The war in Ukraine is becoming protracted. Despite some optimism generated by the meeting between US envoy Witkoff and Putin, the future remains uncertain. The key question is what lies ahead: a ceasefire or a major conflict? Russia has unequivocally rejected a ceasefire, asserting its actions will be guided by national interests. Moreover, China’s backing underpins Russia’s inflexible stance.
With the deadline set by Trump looming, the United States is accelerating its diplomatic and military preparations. Sanctions are also being amplified. Russia is also readying itself for a full-scale war, and the threat of conflict is escalating from Europe to Asia.
The US Navy is conducting exercises close to Russia. These exercises are taking place in the Chukchi Sea near Alaska, an area representing the shortest distance between Russia and the US. The US Navy is carrying out drills in close proximity to Russia. The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) has announced that the drills will continue for the month, with the UK and Denmark joining in.
Trump is attempting to pressure Putin through diplomatic and military means, but he does not seek direct conflict with Russia. This is why Steve Witkoff went to Moscow, and Trump has also tasked a close associate to influence Putin.
Concurrently, Israel is pursuing closer ties with Russia. Netanyahu has engaged in two phone conversations with Putin in the past week. Their discussions lasted approximately 40 minutes. Netanyahu indicated he is endeavoring to de-escalate tensions in US-Russia relations, and ceasefire discussions have also occurred. However, global news outlets report that Putin’s posture indicates a ceasefire is improbable.
The Kremlin has announced the removal of any restrictions on deploying nuclear missiles. Russia is now free to deploy as many nuclear missiles as it chooses. This action follows Russia’s withdrawal from a 1987 agreement with the US, which placed limits on deploying missiles with ranges from 500 to 5,500 kilometers.
Furthermore, a war front against the US is being established. China, a key ally of Russia, is an active participant. Mirroring the US’s containment of Russia, Russia and China have encircled Japan. Joint military exercises are taking place in the East Sea near Japan.
If negotiations fail, if the Russian oil export fleet is attacked, or if Russian interests are compromised, a major war could erupt.