Tag: FIEO

The Russia-Ukraine battle can adversely have an effect on fertiliser availability in India, whilst scenario until February-end was comfy, the Finance Ministry mentioned, in its Monthly Economic Report for February launched on Tuesday. Oil value motion within the coming months will dominate the inflation pattern, and the latest spikes in costs, if sustained, will submit downward dangers to development estimates, it mentioned.

The Ministry, nonetheless, projected that the worldwide commodity costs are anticipated to “level off” early with enhance in provides outdoors the disaster zone, particularly given the inherently unsustainable nature of the latest spike in costs. From a peak of round $139 per barrel recorded simply final week, worldwide Brent oil futures fell beneath $100 per barrel in early trades on Tuesday — reflecting that the inherent volatility in costs stays excessive.

As India’s dependence on imported fertilisers is kind of excessive and muriate of potash (MOP) is a nutrient that’s absolutely imported, excessive international costs could have a direct affect. “Fertilizer is a critical input to sowing and harvesting. As on 24th February 2022, the fertiliser availability is in a comfortable position. However, the ongoing geopolitical tensions can have an adverse impact on fertiliser availability as India is highly dependent on Russia and Belarus for fertiliser/raw material imports,” the ministry report mentioned.

Russia and Belarus are the world’s No. 2 and No. 3 producers of MOP fertiliser, at 13.8 mt and 12.2 mt in 2020, respectively. Out of the whole 5.09 mt that was imported in India in 2020-21, practically a 3rd got here from Belarus (0.92 mt) and Russia (0.71 mt). International costs of different fertilisers (urea, di-ammonium phosphate and complexes) and their uncooked supplies/intermediates, have additionally gone up sharply in latest weeks.

The report famous that rabi acreage has additionally not been impacted by tractor gross sales in 2021-22 (April-February) being 5.5 per cent decrease over the corresponding interval final yr signalling ample provide of tractors.

Volatility in international commodity costs are but to affect the expansion evaluation.

“Its impact on India’s activity level in March, if any, can be assessed only a month later, when high frequency data becomes available. However, with the activity levels in February not dampening, it is unlikely that actual GDP prints of 2021-22 will be different from the levels indicated in the second advance estimates. The geo-political crisis is still evolving and these are early days to make a plausible forecast of its impact on India’s economy in the year ahead,” the report mentioned.

“Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with increase in supplies outside the crisis zone. However, the impact on growth, inflation, current account and fiscal deficits will depend on the persistence of commodities prices at elevated levels,” it mentioned.

Consumer Price Index-based inflation or retail inflation for the month of February 2022 rose to six.07 per cent from 6 per cent in January 2022. However, for April-February interval as a complete, retail inflation averaged 5.4 per cent, throughout 2021-22 (AprilFebruary), round 80 foundation factors decrease than 6.2 per cent obtained within the corresponding interval of final yr, it mentioned.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based mostly inflation, after remaining benign at 0.7 per cent throughout the April-February interval of 2020-21, noticed a pointy uptick within the corresponding interval of 2021-22 to 12.7 per cent. “A part of the observed rise in wholesale inflation in 2021-22 (April-February) is attributed to the low base in the previous year. As the base effect fades, WPI inflation is expected to moderate, being limited to sequential growth of the index,” the report mentioned. It is crucial to observe the results of this imported inflation and its multi-round results on the home worth chain, it mentioned.

The depreciation within the worth of the rupee could also be good for the nation’s export sectors, however there’s a susceptible sub-category that’s adversely impacted: labour-intensive export sectors similar to gems and jewelry, prescription drugs and electronics which might be extremely depending on imports of inputs.

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Usually, a depreciation within the home forex is anticipated to toughen exports, as merchants get extra native forex once they convert the export proceeds, however importers, however, want extra native forex to purchase an identical quantity of imported inputs.

