Jio’s IPO Could Trigger Tariff Hikes and Reshape the Telecom Landscape

The Indian telecom sector is anticipating a possible tariff war, potentially spurred by the upcoming IPO of Reliance Jio, planned for the first half of 2026. Both Jio and Airtel are expected to increase tariffs before the IPO to enhance profitability and attract investors. The focus has shifted away from low-cost plans, as both Jio and Airtel have eliminated their most affordable offerings. This change has a direct impact on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). Airtel’s ARPU has reached Rs 250, while Jio’s ARPU stands at Rs 208.8. Increasing tariffs could improve Jio’s Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), making the IPO more attractive to potential investors. Jio has over 500 million subscribers. Airtel has 362.8 million subscribers, while Vodafone Idea (Vi) has 197.7 million users. Should Jio raise its tariffs, Airtel is likely to follow, which will strengthen the financial performance of both companies, potentially putting further strain on Vi. Analysts have valued Jio at around $133 billion (about 11 lakh crore). The IPO could generate roughly $3 billion for Jio. Some experts believe that shareholders of Reliance Industries may not gain substantially because of a holding company discount. Mobile data and calling plans are expected to become more expensive in the upcoming months, resulting in higher recharge costs for mobile users. Jio and Airtel are expected to strengthen their positions, potentially leaving Vi with greater challenges. Jio’s IPO is likely to influence not only the stock market but also impact mobile users’ expenses. Both Ambani and Mittal have strategic plans in place, but the typical user may ultimately bear the brunt of the changes.