Bangladesh’s political landscape heats up ahead of February 12, 2026 elections after Hasina’s regime collapse. Internal party rifts emerge, but polls crown BNP leader with 70% support versus Jamaat’s 19%. Loyalty to late leader Khaleda Zia drives the shift from prior neck-and-neck polls.
Rahman’s return revitalizes BNP cadres. EASD’s survey highlights NCP’s meager 2.9%. Key BNP boosters: Zia sympathy, Rahman momentum, and anger over unchecked violence linked to Jamaat hardliners post-Hasina.
Intel sources decry Jamaat’s ISI ties, warning of Sharia dominance alienating citizens seeking development over dogma. Awami League defectors flock to BNP (60%), fewer to Jamaat (25%), deterred by bans and assaults on Hasina allies.
Female voters (71%) and regions like Rajshahi-Chittagong (70%) back BNP heavily. 77% foresee BNP rule. India anticipates smoother relations under BNP, recalling Modi’s tribute. Yet, peril looms: Hindu-targeted killings (six in 18 days, two recently) hint at ISI-Jamaat schemes to foment disorder and postpone voting.
Heightened border security needed to contain potential spillover from escalating pre-poll unrest.