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Tag: economic slowdown

  • Economy slows to 4.4 per cent in Q3, govt’s full-year goal intact

    Express News Service

    NEW DELHI: India’s financial progress, as measured by the gross home product (GDP), slowed to 4.4 per cent within the October-December quarter of 2022-23 towards 6.3 per cent and 13.5  per cent within the second and first quarters, respectively. The deceleration was pushed by a mix of things together with the continued weak spot within the manufacturing sector, muted shopper demand and base impact as a result of the National Statistics Office (NSO) revised 2021-22 GDP progress to 9.1 per cent from 8.7  per cent estimated earlier. 

    The manufacturing sector’s output, going by the gross worth added within the third quarter of 2022-23, shrank 1.1 per cent in contrast with a progress of 1.3 per cent within the year-ago interval. In this fiscal’s second quarter, the sector contracted by 3.6 per cent. In addition, commerce, resorts, transport, communication and providers grew at a slower tempo of 9.7 per cent within the third quarter towards 15.6 per cent within the second.

    Although the most recent figures signalled the financial system is powering down, the NSO’s second advance estimates retained GDP progress for the present fiscal at 7 per cent, the identical price projected within the first advance estimates launched in January. 

    Terming the 7 per cent progress forecast ‘very realistic’, chief financial advisor V Anantha Nageswaran mentioned the financial system must broaden 5-5.1 per cent in This fall for this to occur. “The trends… indicate that achieving that growth rate in Q4 is well within the realm of possibility and, therefore, the 7 per cent real GDP growth estimate for 2022-23 is very realistic,” Nageswaran advised reporters. 

    ALSO READ | India shouldn’t be 8-9 laptop GDP progress at this level, says CEA

    However, financial shocks from unhealthy climate situations or some other surprising occasions may spoil the mathematics. A authorities assertion put the scale of the GDP at fixed (2011-12) costs in Q3 2022-23 at Rs 40.19 lakh crore, towards Rs 38.51 lakh crore within the year-ago interval — exhibiting a progress of 4.4 per cent. “GDP at current prices in Q3 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 69.38 lakh crore, as against Rs 62.39 lakh crore a year ago, showing a growth of 11.2 per cent,” the assertion learn. 

    The Reserve Bank of India had lowered the nation’s progress projection to six.8 per cent from 7 per cent amid the tightening of world monetary situations and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the IMF has projected a progress of 6.8 per cent for FY23. 

    According to specialists, the third quarter GDP progress decline was pushed by each home and exterior elements. “Global demand slowdown had already begun to hurt India’s export and industrial growth,” mentioned Dipti Deshpande, principal economist, CRISIL.

    ALSO READ | No means again for rising markets now, India could at finest muddle by

    FIGURES THAT MATTER

    Core sector efficiency

    7.8 per cent Core sector progress in January got here in at 7.8 per cent, up from 7 per cent recorded in December on the higher present by coal, fertiliser, metal and energy segments

    Fiscal deficit

    The Centre’s fiscal deficit touched 67.8 per cent of the full-year goal in January on account of larger bills and decrease income realisations

    GDP dynamics

    GDP progress for 2021-22 was revised upwards to 9.1 per cent from 8.7 per cent estimated earlier

    India must develop at 5-5.1 per cent in This fall to attain a 7 per cent actual GDP progress price for the total monetary yr

    NEW DELHI: India’s financial progress, as measured by the gross home product (GDP), slowed to 4.4 per cent within the October-December quarter of 2022-23 towards 6.3 per cent and 13.5  per cent within the second and first quarters, respectively. The deceleration was pushed by a mix of things together with the continued weak spot within the manufacturing sector, muted shopper demand and base impact as a result of the National Statistics Office (NSO) revised 2021-22 GDP progress to 9.1 per cent from 8.7  per cent estimated earlier. 

