The Pakistan army is facing a critical juncture, with recent events exposing its vulnerabilities and signaling a potential escalation in attacks from numerous militant factions. Despite a tentative peace with the Taliban, the success of groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against the army has emboldened others to confront the state. Observers suggest a common objective among several outfits, including the TTP, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP): to overthrow the current government and establish an Islamic order. The LeJ, historically active in sectarian violence targeting religious minorities, is now considered a potential threat to expand its operational scope. Concerns are mounting that the LeJ might rekindle its past alliances with either the ISKP or the TTP. The ISKP’s strategic priorities might be re-evaluated in light of the recent Pakistan-Afghan Taliban peace agreement, potentially pushing it closer to the LeJ rather than the TTP, which is widely believed to be supported by the Afghan Taliban. A direct merger between the ISKP and TTP is improbable due to the ISKP’s formation by former TTP dissidents. Regardless of their cooperative efforts, these groups are well aware of the Pakistan army’s compromised capabilities and are poised to increase their attacks individually. Intelligence reports indicate a substantial rise in militant activities is anticipated. Pakistan’s capacity to seek assistance from groups like Lashkar-e-Tayiba (LeT) or Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in combating these threats is also in question. The JeM’s inconsistent stance towards the establishment and its solidarity with the Afghan Taliban and TTP could create internal divisions if tasked with fighting the TTP. The LeT, despite its general adherence to the establishment, has faced internal dissent previously, particularly concerning Pakistan’s cooperation with the US, which led some members to consider joining the Taliban. Adding to the complex security environment, Baloch nationalist movements, driven by ethnic nationalism and secular separatism, are intensifying their campaign. Recognizing the army’s multi-front pressures, these groups are preparing for a more significant offensive in Balochistan, targeting Chinese interests and military infrastructure.
