Karnataka outcomes: How Muslim consolidation, division of Hindu votes helped Congress

On Saturday, the outcomes of the high-voltage assembly state elections in Karnataka had been launched. The Congress emerged as a result of the single-largest event with 135 seats—properly earlier the majority mark—to kind a authorities inside the state. The BJP acquired right here a distant second with 66 seats, whereas the JD(S) was third with 19 seats inside the 224-seat Legislative Assembly.

Congress registered an emphatic victory inside the Karnataka assembly polls, perhaps the first one in months the place the event does not rely on regional allies to kind a authorities inside the state. While the election advertising and marketing marketing campaign witnessed dangerous ranges of polarisation, with the opposition occasions raking up the issue of hijab along with the Congress event promising to ban the Hindu activist group, Bajrang Dal, it is worth analysing how polarisation helped Congress to consolidate Muslim voters and divide Hindu votes to emerge as victorious inside the assembly polls.

For event, Kameez Fatima from the Indian National Congress gained from the Gulbarga North constituency, a Muslim-dominated space, with over 52 per cent of all the voters being Muslims, as per voter analysis carried out by Chanakya. Fatima, an ardent advocate of the hijab, secured over 45 per cent of the final votes, triumphantly worthwhile the Gulbarga North seat.

In 2018 too, Fatima gained the Gulbarga North seat, polling about 43 per cent of votes as as compared with 45 per cent this 12 months. However, apparently, the BJP candidate had in 2018 polled 39.3 per cent of votes, whereas this 12 months, the amount elevated by 4 share components.

This demolishes the parable peddled by Congress supporters and Islamists that Fatima’s victory is the rejection of the hijab ban by the parents of Karnataka. In reality, the rise in Fatima’s vote share this 12 months may level out a danger of Muslim consolidation at work, nonetheless the corresponding enhance inside the BJP candidate’s vote share in her constituency reveals that for a giant a part of the inhabitants in Gulbarga North, hijab ban in schools and educational institutes won’t be a poll topic which had educated their voting selection.

Bhatkal, a constituency with a sizeable Muslim inhabitants (25 per cent), elected Congress’ Mankal Vaidya with 57 per cent of all the votes polled. The BJP’s Sunil Naik acquired right here in second with roughly 39 per cent vote share. 

In Bidar, one different district with a considerable Muslim inhabitants (30 per cent), INC’s Rahim Khan polled the utmost votes adopted by JDS’ Suryakanth Nagamarpalli and BJP’s Ishwar Singh Thakur.

While constituencies with very important Muslim populations largely elected Congress leaders to vitality, quite a lot of Hindu-majority constituencies did not vote for BJP candidates. For occasion, BC Nagesh, the Karnataka Education Minister misplaced the seat to Congress’ Okay Shadakshari from Tiptur, an assembly constituency with a staggering 91 per cent of Hindu majority.

In the 2018 assembly elections, Nagesh polled 40 per cent of all the votes polled then as as compared with 35 per cent on this 12 months’s election, reflecting that he has misplaced vote share to the Congress candidate, which suggests that each Nagesh’s supporters transformed or Congress supporters acquired right here out in monumental numbers to help their candidate.

The above examples and the analysis of the electoral outcomes hint that Muslims rallied behind the Congress event, most likely to secure their religious pursuits, and voted en masse for the candidates fielded by the grand earlier event. However, in distinction, the Hindus voted largely based totally on explicit particular person loyalties and native factors, with religion being the least of the problems, as witnessed by the scarcity of reverse mobilisation to counter Muslim consolidation and the division of its votes amongst Congress, JDS, and the BJP.

While the Muslim group known as behind Congress, it is pertinent to moreover remember that BJP confronted no crucial loss in vote share in 2023 as compared with 2018. In 2023, BJP managed to secure 36% of all the votes polled whereas Congress raked in a staggering 42.9%. JDS acquired 13.3%.

In 2018, BJP raked in 36.22% with 104 seats, Congress gained 38.61% with 78 seats and JDS gained 18.36% with 37 seats.

While BJP has managed to retain its vote share, it has misplaced 38 seats and JDS misplaced about 5% of the vote and 17 seats. Therefore, it is protected to conclude that the entire vote share dip of JDS shifted to Congress and BJP’s loss in seats (38 seats) along with JDS’ seats (17) has completely shifted to Congress.

When we focus on Muslim consolidation in favour of the Congress event, it is also pertinent to note that sooner than the Karnataka Assembly Elections, SDPI had clearly acknowledged their intention of campaigning for the Congress inside the Karnataka elections. Besides Muslim consolidation, it is now turning into apparent that Vokkaliga and Lingayat votes shifted en masse to Congress, thus dividing Hindu votes. While Congress projected a Vokkaliga face, DK Shivakumar as their CM candidate, BS Yediyurappa, a sturdy Lingayat face of the BJP launched his retirement from politics. It will also be being speculated that Congress could have secretly revived the promise of giving Lingayats separate religious standing, nonetheless, these are mere speculations.

It subsequently seems evident that whereas the Muslim group consolidated behind Congress, a part of Lingayat and Vokkaliga votes moreover consolidated behind Congress eventhough BJP managed to hold on to its typical vote base with perhaps some shift of their favour, making up for the loss in Vokkaliga and Lingayat votes.