Volatility defined last week’s Indian stock market, closing weak amid sell-offs and global worries. Looking ahead, the market’s fate hinges on transformative events: the 2026 Union Budget, US Fed policy review, corporate earnings reports, and key global happenings.
Friday’s plunge sealed a negative weekly performance, with Sensex down 770 points (0.94%) at 81,537.70 and Nifty off 241 points (0.95%) at 25,048.65. FII outflows, profit realization, and uncertainty from geopolitical flashpoints weighed heavily.
For Nifty traders, 25,300 marks the near-term hurdle, with stronger barriers at 25,400 and 25,600. Downside cushions at 24,880 and 24,587; sub-24,350 could accelerate declines.
Union Budget 2026 takes center stage on February 1, as Finance Minister Sitharaman outlines fiscal roadmap. Scrutiny will fall on taxation policies, infrastructure investments, expenditure plans, and pro-growth reforms that signal economic priorities.
The Fed’s January 27-28 gathering commands global attention, likely holding rates steady but offering clues on trajectory that could redirect capital to or from India.
Ongoing Q3 earnings from leading firms will illuminate business resilience, influencing sector rotations. Buoyed by ministerial and presidential endorsements, India-US trade negotiations emerge as a potential positivity.
In commodities, gold’s breach above $4,967/oz towards $5,000 and silver’s $100/oz peak reflect haven buying spurred by risks and USD softening.
Investors must stay vigilant, as these catalysts converge to potentially redefine market momentum in the days ahead.