Intelligence warned of Afghan army collapse, regardless of Biden’s assurances

Classified assessments by American spy businesses over the summer time painted an more and more grim image of the prospect of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and warned of the speedy collapse of the Afghan army, at the same time as President Joe Biden and his advisers mentioned publicly that was unlikely to occur as rapidly, in response to present and former U.S. authorities officers.
By July, many intelligence experiences grew extra pessimistic, questioning whether or not any Afghan safety forces would muster severe resistance and whether or not the federal government might maintain on in Kabul, the capital. Biden mentioned on July 8 that the Afghan authorities was unlikely to fall and that there could be no chaotic evacuations of Americans much like the tip of the Vietnam War.
The drumbeat of warnings over the summer time elevate questions on why Biden administration officers, and army planners in Afghanistan, appeared ill-prepared to cope with the Taliban’s ultimate push into Kabul, together with a failure to make sure safety on the most important airport and the push to ship 1000’s extra troops again to the nation to guard the United States’ ultimate exit.
One report in July — as dozens of Afghan districts have been falling and Taliban fighters have been laying siege to a number of main cities — laid out the rising dangers to Kabul, noting that the Afghan authorities was unprepared for a Taliban assault, in response to an individual acquainted with the intelligence.

Intelligence businesses predicted that ought to the Taliban seize cities, a cascading collapse might occur quickly and the Afghan safety forces have been at excessive danger of falling aside. It is unclear whether or not different experiences throughout this era introduced a extra optimistic image concerning the capability of the Afghan army and the federal government in Kabul to resist the insurgents.
A historic evaluation offered to Congress concluded that the Taliban had discovered classes from their takeover of the nation within the Nineteen Nineties. This time, the report mentioned, the militant group would first safe border crossings, commandeer provincial capitals and seize swaths of the nation’s north earlier than transferring in on Kabul, a prediction that proved correct.
But key American selections have been made lengthy earlier than July, when the consensus amongst intelligence businesses was that the Afghan authorities might dangle on for so long as two years, which might have left ample time for an orderly exit. On April 27, when the State Department ordered the departure of nonessential personnel from the embassy in Kabul, the general intelligence evaluation was nonetheless {that a} Taliban takeover was at the very least 18 months away, in response to administration officers.
One senior administration official, who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate the categorized intelligence experiences, mentioned that even by July, because the scenario grew extra risky, intelligence businesses by no means provided a transparent prediction of an imminent Taliban takeover. The official mentioned their assessments have been additionally not given a “high confidence” judgment, the businesses’ highest degree of certainty.
As late as per week earlier than Kabul’s fall, the general intelligence evaluation was {that a} Taliban takeover was not but inevitable, the official mentioned. Officials additionally mentioned that across the time of Biden’s July remarks, the place he known as on Afghan leaders “to come together,” he and aides have been privately urgent them to make concessions that the intelligence experiences had indicated have been essential to stave off a authorities collapse.
Spokespeople for the CIA and the director of nationwide intelligence declined to debate the assessments given to the White House. But intelligence officers acknowledged that their businesses’ evaluation had been sober and that the assessments had modified in latest weeks and months.
During his speech on Monday, Biden mentioned that his administration “planned for every contingency” in Afghanistan however that the scenario “did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated.”
Facing clear proof of the collapse of Afghan forces, U.S. officers have begun to solid blame internally, together with statements from the White House which have recommended an intelligence failure. Such finger-pointing typically happens after main nationwide safety breakdowns, however it would take weeks or months for a extra full image to emerge of the decision-making within the Biden administration that led to the chaos in Kabul in latest days.
Intelligence businesses have lengthy predicted an final Taliban victory, even earlier than President Donald Trump and Biden determined to withdraw forces. Those estimates offered a variety of timelines. While they raised questions concerning the will of the Afghan safety forces to combat with out Americans by their aspect, they didn’t predict a collapse inside weeks.
But in latest months, assessments turned ever extra pessimistic because the Taliban made bigger features, in response to present and former officers. The experiences this summer time questioned in stark phrases the need of Afghan safety forces to combat and the flexibility of the Kabul authorities to carry energy. With every report of mass desertions, a former official mentioned, the Afghan authorities seemed much less steady.
Another CIA report in July famous that the safety forces and central authorities had misplaced management of the roads main into Kabul and assessed that the viability of the central authorities was in severe jeopardy. Other experiences by the State Department’s intelligence and analysis division famous the failure of Afghan forces to combat the Taliban and recommended that the deteriorating safety circumstances might result in the collapse of the federal government, in response to authorities officers.
“The business of intelligence is not to say you know on Aug. 15 the Afghan government’s going to fall,” mentioned Timothy S. Bergreen, a former workers director for the House Intelligence Committee. “But what everybody knew is that without the stiffening of the international forces and specifically our forces, the Afghans were incapable of defending or governing themselves.”
Afghanistan obtained little consideration within the annual menace evaluation launched in April by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; however the temporary dialogue was dire, noting the Taliban have been assured they may obtain a army victory.
“The Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield, and the Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support,” the report mentioned.
But present and former officers mentioned that whereas it was true that the CIA predicted a collapse of the Afghan authorities, it was typically arduous to get company analysts to obviously predict how rapidly that may happen, particularly as Trump after which Biden made selections on how briskly to attract down troops.
Two former senior Trump administration officers who reviewed a number of the CIA’s assessments of Afghanistan mentioned the intelligence businesses did ship warnings concerning the power of the Afghan authorities and safety forces. But the company resisted giving a precise timeframe and the assessments might typically be interpreted in quite a lot of methods, together with concluding that Afghanistan might fall rapidly or presumably over time.
Sharp disagreements have additionally persevered within the intelligence group. The CIA for years has been pessimistic concerning the coaching of the Afghan safety forces. But the Defense Intelligence Agency and different intelligence outlets inside the Pentagon delivered extra optimistic assessments concerning the Afghans’ preparedness, in response to present and former officers.
Military and intelligence assessments predicting that the federal government in Kabul might maintain on at the very least a 12 months earlier than a Taliban takeover have been constructed on a premise that proved to be flawed: that the Afghan military would put up a combat.
“Most of the U.S. assessments inside and outside the U.S. government had focused on how well the Afghan security forces would fare in a fight with the Taliban. In reality, they never really fought” through the Taliban blitz throughout the nation, mentioned Seth G. Jones, an Afghanistan knowledgeable on the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Two many years in the past, this dynamic performed out in reverse. When U.S.-backed Afghan militias started capturing territory from the Taliban in late 2001, Taliban fighters folded comparatively rapidly, and each Kabul and Kandahar fell earlier than the tip of that 12 months.

