Ground report: Will Nandigram vote for Mamata or Suvendu Adhikari

About 150 kms away from the place I dwell rests the star constituency of Nandigram, which is predicted to see a battle of the Titans this election cycle. Suvendu Adhikari, Mamata Banerjee’s point-person in Nandigram, give up TMC and joined the BJP not too long ago. Not solely did Suvendu Adhikari be a part of BJP, however it was declared that he’ll struggle the 2021 election from Nandigram towards Mamata Banerjee.
A testomony to only how vital Nandigram is to each TMC and BJP is the drama that has unfolded over the previous couple of days. Mamata Banerjee, whereas holding a roadshow within the space injured herself. Her declare initially was that 4-5 individuals pushed her whereas she was greeting individuals from her automotive, and in consequence, she injured herself. Initially, the media reported that she suffered a hairline fracture. However, quickly sufficient, gaps appeared to look within the story.
For starters, there have been a number of eyewitnesses who stated that Mamata Banerjee acquired harm by chance and no one had pushed her. Then, Mamata Banerjee herself had issued an announcement from the hospital the place she admitted that the incident was merely an accident. Further, the police report additionally discovered that no one had pushed Mamata. Recently, nevertheless, quickly after Mamata Banerjee’s plaster magically become a mere crepe bandage inside hours, Mamata Banerjee once more claimed that her automotive door was pushed and shoved.
Mamata Banerjee made this declare, but once more, whereas OpIndia was nearly beginning its journey in Nandigram, attempting to determine the temper of the star constituency. Incidentally, we determined to begin from the very place the place Mamata Banerjee claims she was ‘attacked’.
This is the precise pillar the place Mamata Banerjee’s open automotive door collided, leading to her harm.

While Mamata Banerjee claimed that her automotive door was pushed and shoved, alluding to the truth that it may very well be part of a political conspiracy, the locals of the very space the place the incident occurred had this to say.

The particular person who OpIndia spoke to categorically denied that Mamata Banerjee was pushed by anybody. He narrated how her procession was approaching the pillars and her automotive door, which was open, then banged into the pillars leading to her harm.
The identical story was repeated by one other eyewitness.

This was a recurrent theme amongst these we spoke on and off-camera. Even those that help TMC and Mamata Banerjee asserted that it was an accident.
When one goes to Nandigram, one other stark actuality hits you. The space the place Mamata Banerjee acquired injured is a TMC village. This is to say that the majority people in that space are inclined in direction of voting for Mamata Banerjee herself. The actual fact that Mamata Banerjee herself felt the necessity to concoct this lie about being attacked in a village that helps her, proves past doubt that the Nandigram constituency is an all-important one which neither events can afford to lose. In reality, even whereas many of the occupants of that village help TMC, BJP has put up a number of posters and flags to mark their presence.
So what are the dynamics of Nandigram? Why is the constituency so vital that Mamata needed to probably create this drama in a village she clearly has a maintain on, to create a sympathy wave in her favour? Who is successful Nandigram?
According to 2011 census information for Purba Medinipur, which contained information for Nandigram-I, Nandigram-II and the census city of Nandigram, the Muslim inhabitants in these census items was 34%, 12.1% and 40.3% respectively.
In the 2016 Assembly Elections, Suvendu Adhikari received 67% of the full votes, CPI received about 27% and BJP received about 6%. Judging by the landslide victory of Sudendu Adhikari within the 2016 elections, the favored narrative is, after all, that it may very well be a walk-over for Suvendu in Nandigram. After all, it was he who set the bottom for the 2007 Nandigram motion that catapulted Mamata Banerjee to energy in 2011. It was him who was labored on the constituency, nurtured it, been with the individuals of Nandigram after they misplaced their family members within the Communist authorities’s firing and so on.
On the face of it, it will appear logical that Suvendu Adhikari would have sufficient mass enchantment to clock a win, this time, for BJP.
But Nandigram will not be as lower and dry and political pundits would have us consider.
BJP appears to consider that Nandigram goes to swing massively in its favour as a result of Suvendu Adhikari, Didi’s point-man in Nandigram is combating this election on a BJP ticket. Since it was he who set the bottom for the 2007 Nandigram motion, individuals would vote for him whatever the celebration he’s in.
TMC appears to consider that the truth that Suvendu Adhikari joined BJP will likely be seen as a betrayal by the individuals of Nandigram. That the BJP is seen as an ‘outsider’ will make sure that whereas individuals may nonetheless like Suvendu, they’d vote for TMC.
The reality, nevertheless, lies someplace in between and as of at present, whereas the struggle continues to be extremely neck-to-neck, Mamata Banerjee has a slight benefit over Suvendu Adhikari. To perceive why and what BJP can do about it, we have to analyse sure elements which are at play in Nandigram.
The Hindu-Muslim polarisation
Nandigram, whether or not one likes it or not, is now divided on communal traces slightly prominently. While OpIndia spoke to tons of of individuals from each communities, a transparent divide within the opinion emerged so far as the Muslim neighborhood was involved.
The Muslim neighborhood will not be voting for Suvendu Adhikari. While speaking to OpIndia, a number of Muslim residents of Nandigram stated that Suvendu Adhikari had ‘sold the motherland’ and joined BJP. The anger amongst Muslims primarily revolved round Adhikari becoming a member of BJP, which they view as a celebration that by no means has their finest curiosity at coronary heart, and the truth that he abandoned ‘Didi’ in an all-important battle.
A snippet of the dialog OpIndia had with native Muslims in Nandigram is right here. “For Nandigram, there is nobody other than TMC and Didi”, was the overwhelming sentiment.

