Tag: russia ukraine tensions

  • Ukraine and the Mirage of Energy Independence

    It could also be time to pluck that outdated cardigan out of the closet.

    President Jimmy Carter wore one as he delivered a televised tackle in February 1977 when he informed Americans the nation had motive to be fearful about its ordinary reliance on overseas oil — and perhaps they need to flip down the warmth. In April, he warned that with its sources shrinking, the nation confronted “a problem that is unprecedented in our history. With the exception of preventing war, this is the great challenge our country will face during our lifetime.”

    Today, one other U.S. president faces rising gas costs, spurred by a problem largely out of his management: an invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a high oil and gasoline producer intent to make use of its power provides as a weapon when mandatory.

    Americans realized 45 years in the past that the United States had an energy-dependence downside, and the nation’s lengthy pursuit of “energy independence” did result in a growth in home manufacturing and a few conservation measures. It might have appeared that the nation solved its dependence points. It didn’t, and power and geopolitics are linked right this moment as a lot as ever. Americans are paying greater than $3.50 a gallon for gasoline, roughly $1 greater than a 12 months in the past, and Russian tanks solely simply started to roll.

    “The great challenge” stubbornly stays with us as an issue that’s managed however by no means fairly solved. As Russian troops fan out throughout Ukraine, the United States and its allies are reluctant to impose sanctions on Russian power in order to not harm their very own economies. Alternatively, Russia may flip off the faucets to stress the West. Either manner, everyone seems to be harm.

    That sort of problem is extra advanced than ever when the world must handle its power safety concurrently because it promotes a transition to cleaner power to regulate local weather change. Producing extra oil and gasoline past Russia solves one downside, solely to worsen one other.

    Much has modified since Carter’s time. The top-rated tv reveals like “Happy Days” and “Laverne & Shirley” saved American spirits up, and common viewership of reports offered by three mainstream networks formed far much less divisive views of the world. No one was live-tweeting battle, to not point out disinformation.

    But gasoline costs and power usually have been a giant concern then as they’re right this moment. The five-month 1973-74 Arab oil embargo that aimed to undercut Western help for Israel produced lengthy gasoline traces and fanned inflation. Over the subsequent three years, the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq-Iran War slashed international provides of oil and despatched power costs hovering. The Carter administration tried a slew of insurance policies to advertise conservation and raise manufacturing of assorted sources of power — some clear, some soiled — from solar energy to grease shale and liquid fuels made from coal.

    Some Carter insurance policies laid the groundwork to a safer power image many years later, and international politics have modified because the finish of the Cold War, even when Russia and China stay rivals. Most of the Persian Gulf oil producers are actually allies and even have rising enterprise relations with Israel. Nuclear negotiations are transferring ahead with Iran that might relieve sanctions and reopen spigots of Iranian oil exports.

    Still, tensions with Russia and doable future sanctions in opposition to the Kremlin threaten oil petroleum provides, pushing gasoline costs to their highest stage since 2014 whereas home pure gasoline costs have doubled over the previous 12 months.

    “There is no true energy independence,” mentioned David Goldwyn, who was the main State Department power diplomat within the first Obama administration. “With globally priced commodities like oil and gas and now critical minerals, there is no protection from price disruption even if you have adequate physical supply.”

    Global oil costs breached $100 a barrel this week, and analysts say they might climb an extra $20 or extra. Inflation, already at multiyear highs, may achieve steam with unpredictable political penalties. That is why the United States and its allies are reluctant to wield sanctions in opposition to Russia’s power sector, regardless that that’s the coronary heart of the nation’s economic system.

    “Our sanctions are not designed to cause any disruption to the current flow of energy from Russia to the world,” Daleep Singh, a deputy nationwide safety adviser, informed reporters Thursday.

    Since Russia produces 1 out of each 10 barrels of oil the world consumes and as much as one-third of Europe’s pure gasoline provides, the petroleum card provides it strategic leverage effectively past its nuclear arsenal. That is similar card that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as soon as performed.

    The actors are totally different, however the cudgel is actually the identical. On high of the outdated challenges are new power threats which are solely simply rising as world leaders attempt to wean their nations off fossil fuels. President Vladimir Putin of Russia has been eager, together with China, to amass strategic supplies discovered world wide mandatory for the adoption of renewable power and electrical autos.

    He bought on the telephone no less than two instances just lately with the president of Bolivia, urgent for a lithium mining contract whereas promising to ship COVID-19 vaccines.