Sectors similar to gems & jewelry and electronics which have a excessive import depth — the worth addition of imported objects as a proportion of the worth of things which might be subsequently exported — are confronted with increased enter prices and decrease demand as they’re pressured to go on a few of the improve in price of imports. Since the start of the 12 months, the rupee has depreciated by 2.6 per cent to a close to all-time low of Rs 76.5 as in opposition to the US greenback.

“Overall electronics exports are dependent on imports as local value addition in the sector is minimal,” mentioned Vinod Sharma, MD at Noida-based Deki Electronics, which manufactures capacitors. Sandeep Narula, chairman of the Electronics and Computer Software Export Promotion Council, mentioned that manufacturer-exporters can be hit by the depreciation of the forex since 60 to 80 per cent of the exports from the sector are import-led. Trade points with Russia and Ukraine are additionally set to influence the sector as each nations are vital locations for electronics exports similar to cellphones. Narula added a big proportion of exporters within the sector don’t hedge their publicity to forex fluctuations.

“Even if the Indian exporters would have hedged the currency against depreciation, our experience is that 30 to 40 per cent of importers may not have opted for risk covering, resulting in higher import cost,” Narula mentioned. Electronics exports accounted for 4.9 per cent of India’s exports in FY21.

The gems and jewelry sector is going through a double whammy as gold costs have risen sharply whereas the rupee has depreciated. Gold demand has fallen sharply because the Russian invasion of Ukraine has despatched costs hovering to Rs 52,230 per 10 gm on the MCX on Monday. Gold is up 8.8 per cent for the reason that starting of the 12 months.

“(Jewellery) manufacturers are not getting orders because the price rise is huge,” mentioned Okay Srinivasan, chairman and managing director at Coimbatore based mostly Emerald Jewel Industry, which manufactures and exports gems. Srinivasan mentioned each home and worldwide shoppers understood that costs had shot up because of the Russia-Ukraine disaster and had been delaying purchases. Srinivasan famous that many producers had been hedging each their publicity to increased gold costs and the devaluation of the rupee, however mentioned smaller producers might not be within the place to do the identical.

Exports from the gems and jewelry sector had an estimated imports depth of 63 per cent in 2014, in line with a working paper by the Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (ISID). Therefore, imports accounted for nearly two-thirds of the exported worth of gems and jewelry in FY2014 in line with the ISID working paper. Gems and jewelry exports accounted for about 9 per cent of India’s exports in FY21.

Petroleum product exports are additionally extremely depending on imports. However, the relative inelasticity of the demand of petroleum merchandise permits exporters to go on the influence of upper enter costs, in line with consultants. The import depth of petroleum product exports was estimated at 91 per cent in FY14 by ISID.

India’s prescription drugs exports are additionally closely reliant on imports, notably from China. The ISID estimated import depth of 39 per cent in pharma exports in FY14. Pharma exports had been 6.6 per cent of exports within the earlier fiscal.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal on Monday mentioned he didn’t assume {that a} weak forex supported exports at an Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India occasion. “I believe a strong currency reflects the strength of a nation and will always be good for exports, because India, at the end of the day, is a net importer of goods,” he added.

Biswajit Dhar, professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, mentioned high-tech manufacturing together with digital items in addition to car and car element exports can be hit by the depreciation within the rupee as exporters must go on elevated price of imports which might have an effect on demand. “There is going to be a cascading effect on the manufacturing sector,” Dhar mentioned.

Experts mentioned any profit to exports from a weaker rupee in excessive value-addition sectors would additionally rely upon the motion of currencies of countries that India competes with in such sectors. The currencies of most creating nations, together with opponents similar to Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia have additionally weakened this 12 months however to a much less extent than the rupee. However, a basic slowdown within the restoration of world commerce because of the Russia-Ukraine battle is a key concern amongst exporters.

Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist at India Ratings, that analysis confirmed that there was a considerably stronger correlation between an increase in world commerce and Indian exports as in comparison with the correlation between rupee depreciation and a rise in exports.