Boosted by GST rate cuts igniting consumer spending, India’s Q3 FY26 GDP is forecasted to grow at 8.3 percent, reveals Union Bank of India’s latest report. This marks a sharp rise from 6.4 percent in the year-earlier quarter, tempered somewhat by base effects.
GVA growth is seen at 8 percent, improving on last year’s 6.5 percent yet below Q2’s 8.1 percent. ‘Q3 GDP numbers on February 27 should reflect 8.3 percent expansion,’ notes the analysis.
Nominal GDP is expected to dip to 8.5 percent, from 8.7 percent previously and 10.3 percent last year, due to softening inflation impacting the deflator. Estimates use the old base year amid uncertainty over MoSPI’s revisions.
The FY26 outlook stays robust, with encouraging FY27 indicators, but awaits new base year clarity for adjustments. MoSPI’s Friday release introduces 2022-23 base year, leveraging new data sources to fortify estimates in private corporate and MSME segments.
These developments highlight policy effectiveness in driving demand-led growth. With inflation cooling and tax simplifications in play, India’s economy demonstrates resilience, setting the stage for accelerated progress in the coming quarters.