Following the first phase of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list in Bihar, the Election Commission has received 7.24 crore forms. This figure is 65 lakh (8%) less than the total number of registered voters on June 24, which was prior to the SIR commencement in Bihar. It’s also 48 lakh (6.2%) less than the registered voters during the Lok Sabha elections last year and 12 lakh (1.6%) less than in the 2020 Assembly elections.
The decline in voter numbers in Bihar is notable, especially since this is the first instance of such a trend between two consecutive elections since 2005. The Election Commission is set to publish the final voter list on September 30. This decrease has been consistent across both Assembly elections and combined Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
Historically, the trend in Bihar has been towards an increase in registered voters for Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. An examination of voter data from 1977 (after the exclusion of the constituencies which became part of Jharkhand in 2000) and after the 2004 Lok Sabha elections (after the formation of Jharkhand) reveals that, typically, the registered voters have increased between successive elections, except for the two Assembly elections in 2005. In 2005, there was a decline from 5.27 crore to 5.13 crore (2.5%). This history indicates that a decline in the number of registered voters in Bihar is not unprecedented. However, it would be unusual if the final voter list in 2020 (7.36 crore) or the 2024 Lok Sabha elections (7.73 crore) shows fewer registered voters.
The reality is that the voter count decreased from 7.89 crore on June 24 to 7.24 crore on July 27, which is an 8% decrease. This decline is proportionally greater than the 2.5% decrease observed between the elections in February and October 2005.
Interestingly, the decline in registered voters in Bihar, a state with a high fertility rate, is somewhat unexpected, even from the perspective of 2005 (two years after the last SIR in 2003 and after a Lok Sabha election). The adult population in Bihar increased by 28.5% between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, and there was also an increase in migration from the state during that period.
There is still an opportunity for improvement in the observed decline. According to the Election Commission’s press note on July 27, the inclusion of actual voters through claims and objections is open from August 1 to September 1. Young voters who turn 18 by or on October 1 can also be added to the voter list during this time.
A possible cause for the decline in 2005 was a campaign by the Election Commission to issue Electors Photo Identity Cards (EPIC) between the two Assembly elections that year. The Election Commission noted that permanent online EPIC centers were being set up in election offices, and additional teams were created to cover more voters in rural areas. The goal was to maximize EPIC coverage, thereby reducing the need for alternative identification documents at polling stations. Between the launch of the campaign and the announcement of the election schedule on September 3, EPIC coverage rose from 57% to 67%.