While the BJP may wish to consider {that a} fraction of the Muslim vote may nonetheless go to Suvendu Adhikari due to his stellar work within the constituency over time, on the bottom, that looks as if a slim chance. The Muslims, who represent a big share of the Nandigram citizens will vote overwhelmingly in favour of TMC.
Absence of the Abbas Siddiqui issue
In the remainder of West Bengal, one issue that performs a vital function in BJP’s march to victory is the division of Muslim votes between TMC, the CPIM, Congress and Abbas Siddiqui alliance and in some restricted areas, AIMIM. However, in Nandigram, the Abbas Siddiqui issue by itself performs no function by any means. Therefore, the Muslim vote is unlikely to get divided.
If the Muslim vote then goes en masse to TMC with none substantial division, besides some that will go to CPIM, an enormous chunk of the vote that was going to Suvendu Adhikari earlier when he was with TMC, stays with TMC and doesn’t float to BJP in 2021.
This would translate to benefit Mamata.
The division in Hindu votes
While the Muslim vote in Nandigram has been polarised in direction of TMC, there isn’t any such polarisation of the Hindu vote in direction of BJP. Suvendu Adhikari, whereas exceptionally widespread in Nandigram, will likely be unable to consolidate all the 66% in his favour. In reality, the Hindu vote will see a slight cut up since there’s nonetheless a bit that may keep on with voting for TMC and Mamata Banerjee regardless of Adhikari engaged on the bottom since 2007.
One has to grasp that in Bengal, usually celebration loyalties are shaped over generations, with somebody’s father, grandfather working for a selected celebration all through their lives. For instance, the boy who testified earlier on this article about Mamata Banerjee getting harm by chance, was a CPIM voter. When requested why, he stated, “My grandfather, father, all have been CPIM voters”.

In 2016, CPI’s Abdul Kabir Sekh received 27% of the votes and that share was not restricted to the Muslim inhabitants. In Nandigram a minimum of, CPIM will not be a spent pressure and the standard citizens of the CPIM will nonetheless vote for his or her most well-liked celebration.
While Suvendu Adhikari is certain to chop into the CPIM vote financial institution, it stays to be seen if a considerable migration of the CPIM vote share goes to both TMC or BJP.
BJP: What it’s doing proper, what it’s doing fallacious and what it must do
Suvendu Adhikari is a stalwart in Nandigram and there’s no debate there. While it was certainly Mamata Banerjee who was catapulted to energy in 2011 on account of the Nandigram motion, it was Suvendu Adhikari who labored on the bottom. However, the dynamics are totally different this time round and that feeling is palpable on the bottom. It will not be so simple as voting in favour of all the things Suvendu dada did for the individuals of Nandigram.
The voices in favour of Suvendu ‘dada’ are there and are sturdy. BJP certainly did snatch the prospect of victory from the jaws of a particular defeat in Nandigram with the induction of Adhikari.

