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FROM WEST BENGAL to Kerala, there’s a lot at stake for the BJP in elections to the assemblies of 4 states and one UT introduced Friday — the end result is essential for the ruling social gathering on the Centre to chart the trail forward for its political and ideological agenda.Across the following two months, a victory in West Bengal could possibly be a significant uptick for the social gathering, which additionally must retain energy in Assam to maintain its grip on the Northeast. And, any positive factors within the southern states could be a bonus because it doesn’t have deep roots within the area.
At the identical time, a win for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC in West Bengal and the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu would witness an aggressive federal pushback that would decelerate the BJP’s push. It might additionally set a tone for the following basic election.
In Assam, which is taken into account key to its political and ideological push within the northeast, the social gathering had promised to grant citizenship to Hindus who had migrated from Bangladesh with the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and determine “illegal Muslim migrants” with National Register of Citizens (NRC). But it’s going through a dilemma as these points have polarised its voters with the indigenous inhabitants and the Bengali Hindus on two sides.
Besides, the approaching collectively of the Congress and the AIUDF has made the highway bumpier. And, an intensifying inside pressure might trigger some bother. While a transparent win would go away the state management subject to the highest brass on the nationwide stage, a cut up verdict would drive it to depend on a pacesetter like Himanta Biswa Sarma who can usher in coalition companions.
In West Bengal, the place former social gathering president Amit Shah is immediately managing the social gathering’s technique, the excellent efficiency within the final Lok Sabha elections — 18 of 42 seats — has saved the social gathering upbeat. But the spiritual demography makes its process more durable. With the Muslim inhabitants at virtually 30 per cent, the social gathering is relying closely on consolidation of Hindu votes.
“We are going to improve our Lok Sabha performance. If the elections are held free and fair, the BJP would come to power with two-thirds majority,” BJP basic secretary in-charge of West Bengal, Kailash Vijayvargiya, stated.
So far, the BJP has succeeded in claiming an edge within the notion conflict by getting quite a few standard TMC leaders, together with MLAs, to defect. But social gathering leaders admitted that the “battle is not yet won”. Like in Assam, the NRC and the CAA are difficult points. Party leaders are going through criticism for not implementing the CAA that would have given citizenship to quite a few Hindus in varied pockets.
“Among these states, Tamil Nadu is the toughest nut to crack. Unlike in Kerala, the party has more at stake as it is important for us to see that the NDA remains linked to power in the state, not just for our southern ambitions but also for maintaining a national character,” stated a BJP chief. Despite setbacks in preliminary strikes to win over smaller communities, the BJP’s focus is on eliminating its picture as a ‘North Indian party’.

In Kerala, the social gathering’s hopes of bringing collectively Nairs and Ezhavas within the Hindu group, and the Christians, appear to be fading with its state management failing to take constructive steps. The BJP could need to be glad with organising triangular fights with the CPI(M)-led LDF and Congress-led UDF in just a few constituencies.
But if the social gathering focuses on its “Congress-mukt Bharat” agenda, it might doubtlessly harm Congress prospects. “Like in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, Puducherry also, whatever we win is going to be an achievement. We do not have much stake in these states, so we have nothing to lose,” stated a senior social gathering chief.
The BJP has one MLA in Kerala, three nominated MLAs in Puducherry and no presence within the Tamil Nadu Assembly.