    The manufacturing sector’s output, going by the gross worth added within the third quarter of 2022-23, shrank 1.1 per cent in contrast with a progress of 1.3 per cent within the year-ago interval. In this fiscal’s second quarter, the sector contracted by 3.6 per cent. In addition, commerce, resorts, transport, communication and providers grew at a slower tempo of 9.7 per cent within the third quarter towards 15.6 per cent within the second.

    Although the most recent figures signalled the financial system is powering down, the NSO’s second advance estimates retained GDP progress for the present fiscal at 7 per cent, the identical price projected within the first advance estimates launched in January. googletag.cmd.push(operate() googletag.show(‘div-gpt-ad-8052921-2’); );

    Terming the 7 per cent progress forecast ‘very realistic’, chief financial advisor V Anantha Nageswaran mentioned the financial system must broaden 5-5.1 per cent in This fall for this to occur. “The trends… indicate that achieving that growth rate in Q4 is well within the realm of possibility and, therefore, the 7 per cent real GDP growth estimate for 2022-23 is very realistic,” Nageswaran advised reporters. 

    ALSO READ | India shouldn’t be 8-9 laptop GDP progress at this level, says CEA

    However, financial shocks from unhealthy climate situations or some other surprising occasions may spoil the mathematics. A authorities assertion put the scale of the GDP at fixed (2011-12) costs in Q3 2022-23 at Rs 40.19 lakh crore, towards Rs 38.51 lakh crore within the year-ago interval — exhibiting a progress of 4.4 per cent. “GDP at current prices in Q3 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 69.38 lakh crore, as against Rs 62.39 lakh crore a year ago, showing a growth of 11.2 per cent,” the assertion learn. 

    The Reserve Bank of India had lowered the nation’s progress projection to six.8 per cent from 7 per cent amid the tightening of world monetary situations and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the IMF has projected a progress of 6.8 per cent for FY23. 

    According to specialists, the third quarter GDP progress decline was pushed by each home and exterior elements. “Global demand slowdown had already begun to hurt India’s export and industrial growth,” mentioned Dipti Deshpande, principal economist, CRISIL.

    ALSO READ | No means again for rising markets now, India could at finest muddle by

    FIGURES THAT MATTER

    Core sector efficiency

    7.8 per cent Core sector progress in January got here in at 7.8 per cent, up from 7 per cent recorded in December on the higher present by coal, fertiliser, metal and energy segments

    Fiscal deficit

    The Centre’s fiscal deficit touched 67.8 per cent of the full-year goal in January on account of larger bills and decrease income realisations

    GDP dynamics

    GDP progress for 2021-22 was revised upwards to 9.1 per cent from 8.7 per cent estimated earlier

    India must develop at 5-5.1 per cent in This fall to attain a 7 per cent actual GDP progress price for the total monetary yr

  • India’s financial slowdown pronounced, BJP has no solutions: Rahul

    Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi on Monday lashed out on the BJP authorities over the state of the economic system, saying the per capita earnings of Indians is dropping however the authorities is affected by “policy bankruptcy” and has no solutions.

    He feared that the financial state of affairs will solely worsen within the coming instances.

    “Indian families are suffering from the onslaught of inflation and job loss and earning less per capita than they were two years ago,” Gandhi stated in a Facebook submit.

    He stated the per capita earnings at fixed costs has dropped from Rs 94,270 to Rs 91,481.

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    “India’s economic slowdown is pronounced, and the BJP Government, which suffers from policy bankruptcy, has no answers,” he additionally stated.

    “The economic situation will only get worse,” the Congress chief stated in his submit.
    The Congress has been attacking the federal government over rising costs of meals gadgets and petroleum merchandise.

