By Sanjay Panda: All eyes are on Turkey after it went to the polls on Sunday to elect a model new President and members of the Grand National Assembly (Parliament). With over 99 per cent of the votes counted so far, neither incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his principal opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu has managed to breach the 50 per cent threshold required for an outright victory. The stage seems set for an unprecedented second spherical run-off which is anticipated to be an in depth fight that will go each means.
But why is the world watching the Turkish presidential election so intently? The reply is not far to hunt.
Located on the crossroads of Asia and Europe, Turkey figures prominently inside the strategic calculus of a whole lot of worldwide areas. Apart from being a NATO and G-20 member, Ankara’s geostrategic significance due to its proximity to plenty of neighbouring hotspots makes it by default an important regional and world participant.
The India-Turkey ties & its future
From India’s perspective, the election assumes significance inside the context of fixing the course of bilateral engagement that has failed to appreciate its full potential, historic, cultural and civilisational hyperlinks nevertheless. Some optimistic momentum witnessed inside the remaining decade was rolled once more at Ankara’s behest after August 5, 2019, when the actual standing accorded to Jammu and Kashmir beneath Article 370 of the Indian Constitution was withdrawn. Turkey’s response and statements on a matter inside to India did not go down successfully with New Delhi, plunging the connection to an all-time low.
In a purely bilateral context, there aren’t any details in India-Turkey ties, whereas exterior parts have satirically taken the connection hostage. The Pakistan and Kashmir factors have continued to remain as principal irritants. Unfortunately, Turkey appears to be at India by the prism of Pakistan. Its biased stance on Kashmir relies on the Pakistani narrative, echoing Islamabad’s anti-India rhetoric. Today Ankara is in a Catch-22 state of affairs. It needs to economically interact with India and take the post-pandemic cooperation to the next stage, whereas persevering with its anti-India stance on Kashmir. India’s messaging has been clear – it might’t be “business as usual” till Ankara embarks on a crucial course correction.
Recent months have seen some optimistic developments with bilateral exchanges, along with a gathering on the administration stage. While an in a single day qualitative transformation inside the relationship couldn’t happen, post-election Turkey is extra more likely to carry forward this momentum. The presidential go to from Turkey inside the G-20 context may moreover help cope with getting the bilateral ties once more on observe.
From typical to confrontational technique
In the ultimate couple of a few years, notably given that failed coup attempt of 2016, Turkey has chosen to embark on a path that defies logic. Its aggressive posturing and confrontational technique, undermining alliances and even tough its western allies marked a departure from its typical, non-interventionist, conventional worldwide protection technique that was cautious and notably averted Middle Eastern entanglements. Strained relations with neighbours, siding with the Syrian opposition and shut Muslim Brotherhood hyperlinks has progressively alienated Turkey internationally. The change in technique beneath Erdogan has been a strategic miscalculation that has neither served its nationwide curiosity nor helped resurrecting its world image.
The West’s discomfiture with Turkey has further accentuated in current occasions with Ankara’s open defiance of its core security dedication to NATO. Unilateral navy intervention in Syria disregarding heavy criticism from its Western allies, procuring Russian-made S-400 air safety missile strategies, thereby terminating its participation inside the US’s F-35 superior fighter jet programme, dramatic declaration that it would open its gates to Europe for Syrian refugees, involvement in Libya and recurring confrontation with Cyprus and Greece whereas on the lookout for EU membership are clear indicators of Turkey’s intent that the West cannot presumably brush aside. Although broadly seen as a result of the harmful boy on the block, no one may deny the intrinsic value of this troublemaker!
Overhaul of power dynamics beneath Erdogan
Turkey’s worldwide protection orientation and its always evolving technique has an in depth dwelling be part of, reflecting the nation’s inside dynamics. During the ultimate 20 years, Turkey has undergone an enormous transformation beneath President Erdogan. Post-2016 failed coup attempt, the nation’s power dynamics have been overhauled. The change was further accentuated as Turkey’s parliamentary system was modified by an govt presidential system in 2018. Today power is centralised inside the Presidency and all totally different organs of the federal authorities have been made fairly redundant.
One of Erdogan’s priority areas has been to attraction to the conservatives by consolidating political Islam, and reviving Neo-Ottomanism by restoring the Caliphate glory with Turkey assuming administration place inside the Muslim world.
Socially, the nation proper this second is cut up between the Kemalist seculars and the Islamists, and the divide is shortly rising into completely totally different spheres. Externally, Turkey advocates a sturdy regional protection and there is a clear wish to play a greater place in world affairs. But with Erdogan on the helm of affairs, Islam is increasingly more turning right into a take into account worldwide protection decisions.
