Bihar’s elections stand out due to the overwhelming significance of caste dynamics in every constituency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has projected a strong victory for the NDA, anticipating record low seat numbers for the RJD and Congress. He directly challenged Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi, labeling them ‘princes on bail’ and accusing them of spreading misinformation and disrespecting the religious observances of women during Chhath Puja.
Rabri Devi, the former Chief Minister and wife of RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad, actively campaigned for her son Tejashwi Yadav in Raghopur. The RJD has faced internal strife, with Tej Pratap Yadav reportedly facing a hostile reception from supporters. The election campaign has been marred by violence, including an attack on a candidate linked to Jitanram Manjhi and the fatal shooting of a Jan Suraaj Party worker in Mokama.
Tejashwi Yadav is navigating the complex task of campaigning for his allies. In Darbhanga’s Gaura Bauram constituency, he faced difficulties persuading voters to support Santosh Sahni, brother of VIP chief Mukesh Sahni, over local RJD leader Afzal Khan. Tejashwi explained the necessity of alliance compulsions, promising Afzal Khan respect after the polls, while urging RJD voters to support Sahni.
This situation places Tejashwi in a difficult position: he must avoid alienating Muslim voters by criticizing Afzal Khan, yet also secure the support of the Mallah community by not appearing dismissive. His chosen strategy is a middle path.
The RJD has expelled numerous rebel candidates, and the Congress is facing similar internal issues with expelled candidates running independently. These internal contests have led to PM Modi’s description of the alliance as ‘oil and water,’ highlighting potential friction.
While Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav have appeared at joint rallies, their campaign messages are notably distinct. Tejashwi’s rhetoric steers clear of criticizing corporate leaders like Adani and Ambani, avoids direct personal attacks on PM Modi, and does not echo Rahul’s ‘vote chori’ narrative. He also remained silent on Rahul’s remarks concerning Chhath Puja.
Tejashwi’s campaign strategy focuses on labeling Amit Shah as an ‘outsider’ and invoking Bihari pride. His rallies consistently draw large, energetic crowds, demonstrating his pivotal role in leading the Mahagathbandhan campaign. The recent killing in Mokama, which Tejashwi contrasted with the PM’s focus on older ‘jungle raj’ issues, underscores the continued presence of fear and violence in Bihar’s elections, though less prevalent than in past decades.
The influence of ‘bahubalis’ (strongmen) in Bihar politics persists, even as their direct electoral participation has decreased, with many fielding family members. Caste remains the primary factor in constituency-level politics, with religion being a significant divider in the Seemanchal region. Questions surrounding Nitish Kumar’s health and the legacy of Tejashwi Yadav, impacted by allegations of corruption and ‘jungle raj,’ are key electoral issues. The emergence of Prashant Kishor and AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi adds further unpredictability. Current assessments indicate the Nitish-Modi alliance holds an advantage.