    “Policymakers are right to be worried that the world may be swapping a dependency on oil and gas for a dependency on critical minerals, whose current production and processing are actually significantly more concentrated in fewer countries than either oil or gas,” mentioned Meghan L. O’Sullivan, a former deputy nationwide safety adviser within the George W. Bush administration and at present a professor at Harvard University.

    As just lately as 2008, the United States imported 60% of its oil and was operating so low on pure gasoline that billions of {dollars} of funding have been going towards constructing large import terminals. Energy shortage and dependence have been on the rise once more, with outdated oil fields in Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska depleting 12 months after 12 months.

    But new exploration methods, particularly hydraulic fracturing to interrupt by laborious shales, led to a frenzy of oil and gasoline manufacturing throughout the nation over the subsequent decade. Desperation within the oil patch turned to euphoria, as Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota shale fields produced report flows.

    Energy costs dropped, and right this moment the nation is a internet exporter of oil and gasoline, resulting in a common sense that the nation had kicked its power dependence. In 2014, the United States started exporting giant quantities of oil for the primary time in many years. Two years later, the nation began to export liquefied pure gasoline from terminals as soon as designed for import. That gasoline helped substitute some coal burning in Asia and relieved a few of Europe’s dependence on Russian gasoline, and a number of other new U.S. export terminals are being constructed, with extra deliberate alongside the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

    Nevertheless, with important buying and selling companions like Western Europe and Japan depending on imported oil and gasoline, the United States stands to lose exports of manufactured items if their economies gradual as power costs rise.

    In current years, some power specialists have argued that the United States had develop into the brand new swing oil producer, changing or no less than becoming a member of OPEC in its skill to handle power costs by elevating or reducing output to stability markets and hold costs from going too excessive or too low.

    That estimation turned out to be untimely. While the United States is now the world’s largest producer of oil and pure gasoline, power costs and provides nonetheless transfer up and down primarily based on occasions outdoors the management of Washington or the U.S. oil trade. Even earlier than the Ukraine disaster, political instability in international locations equivalent to Venezuela and Libya curtailed international oil provides.

    While OPEC has elevated manufacturing to accommodate a rising international thirst for power because the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, Saudi Arabia has dismissed pleadings by the Biden administration to ramp up output additional. Even as demand for fossil fuels continues to rise, investments by main Western oil corporations in oil and gasoline exploration and manufacturing have lagged behind lately owing to stress by traders to divest from fossil fuels and return income to shareholders.

    Beyond what sanctions on Russian oil and gasoline would do to costs, there may be additionally the worry of retaliatory cyberattacks. One such assault from a Russian prison group crippled the essential Colonial oil pipeline final 12 months, producing new gasoline traces and panic-buying throughout a lot of the Southeast.

    “A kind of amnesia about energy security developed,” mentioned Daniel Yergin, power historian and vice chair of IHS Markit, a analysis firm. “That amnesia is dissipating now.” But he was optimistic that growth of U.S. oil and gasoline manufacturing had put Washington in a far stronger place for confrontation with Russia. “Europe would have basically caved,” he mentioned, have been it not for the U.S. provide of liquid pure gasoline.

    All that gasoline is hardly a safety blanket for Europe, nevertheless. Local gasoline costs quadrupled this winter, partly as a result of Russia diminished shipments. It would have been worse if U.S. gasoline exports to Europe had not almost doubled between November and January, however those self same exports helped drive gasoline costs within the United States larger as home inventories dropped.

    More gasoline exports are a robust overseas coverage software, however fossil fuels are intrinsically linked to the rising downside of local weather change.

    “If you drill and pillage America first to have more fossil fuels domestically, you’re still burning them, and the carbon ends up in the atmosphere,” mentioned Daniel F. Becker, director of the Safe Climate Transport Campaign on the Center for Biological Diversity. “The more we drill, the more wildfires, the more droughts and severe hurricanes we exacerbate because global warming is a direct result of burning fossil fuels.”

    Electrification of transportation may assist, however electrical autos want batteries containing essential minerals like lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel and uncommon earths typically present in unstable international locations. China has a dominant place in refining a lot of these minerals and will simply be the prime power rival of the longer term.

    Jason Bordoff, head of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, mentioned the world wanted to press on with cleaner power to take care of local weather change, however that shift is not any assure of a extra peaceable world. “The old politics of oil and gas,” he mentioned, “are going to be with us and acute and layered on top of the politics of clean energy.”

  • World expresses outrage, plans stronger Russia sanctions

    World leaders expressed a uncooked outrage shrouded by an impotence to right away come to assistance from Ukraine to keep away from a significant battle in Europe, condemning Russia’s assault on its neighbor because the European Union and others promised unprecedented sanctions to hit the Kremlin.