The voter right here particularly and categorically says that Mamata Banerjee involves Nandigram solely every year, however Suvendu dada is there with them all year long and tends to their wants. He believes that Suvendu Adhikari will win decisively. He was not the one voter who harboured this sentiment. Several voters, off the report, advised OpIndia that whereas they may not be vocal, they are going to vote for Suvendu Adhikari for the 12 months lengthy work he does for Nandigram. Others, silently hinted at voting for ‘Poriborton’ whereas not explicitly speaking about voting for BJP.
Therefore, it’s evident that BJP has the muse that they will use to construct their presence. Where it’s falling brief then? Other than the Muslim vote consolidation and the Hindu vote splitting three-way between TMC, BJP and CPIM, what’s it that BJP can do to get an edge that Mamata presently has?
Firstly, BJP wants to grasp, unequivocally, that in Nandigram it’s not a wave election. There isn’t any large wave in favour of both Suvendu Adhikari or Mamata Banerjee. As of now, the voter base is nearly cut up within the center with Mamata having the slight edge.
Once it’s established that there isn’t any wave in favour of Suvendu, one wants to grasp which intersection of voter can swing in direction of BJP, who is perhaps presently voting for TMC.
It is true that Suvendu has labored on the bottom and that growth is seen. Till Suvendu took over the reigns of Nandigram, the 130 villages within the constituency hardly had pakka roads. Trudging by means of the kaccha roads, the largely agrarian society had little to no growth. Now, there are pakka roads even within the furthermost components of the constituency. When OpIndia travelled by means of the constituency, there was nearly no space the place there was no street for a automotive to journey by means of. That, in Nandigram’s ebook, is growth. For a area that was marred with violence solely over a decade in the past, the constituency has come a good distance and the credit score of it primarily goes to Adhikari.
However, if one talks concerning the conventional voters of TMC in Nandigram, one has to additionally analyse what number of of them credit score this growth to Suvendu Adhikari and what number of credit score it to TMC. Several voters OpIndia spoke to believed that it was underneath Mamata Banerjee’s management that Suvendu Adhikari had labored for the individuals. For this part, Mamata continues to be the face of the Nandigram motion and of the event that has accrued to the realm. For one other part, Adhikari’s departure from TMC is a betrayal that they won’t forgive. For yet one more, this election can be a battle between their very own loyalties – that is the part that may be a conventional TMC voter but additionally has their loyalty in direction of Suvendu Adhikari.
It is that this part that BJP must cater to and maybe talk to them why they should repose their religion in Adhikari and never TMC as a celebration and even Mamata as a pacesetter, who by all accounts, seldom visits Nandigram.
If BJP needs to achieve the sting that Mamata has presently, the part that’s torn, the part that feels betrayed and that which credit Mamata for the event of Nandigram must be spoken to.
Perhaps the place BJP goes severely fallacious is also their reliance on massive political rallies. While the massive rallies consolidates the voter base that may vote for the celebration anyway, what it fails to do is persuade those that are sitting on the fence about voting for Suvendu.
The treatment to that’s Suvendu Adhikari himself doing small nukkad sabhas the place he addresses a small group of individuals at a time, speaking to them about his function within the upliftment of Nandigram. With his clout within the space and the years of labor he has put in, Suvendu will now have to persuade people who he labored for the individuals due to his join with the area, not as a result of he was requested to work for the realm by the celebration. He can even have to re-emphasise his function within the Nandigram motion and the way, Mamata Banerjee, after accruing political profit from the Nandigram motion, failed to go to the realm and work for the individuals as a lot as Suvendu Adhikari.
Beyond that, the celebration itself might want to attain the individuals of the realm even when Suvendu Adhikari will not be holding a rally or a nukkad sabha within the space.
For instance, whereas we walked round in Nandigram, speaking to only about anybody we may, in two separate locations TMC was holding a small rally with native employees. They had been chanting slogans, waving the TMC flag and speaking to locals. Mamata Banerjee was clearly not there however the celebration itself was lively even on a Monday afternoon. During our total keep there, nevertheless, we didn’t see even one such village rally by BJP.
The threat of miscalculation – Political events claiming villages
In West Bengal, a novel attribute in rural areas is that of political events ‘claiming villages’. Essentially, each village in an space is ‘claimed’ by a political celebration. So if a village is ‘claimed’ by TMC, if one goes into that village to report, one would find yourself believing that there’s a large TMC wave within the constituency since each member of that village would unequivocally say that they’d vote for TMC. However, if one would go to a close-by village which is, for instance, ‘claimed’ by BJP, one would consider that nothing may defeat BJP within the constituency.
To give the readers a little bit of perspective, Nandigram itself has about 130 such villages, every claimed by a political celebration.
For a journalist or a pollster, extra so for a pollster, it’s nearly not possible to take a survey of all these 130 villages and make an informed guess about which means the constituency would vote. Further, many in such villages chime in and confidently declare to vote for the celebration that has claimed their village as a result of the concern of backlash is slightly extreme. They usually face persecution, social stigma and violence in the event that they dare to go towards the village sentiment. Therefore, even when one does take a survey of all 130 villages, it’s not possible to foretell which celebration one would vote for after they lastly attain the poll.
In Bengal particularly, the silent voter base is slightly large and that phenomenon was additionally prevalent in Nandigram. Many merely refused to speak and tons of selected to speak off the digicam. Even whereas speaking off the digicam, most solely dropped hints about their political choice as a substitute of outright claiming to vote for one celebration or the opposite.
It is subsequently vital to keep in mind that any prediction about Nandigram is barely an informed guess and so far as educated guesses go, the constituency at present is cut up within the center between TMC and BJP with Mamata Banerjee having a hair’s edge over Suvendu Adhikari. While the impression of the silent voter can by no means be discounted in Nandigram, if BJP needs to win Nandigram, it must come out of its obsession with massive rallies and begin speaking to individuals – village by village.