A powerhouse report from SBI Research paints a bullish picture for India’s trade with the US. Even as the US inks a deal with Bangladesh, India’s surplus with America is poised to eclipse $90 billion annually post the bilateral agreement.
Annual benefits could reach $45 billion, matching 1.1% of GDP, with $3 billion shaved off forex outlays. This strategic triad – with Europe and UK deals – empowers Indian exporters while protecting key sectors.
Leading the insights, Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh estimates top Indian exports to the US climbing to $97 billion in year one, ballooning past $100 billion inclusive of others. Inbound US goods (non-services) likely top $50 billion.
From $40.9 billion in FY25 to $26 billion in FY26’s first nine months, the surplus is accelerating toward nine-figure territory yearly.
Textiles take center stage in US-Bangladesh talks. Equal $7.5 billion imports from both nations feature distinct profiles: Bangladesh excels in knitwear, India in woven fabrics.
The pact trims Bangladesh tariffs to 19% and waives duties on select items tied to US cotton and fibers. Indian stakeholders worry about competition, but SBI analysis reveals cost disadvantages for Bangladesh.
India’s raw material pricing edge holds firm; a maximal US incursion would cost India under $1 billion.
Compounding the gains, Europe’s $260 billion duty-free apparel arena now beckons Indian manufacturers, signaling expansive opportunities and economic resilience.