    NATO has moved to beef up its jap flank dealing with Russia and deliberate a digital leaders’ summit for Friday after President Vladimir Putin warned anybody listening that any interference would “lead to consequences you have never seen in history.”

    EU and NATO member Lithuania declared a state of emergency because the Baltic nation borders Russia’s Kaliningrad area to the southwest and Russia’s ally Belarus to the east. NATO nations have 100 jets and 120 ships on excessive alert as deterrence. “Make no mistake: we will defend every ally against any attack on every inch of NATO territory,” mentioned NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen referred to as it a “barbaric attack” on an impartial nation that additionally focused “the stability in Europe and the whole of the international peace order.” The EU will maintain an emergency summit in Brussels.

    But nobody promised to maneuver in militarily and defend Ukraine because it might spark off a significant European battle.

    So as an alternative, many of the world — however not China — condemned and threatened to hit the Russian elites with, within the phrases of Von der Leyen — “massive and targeted sanctions.” She will put to EU leaders late Thursday a proposal that “will target strategic sectors of the Russian economy by blocking the access to technologies and markets that are key for Russia.”

    Workers load the particles of a rocket onto a truck the aftermath of Russian shelling in Kyiv. (AP)

    She mentioned the sanctions, if permitted, “will weaken Russia’s economic base and its capacity to modernize. And in addition, we will freeze Russian assets in the European Union and stop the access of Russian banks to European financial markets.”

    Like the primary package deal of sanctions that had been imposed when Russia acknowledged the 2 breakaway jap Ukrainian republics, von der Leyen mentioned all Western powers had been strolling in lockstep.

    “We are closely aligned with our partners and allies the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, but also, for example, Japan and Australia,” she mentioned.

    Highlighting a widening rift in superpower relations, China stood alone in failing to sentence the assault and as an alternative accused the United States and its allies of worsening the disaster.

    And it put its friendship in observe Thursday by approving imports of wheat from Russia, a transfer that would assist to scale back the influence of doable elevated Western sanctions. Russia is among the greatest wheat producers however could be weak if overseas markets block shipments.

    In a transparent protection of Moscow, China “called on parties to respect others’ legitimate security concerns,”

    Foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying mentioned that “all parties should work for peace instead of escalating the tension or hyping up the possibility of war,” in language China has constantly used to criticize the West within the disaster.

    “Those parties who were busy condemning others; what have they done ? Have they persuaded others?” Hua mentioned.

    A view of the particles of a privet home and a burned automobile within the aftermath of Russian shelling, outdoors Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday. (AP)

    One factor was clear — weeks of diplomatic cajoling, world crisscrossing of leaders and overseas ministers, and the specter of sanctions towards Putin’s interior circle had failed to steer the Kremlin to take probably the most important measures in Europe because the finish of the Cold War.

    Overall, extra sanctions seem the one choice for the foreseeable future. And from South Korea to Australia to Europe, governments had been lining as much as oppose Putin.

    French President Emmanuel Macron, who had labored till the final minute for a diplomatic answer, mentioned “France firmly condemns Russia’s decision to wage war,” and promised help for Ukraine.

    The turmoil from the start of a long-feared act of aggression rippled from Europe to Asia. Stock markets plunged, oil costs surged, and European aviation officers warned of a excessive threat to civilian plane over Ukraine, reminding air operators that “this is now an active conflict zone.”

    Russia’s assault and uncertainty concerning the depth of the Western response despatched shares tumbling and oil costs surging by greater than $5 per barrel. Market benchmarks in Europe and Asia fell by as a lot as 4%, whereas Brent crude oil briefly jumped above $100 per barrel in London for the primary time since 2014 on unease about doable disruption of provides from Russia, the No. 3 producer.

    In New York, the U.N. Security Council held a unprecedented emergency assembly meant to dissuade Russia from sending troops into Ukraine. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ plea to “give peace a chance” got here simply as Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared on Russian TV to announce the navy operation.

    Explosions had been heard in Kyiv and different cities in Ukraine. Moscow had massed greater than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders. On Monday, Putin acknowledged the independence of two separatist areas in jap Ukraine and ordered Russian forces there for what he referred to as “peacekeeping.”

    To keep away from worldwide civilian casualties, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency mentioned “there is a risk of both intentional targeting and misidentification of civil aircraft” and that “the presence and possible use of a wide range of ground and airborne warfare systems poses a HIGH risk for civil flights operating at all altitudes.”

    The assault touched all sectors of society throughout the globe. The director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention overtly apprehensive that world consideration will now shift even farther from serving to the world’s least vaccinated continent reply to COVID-19.