  • Covid lockdowns, financial slowdown failed to scale back affect on local weather change: WMO

    LOCKDOWNS AND financial slowdown didn’t scale back warming traits or considerably have an effect on local weather change final 12 months, State of Global Climate 2020 provincial report has stated.
    Compiled by World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the report was launched on Monday forward of Leaders Summit on Climate, hosted by US President Joe Biden, on April 22 and 23. India can be amongst 40 collaborating international locations to deliberate on decreasing carbon emissions, financial advantages of local weather motion and employability, mobilising funds to drive net-zero transition, measures to restrict warming to 1.5 levels Celsius and alternatives to strengthen capability to guard livelihoods from the affect of local weather change.
    “The pandemic-related economic slowdown failed to put a brake on climate change,” the WMO assertion learn.
    The report acknowledged that together with the pandemic, folks internationally struggled to outlive as they confronted excessive climate within the type of storms, cyclones, heavy rainfall and report warmth.
    On limitations and challenges posed by Covid-19, the report stated, “Mobility restrictions and economic downturns owing to Covid-19 slowed down delivery of humanitarian assistance to vulnerable and displaced populations, who live in dense settlements. Response and recovery to people hit by cyclones, storms and similar extreme weather was constrained throughout the pandemic last year.”
    Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General, who collectively launched the report, stated, “This report shows that we have no time to waste. The climate is changing, and the impacts are already too costly for people and the planet. This is the year for action.”
    The local weather report additional acknowledged that the pandemic added additional dimension to human mobility issues, highlighting the necessity for an built-in method to understanding and addressing local weather danger and affect on weak populations.
    The report additionally acknowledged that there was a short lived discount in ranges of carbon dioxide and different emissions in 2020, however general information indicated a continued rise in CO2, methane, nitrous oxide. Likewise, resulting from La Nina — the irregular cooling noticed alongside equatorial Pacific Ocean — the worldwide imply sea degree rise confirmed a marginal lower final 12 months, however these have been inter-annual variabilities, the report acknowledged.
    India skilled one in all its wettest monsoons since 1994, with a seasonal surplus of 9 per cent that led to extreme floods and landslides, the report famous.
    Cyclone Amphan, which hit Kolkata in May final 12 months, has been named as the most expensive tropical cyclone for the North Indian Ocean area that caused an estimated lack of $14 billion. This occasion killed 129 throughout India and Bangladesh.
    The 12 months 2020 was among the many three warmest years ever recorded, with a median imply temperature (until October) touching 1.2 levels Celsius above the pre-industrial period. The warming was regardless of prevalence of cool La Nina circumstances over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  • Direct tax assortment beats FY21 revised estimates

    DIRECT TAX assortment for the present monetary yr has exceeded the revised estimates, offered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman within the Budget, signalling a restoration within the economic system.
    As per tax information accessed by The Indian Express, direct tax assortment, as of March 16, stood at Rs 9.18 lakh crore, about Rs 18,000 crore greater than the revised estimates.
    This surge in tax mop-up was led by an increase prematurely tax assortment from firms. Overall, company tax assortment jumped almost 7 per cent from a yr in the past to Rs 4.7 lakh crore as of March 16. This is greater than the revised estimate of Rs 4.46 lakh crore projected by the Finance Ministry.
    On the opposite hand, income-tax assortment of Rs 4.21 lakh crore remains to be in need of the revised estimates of Rs 4.59 lakh crore. The total direct tax assortment of Rs 9.18 lakh crore, whereas beating the revised estimates, is 4 per cent decrease than the year-ago determine. This, nevertheless, is a large enchancment from the 20-per cent decline seen at the start of the yr throughout the top of the Covid pandemic.
    With one other two weeks to go for the fiscal yr to shut, tax authorities count on assortment to rise considerably. In the Mumbai circle, they count on to garner no less than Rs 10,000 crore revenues until March 31. In the final monetary yr, total direct tax assortment went up by about Rs 72,000 crore.