Economic catastrophe a crucial downside
Meanwhile, Turkey is coping with a big monetary downturn. Dwindling international trade reserves, flight of capital, uncontrollable inflation, surging unemployment, looming fears of meals insecurity and tourism drying up are ominous indicators. The current state of Turkish monetary system may be clearly attributed to political tensions, flawed worldwide relations and Erdogan’s unorthodox monetary insurance coverage insurance policies.
In 2014, Erdogan had forecast US$ 2 trillion GDP and US$ 25,000 per capita earnings by 2023. Three years sooner than 2023, even sooner than Covid struck, Turkey’s GDP had gone down from about US$ 900 billion to US$ 700 billion, and per capita earnings had decreased from spherical US$ 12,000 to US$ 8,500. A crucial course correction often known as for to arrest this free fall.
The monetary catastrophe is actually probably the most crucial political downside for Erdogan given that tried coup of 2016, and the Opposition’s main election plank.
During the ultimate 20 years, if the ruling AK Party has consolidated its power, the Opposition, which represented many strands, has helped the set off. It was solely decrease than two months ahead of the election that the six Opposition occasions agreed on a consensus presidential candidate. With a proactive Opposition abruptly transferring with a manner of urgency ahead of the election and opinion polls predicting an in depth contest, Erdogan may actually really feel the heat. The US, EU and Turkey’s NATO companions particularly see a flicker of hope in partaking with a further amenable pro-West Turkish President.
Mending relations with Western allies
Earlier, in 2021, sensing a widespread resentment of Turkey’s aggressive regional posturing, Ankara mounted a attraction offensive to repair its frayed ties all through the board. It intensified diplomatic efforts with a protracted report of countries, initially with Egypt, the UAE, and later with Armenia, Saudi Arabia, Greece, and even partaking in a protracted effort to reboot its strained relations with the United States. There is now a rising realisation that Turkey cannot proceed to ship mixed indicators to its Western allies and NATO. Similarly monetary expediency led to rapprochement with the Saudis, UAE and Egypt. There was moreover a restricted outreach to Israel and even to Greece to calm frayed tempers and assuage EU’s quick points.
These bridge-building efforts are broadly seen as a brief lived recalibration to deal with isolation and monetary catastrophe. A crucial reset of Turkey’s worldwide protection would indicate abandoning just a few of its core choices. It would indicate, for example, not siding with the Muslim Brotherhood and Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated actions, which runs counter to Erdogan’s political Islam protection.
Turkey has been attempting to hold out a fragile balancing act between Kyiv and Moscow given that Russian invasion of Ukraine. President Erdogan is aiming to indicate this catastrophe into an opportunity and readjust Turkey’s place in line with the geopolitical actuality. Since the beginning of the catastrophe, Ankara has sought to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv. Turkey has geared up navy gear to Ukraine and in line with NATO’s place has strongly condemned Russia’s navy operations inside the nation. However, the Turkish authorities has moreover expressed opposition to the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia and saved its airspace open to Russian planes. Having said that, the prolonged battle in Ukraine is making it progressively powerful for Turkey to stability its relations with Russia and the West.
Russia’s Ukraine invasion provided an opportunity to Turkey to boost its strained relations with the US. Turkey’s assist for Ukraine, most notably by means of the export of armed drones and diplomacy with Russia, has launched Ankara with a window of different to purchase the F-16s after the Biden administration instructed that such a sale may serve NATO and US security pursuits.
Cold-shouldering China
As for China, the rising post-pandemic distrust, though not overtly articulated, ensured that the bilateral engagement was scaled down. Turkey’s nationwide assertion on the seventy fifth UNGA Third Committee in 2021 seen for the first time a reasonably strongly worded criticism of China’s human rights violation in Xinjiang, referring to the treatment meted out to the Muslim minorities, along with Uyghur Turks. This was unprecedented nevertheless shows Islam increasingly more turning right into a take into account worldwide protection decisions.
While it may be powerful at this stage to predict the results of the second spherical run-off, Turkey’s western allies hope to see a President in Ankara who would not ship conflicting indicators to US, NATO and EU, recalibrates Turkey’s worldwide protection by slicing down its aggressive posturing inside the space, decide strategic companions and interact with them proactively. Domestically, to indicate Turkey’s democratic credentials, it may be important to revert to the parliamentary system, providing space to the Opposition. Finally, prudent monetary insurance coverage insurance policies will help resurrect recessionary tendencies and entice worldwide investments.
(The writer is India’s former ambassador to Turkey from 2020 to 2022)
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