    “The conflict in Ukraine definitely will draw attention, political attention, towards that crisis,” John Nkengasong mentioned.

    And a supply informed The Associated Press that the UEFA European soccer federation will not stage this season’s May 28 Champions League last in St. Petersburg.

  • Market Live Updates: Sensex rises over 300 factors in early commerce, Nifty climbs above 17,150-mark

    The frontline fairness indices on BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) fell for the fifth successive session, declining over 0.6 per cent on Tuesday monitoring the weak spot within the Asian markets. Investors dumped equities throughout the board on issues {that a} recent escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions may flare up oil costs and push inflation increased.

    The S&P BSE Sensex fell 382.91 factors (0.66 per cent) to settle at 57,300.68 whereas the Nifty 50 slipped 114.45 factors (0.67 per cent) to finish at 17,092.20.

  • Market Highlights: Sensex declines 383 factors, Nifty ends under 17,100-mark amid Ukraine-Russia tensions; Realty, IT, FMCGs drag

    Share/Stock Market Highlights: The frontline fairness indices on BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) fell for the fifth successive session, declining over 0.6 per cent on Tuesday monitoring the weak spot within the Asian markets. Investors dumped equities throughout the board on issues {that a} recent escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions might flare up oil costs and push inflation increased.

    The S&P BSE Sensex fell 382.91 factors (0.66 per cent) to settle at 57,300.68 whereas the Nifty 50 slipped 114.45 factors (0.67 per cent) to finish at 17,092.20. Both the indices had opened with steep losses earlier within the day slipping over 2 per cent within the early commerce with the BSE benchmark hiiting a low of 56,394.85 and the broader Nifty touching 16,843.80. They traded within the destructive territory all through the session nevertheless the hole was narrowed in direction of the final hour of commerce.

    On the Sensex pack, Tata Steel and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) have been the highest losers of the day falling over 3.5 per cent every. They have been adopted by State Bank of India (SBI), Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, IndusInd Bank and ITC. On the opposite hand, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Kotak Mahindra Bank, Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC), Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Infosys ended within the inexperienced.

    (with inputs from companies)

  • Blinken says Russia may invade Ukraine throughout Olympics

    Russia may invade Ukraine in the course of the present Beijing Winter Olympics so Americans ought to go away the Eastern European nation instantly, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned Friday.
    Blinken didn’t element the explanations behind the State Department’s newest safety alert that calls on all American residents to go away Ukraine.

    “Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border,” Blinken mentioned in Melbourne, Australia.

    “We’re in a window when an invasion could begin at any time and, to be clear, that includes during the Olympics,” Blinken added. The Olympic Games are scheduled to finish on Feb 20.
    Russia has amassed over 100,000 troops close to Ukraine. It says it has no plans to invade however desires the West to maintain Ukraine and different former Soviet international locations out of NATO.
    The risk of struggle in Ukraine and a strengthened alliance between Russia and China had been excessive on the agenda of a gathering in Canberra on Friday amongst Blinken and his counterparts from India, Japan and Australia.

    The 4 nations kind the Quad, a bloc of Indo-Pacific democracies created to counter China’s rising regional affect.
    Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne, who chaired the assembly, mentioned the alliance between Moscow and Beijing was regarding as a result of it doesn’t symbolize a world order that squares with ambitions for freedom and openness and sovereignty and the safety of territorial integrity.
    Blinken earlier mentioned a battle with China within the Indo-Pacific was not inevitable.
    “We share concerns that in recent years China has been acting more aggressively at home and more aggressively in the region and indeed potentially beyond,” Blinken mentioned.
    “The Quad partners are united by an affirmative vision for what the future can bring and a commitment to defend the rules-based system that we have spent tremendous time and effort building,” he added.

    Blinken’s journey is designed to strengthen America’s pursuits in Asia and its intent to push again in opposition to rising Chinese assertiveness within the area.
    He will even go to Fiji and focus on urgent issues about North Korea together with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts in Hawaii.
    Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian dismissed Quad issues about Beijing’s increasing affect amongst Pacific island nations.
    China’s help for Pacific island international locations is open, clear and inclusive, with out focusing on any third social gathering, Zhao mentioned, in an obvious reference to the US and its allies.

    “We hope all countries will take concrete actions to help Pacific island countries deal with their challenges and do more to contribute to regional peace, stability and development,” he mentioned at a each day briefing.
    Australia has suffered commerce retaliation in recent times for angering Beijing over actions that embody outlawing covert overseas interference in home politics, banning Chinese tech big Huawei from main infrastructure initiatives and urging an impartial investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.