    What offers confidence to the taxman is the revival in profitability of Corporate India. As per a Reserve Bank of India evaluation of earnings of listed non-financial non-government companies, gross sales in December quarter grew for the primary time in six quarters by 4 per cent. Similarly, their working revenue stood at a document 22.6 per cent, as towards 18.3 per cent a yr in the past. This has prompted analysts to improve earnings expectations of India Inc throughout sectors. For instance, Kotak Institutional Equities has mentioned the online revenue of Nifty50 firms might be 20 per cent in FY21, in comparison with 12 per cent earlier.

    All this can result in a buoyancy in direct tax collections. With Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues exceeding Rs 1 lakh crore for the final three months and expectations of it to hit a document Rs 1.3 lakh crore in March, the worst impression of the pandemic appears to be over.
    The Mumbai circle continued to be the most important contributor to direct tax collections. In FY21, it has collected Rs 3.03 lakh crore as of March 16, up 3.5 per cent over a yr in the past. The Bengaluru circle, which collected Rs 1.15 lakh crore of direct taxes, noticed highest progress of 10.4 per cent from a yr in the past. This could possibly be owing to the higher compliance in addition to the efficiency of the software program sector, which has weathered the pandemic properly, mentioned sources. The solely different circle that registered a optimistic year-on-year progress in tax collections was Jaipur.
    The Delhi circle, the second largest, noticed collections fall 15.2 per cent from a yr in the past to Rs 1.18 lakh crore. One doable purpose could possibly be because the National Capital Region is residence to a big proportion of smaller companies and casual sector institutions, mentioned sources.

  • Recovery continues however shedding tempo

    The contraction of 1.6 per cent within the manufacturing facility output for January comes manner beneath expectations, suggesting there are a number of pockets of frailty throughout the broader restoration. The slowdown was broad-based — each capital and shopper items fared poorly. The dangerous information is that labour-intensive sectors stay sluggish.
    While the providers sector is selecting up, the February composite PMI was up at 57.3 from 55.8 in January — the lack of momentum elsewhere is a priority at a time when there may be recent surge of infections particularly in key states like Maharashtra.
    A brand new spherical of lockdowns might gradual the revival. Retail two-wheeler gross sales proceed to be uninteresting; between April 2020 and February, they’ve gone up in only one month presumably as a result of automobiles have change into costly and unaffordable for some sections. While GST collections for January surpassed expectations, the era of e-way payments has stayed roughly flat since October 2020.

    Loan development, whereas ticking up, stays low at about 6 per cent; importantly company bond issuances have come off sharply in January and February to ranges of Rs 45,000 crore per thirty days in contrast with the common for the March-December 2020 interval. Pertinently, state-owned entities borrowing appear to be doing the majority of the borrowing.
    The efficiency of the core sector, as an illustration, continued to enhance in January however at a slower tempo: the rise was 0.1 per cent month-on-month seasonally adjusted versus 2.2 per cent within the earlier months.

    CMIE knowledge present that at 6.9 per cent, unemployment in February was decrease than the common of seven.3 per cent since July 2020; nonetheless, each the labour pressure participation charge and the employment charge stay considerably decrease than their ranges earlier than the lockdown and it might be some time earlier than these transfer as much as pre-pandemic ranges. fe

  • GDP to contract 8% in FY21: FICCI survey

    India’s gross home product (GDP) is predicted to contract by 8 per cent in 2020-21, in response to the most recent spherical of Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry’s (Ficci’s) Economic Outlook Survey.
    The annual median progress forecast by the trade physique is predicated on responses from main economists representing trade, banking and monetary providers sector. The survey was carried out in January. The median progress forecast for agriculture and allied actions has been pegged at 3.5 per cent for 2020-21. However, trade and providers sector, which had been severely hit because of the pandemic, are anticipated to contract by 10 per cent and 9.2 per cent, respectively, throughout 2020-21.

    “The quarterly median forecasts indicate GDP growth to contract by 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2020-21. The growth is expected to be in the positive terrain by the fourth quarter with a projection of 0.5 per cent growth,” estimates the survey.