Some Taliban surrendered, some switched sides, and much bigger numbers merely melted into the inhabitants to start planning what would develop into a 20-year insurgency.
Intelligence officers have lengthy noticed that Afghans make chilly calculations about who’s prone to prevail in a battle and again the profitable aspect, a tactic that enables for battlefield features to build up rapidly till a tipping level turns the combat right into a rout, in response to present and former analysts.
At the core of the American loss in Afghanistan was the lack to construct a safety pressure that might stand by itself, however that error was compounded by Washington’s failure to hearken to these elevating questions concerning the Afghan army.
Part of the issue, in response to former officers, is that the can-do angle of the army ceaselessly acquired in the way in which of candid, correct assessments of how the Afghan safety forces have been doing. Though nobody was blind to desertions or battlefield losses, American commanders given the duty of coaching the Afghan army have been reluctant to confess their efforts have been failing.
Even these within the army skeptical of the abilities of the Afghan safety forces believed they might proceed to combat for a time after the Americans left.
For months, intelligence officers have been making comparisons between the Afghan nationwide safety forces and the South Vietnamese military on the finish of the Vietnam War. It took two years for South Vietnam’s army, recognized by the American acronym ARVN, to break down after the United States withdrew troops and monetary help. Optimists believed the Afghan army — with American funding — might final practically as lengthy. Pessimists thought it might be far shorter.
“For the last two or three years I have been ruefully remarking that ANSF is Afghan for ARVN,” mentioned Bergreen, who labored on intelligence issues on Capitol Hill from 2003 to 2021. “There was an acknowledgment that the Afghan forces were not up to the long-term fight. But I don’t think anyone expected them to melt away quite that fast.”

Recent Taliban diplomatic maneuvers with different nations within the area, most notably China, lent an air of inevitability to a Taliban takeover that additional demoralized Afghan authorities troops, Jones mentioned.
In the tip, analysts mentioned, the Taliban gained with the technique that has so typically proved profitable throughout Afghanistan’s many many years of conflict — they outlasted their opponent.
“I am not that surprised it was as fast and sweeping as it was,” mentioned Lisa Maddox, a former CIA analyst. “The Taliban certainly has shown their ability to persevere, hunker down and come back even after they have been beaten back. And you have a population that is so tired and weary of conflict that they are going to flip and support the winning side so they can survive.”