Why the Bengal outcomes should not as unhealthy for the BJP because it appears

The outcomes of simply concluded meeting elections in West Bengal have shocked BJP supporters and elated opponents of the occasion. Both the despondency of BJP supporters and the irrational exuberance of its opponents is predicated on the tall claims made by BJP earlier than the elections to enthuse its cadre and affect swing voters. Such claims are routinely made by events within the run as much as the elections and these claims can’t be the benchmark primarily based on which ends up are to be evaluated.
The analysis of election outcomes needs to be information primarily based and will contemplate previous elections outcomes, long run developments and perhaps prevailing political local weather within the nation. The second wave of Covid couldn’t have impacted the state elections in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and Tamil Nadu however it might have had some influence in West Bengal because the influence of Covid second wave might be felt in Delhi, Maharashtra, Punjab, Chhatisgarh and UP within the final 4 phases of elections in Bengal.
There are two long run political developments that proceed to carry after the West Bengal elections. If BJP had defeated Trinamool Congress, it will have been a historic victory as a result of it will have defied two long run political developments. The two developments are:
BJP has by no means changed a non-Congress occasion in a state to turn out to be the ruling occasion i.e. in each state that BJP has ever come to energy, it has all the time completed so by changing Congress.In any state election since Sep 2013 (when Narendra Modi was made PM candidate of BJP) BJP has by no means been capable of match (overlook about exceeding) its efficiency of the Lok Sabha election in that state.BJP has solely as soon as changed a non-Congress occasion in a state to turn out to be the ruling occasion
Some would possibly argue that in Uttar Pradesh in 2017, BJP defeated Samajwadi Party and so the speculation doesn’t maintain. However, the occasion first got here to energy in UP in 1991 with a full majority (Uttarakhand then was part of UP) Till 1989, Congress was the principle ruling occasion in Uttar Pradesh. Janata Dal and its breakaway group (led by Mulayam Singh) might rule UP for two years however in 1991, it was BJP which had changed Congress and captured its conventional voters.
It remained a dominant power until 2002 earlier than it was pushed again to 3rd place by SP and BSP. In 2017, in a manner BJP regained its previous place. And then there’s Tripura the place the BJP defeated the CPI(M) to rule the state however Tripura is a small state in comparative phrases. Except UP and Tripura, there isn’t a different state the place there’s any doubt that BJP changed Congress. Even in Karnataka, BJP got here to energy first time by defeating Congress.
If BJP had defeated Trinamool Congress in 2021, this is able to have been the primary occasion in India’s political historical past the place BJP defeated a regional occasion and got here to energy in a comparatively giant state. This is like BJP’s place in Odisha, Telangana and even Bihar (the place it must be in alliance with JDU as a junior associate to come back to energy). As the outcomes present, the pattern nonetheless holds.
BJP’s lagging efficiency in state elections in comparison with Lok Sabha election
In any state election since Sep 2013 (when Narendra Modi was made PM candidate of BJP) BJP has by no means been capable of match (overlook about exceeding) its efficiency of the Lok Sabha election in that state. Even within the Prime Minister’s dwelling state of Gujarat, BJP has not been capable of match or come even near its efficiency in Lok Sabha election.
Even when Narendra Modi was Chief Minister of Gujarat, BJP’s efficiency in state elections was not so good as its efficiency throughout Lok Sabha elections! Even in states like Haryana, Delhi, Jharkhand the place the hole between the state and Lok Sabha elections was not very a lot, the autumn in BJP’s vote share within the meeting elections have been large.
The closest that BJP has ever come to match its Lok Sabha efficiency in a state election was in UP in 2017 and in (drumroll..) West Bengal 2021.
The BJP vote-share right here is NDA vote-share
The BJP vote-share right here is NDA vote-share
The BJP vote-share right here is NDA vote-share
And the irony is that this lead to West Bengal is taken into account by occasion’s sympathisers as a setback. In a manner, this damaging temper might be seen as constructive for the occasion because it reveals that the majority of its supporters have remarkably excessive expectations from occasion’s electoral efficiency.
However, one should not lose contact of floor realities and long run developments whereas making goal evaluation. Boastful claims made by occasion management (regular a part of electoral technique) can’t be made benchmark of evaluation.
Relative efficiency of BJP in comparison with final meeting election
Apart from the 2 long run developments, a 3rd side needs to be to match the occasion’s efficiency within the final meeting election within the state. In West Bengal, not solely has the BJP considerably improved its efficiency in comparison with final meeting elections (elevated its seats from 3 to 77 and vote share to 38.1% from 10.3%), in no different large state the occasion has been capable of improve its vote share to this extent because it has completed in West Bengal.
Not in Gujarat in 1995, when it’s going to begin its greater than 30 12 months rule (occasion anticipated to win once more in 2022), not in 1991 in UP when it shaped a authorities with full majority regardless of being at third place in 1989. This efficiency by BJP in West Bengal is unparalleled within the occasion’s historical past.
There is little question that had the occasion defeated Trinamool Congress, this is able to have been a historic verdict for it will have defied two long run developments. However allow us to not make the perfect enemy of higher.
Note: The article has been authored by Vikas Singh who was with MyGov as Director (Analytics) and has labored within the discipline of Analytics, Election Management, Investment Banking and Communication.