater than the BJP, he mentioned.

“With uncertainty about how this community will behave in the next month’s elections, Congress will also have to bank on the support of a sizable population of Koli and other OBC community members spread along the state’s coastal belt,” sociologist Gaurang Jani mentioned.

“The Congress’s good performance in the Saurashtra region was due to the Patidar quota agitation that took place before the 2017 Assembly elections. Five years down the line, however, the community does not have an emotional ground to unite,” he mentioned.

Ever since its poor efficiency within the area in 2017, the ruling BJP has made concerted efforts to regain its misplaced floor by poaching Congress MLAs, a few of them being heavyweights who’re influential within the area and of their group.

As seen within the BJP’s ticket allocation within the area, the get together seems to be banking on Congress turncoat MLAs and contemporary faces to draw votes, the observers mentioned.

Of the 20 Congress MLAs, who defected to the BJP in the middle of 5 years after profitable the 2017 elections, half of them have been from Assembly constituencies within the Saurashtra area.

They embrace Soma Patel (Limbdi seat), Parsotam Sabariya (Dhrangadhra), Brijesh Merja (Morbi), Kunvarji Bavaliya (Jasdan), Vallabh Dharaviya (Jamnagar Rural), Jawahar Chavda (Manavadar), Harshad Ribadiya (Visavadar), Bhagvan Barad (Talala), J V Kakadiya (Dhari), and Pravin Maru (Gadhada).

As per the BJP’s first checklist of 160 candidates launched Thursday (November 10), a majority of those Congress turncoat MLAs who had gained the byelections after resigning from Congress have been fielded by the ruling get together.

At the identical time, the get together has given prominence to contemporary faces by refusing to repeat round a dozen of its sitting MLAs, together with former chief minister Vijay Rupani, senior chief R C Faldu, amongst others. The Congress historically loved a help base in these coastal seats with a powerful OBC base.

“There are 147 OBC communities in Gujarat. The coastal areas will likely be very important in deciding the destiny of the Congress. They (OBCs) have a large inhabitants, however they don’t seem to be united as a gaggle in contrast to Patidar, Brahmin and Rajputs.

“BJP remains on a weaker ground in these areas. The poaching of Talala MLA, an OBC leader from a coastal seat, shows BJP is trying to create a network of supporters in the region,” Jani mentioned. Elections in Gujarat will likely be held on December 1 and 5, and the counting of votes will likely be taken up on December 8.

AHMEDABAD: Gujarat’s Saurashtra area, which accounts for 48 out of the overall 182 Assembly seats within the state with a large Patidar and Other Backward Class (OBC) inhabitants, has the potential to tilt the facility recreation in favour of or in opposition to the ruling BJP or opposition Congress within the subsequent month’s elections.

In the 2017 Assembly polls, the Congress had bagged 28 seats on this area, bettering its earlier election’s tally of 15 and serving to it prohibit the Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory depend to 99.

Political observers attributed the grand outdated get together’s spectacular present within the area to the 2015 Patidar group’s quota agitation that focused the BJP authorities.

But bettering the numbers or no less than holding them intact within the subsequent month’s Assembly polls can be a problem for the Congress as in contrast to the reservation stir, there isn’t any subject that may function an “emotional ground to unite” this time.

Besides, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) can even pose a hurdle in the way in which, the observers really feel.

The ruling BJP, which might win simply 19 seats within the area within the 2017 elections as in opposition to 30 in 2012, can also be making concerted efforts to regain its misplaced floor by poaching Congress MLAs. There are 11 districts on this area – Surendranagar, Morbi, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagadh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar and Botad.

In the 2017 Assembly, BJP had did not open an account in three of those districts – Morbi, Gir Somnath and Amreli.

For the Congress, which has been out of energy in Gujarat for greater than twenty years, it’s important that it sustains its 2017 efficiency in Saurashtra to be able to regain the misplaced floor within the state.

But this isn’t going to be straightforward for it given the truth that the 2015 Patidar quota agitation that united Patidars in opposition to the ruling BJP is lacking this time, the political observers mentioned.

Furthermore, Hardik Patel, essentially the most outstanding Patidar agitation chief who had joined the Congress in 2019 and was appointed its working president, snapped ties with the get together earlier this 12 months and joined the BJP which has even fielded him from Viramgam seat this time.

The AAP, which is for the primary time contesting on all 182 seats in Gujarat, can play spoilsport for the Congress because the youthful era of the Patidar group is seen supporting the Arvind Kejriwal-led outfit, specialists mentioned.

At the identical time, the BJP is seen compensating for any lack of help from the Patidar group with the OBC, one other main group within the area, which is principally unfold alongside the coastal belt and accounts for almost 40 per cent of seats, they mentioned.

“From what appears at the first glance of seat allocation, the BJP has increased the number of OBC candidates it has fielded this time in the region. If it suffers any loss from Patidars, it hopes to make it up with the support of OBCs,” mentioned political analyst Dilip Gohil.

He mentioned the Patidars from Saurashtra, particularly younger voters who work in Surat and are influenced by the AAP, are prone to avoid each the BJP and Congress. This manner, the Congress will likely be damage greater than the BJP, he mentioned.

“With uncertainty about how this community will behave in the next month’s elections, Congress will also have to bank on the support of a sizable population of Koli and other OBC community members spread along the state’s coastal belt,” sociologist Gaurang Jani mentioned.

“The Congress’s good performance in the Saurashtra region was due to the Patidar quota agitation that took place before the 2017 Assembly elections. Five years down the line, however, the community does not have an emotional ground to unite,” he mentioned.

Ever since its poor efficiency within the area in 2017, the ruling BJP has made concerted efforts to regain its misplaced floor by poaching Congress MLAs, a few of them being heavyweights who’re influential within the area and of their group.

As seen within the BJP’s ticket allocation within the area, the get together seems to be banking on Congress turncoat MLAs and contemporary faces to draw votes, the observers mentioned.

Of the 20 Congress MLAs, who defected to the BJP in the middle of 5 years after profitable the 2017 elections, half of them have been from Assembly constituencies within the Saurashtra area.

They embrace Soma Patel (Limbdi seat), Parsotam Sabariya (Dhrangadhra), Brijesh Merja (Morbi), Kunvarji Bavaliya (Jasdan), Vallabh Dharaviya (Jamnagar Rural), Jawahar Chavda (Manavadar), Harshad Ribadiya (Visavadar), Bhagvan Barad (Talala), J V Kakadiya (Dhari), and Pravin Maru (Gadhada).

As per the BJP’s first checklist of 160 candidates launched Thursday (November 10), a majority of those Congress turncoat MLAs who had gained the byelections after resigning from Congress have been fielded by the ruling get together.

At the identical time, the get together has given prominence to contemporary faces by refusing to repeat round a dozen of its sitting MLAs, together with former chief minister Vijay Rupani, senior chief R C Faldu, amongst others. The Congress historically loved a help base in these coastal seats with a powerful OBC base.

“There are 147 OBC communities in Gujarat. The coastal areas will likely be very important in deciding the destiny of the Congress. They (OBCs) have a large inhabitants, however they don’t seem to be united as a gaggle in contrast to Patidar, Brahmin and Rajputs.

“BJP remains on a weaker ground in these areas. The poaching of Talala MLA, an OBC leader from a coastal seat, shows BJP is trying to create a network of supporters in the region,” Jani mentioned. Elections in Gujarat will likely be held on December 1 and 5, and the counting of votes will likely be taken up on December 8.