The return of Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, to Bangladesh after a 17-year self-imposed exile is set to redefine the nation’s political trajectory. Scheduled to arrive in Dhaka on Thursday, his homecoming comes at a critical juncture, mere weeks before the general elections, and carries significant implications for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and India.
India is keenly observing the evolving situation in Bangladesh. The political landscape is particularly sensitive due to the Awami League’s disqualification from contesting the elections and Khaleda Zia’s hospitalization. In this context, the interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, is reportedly facing challenges in curbing the influence of radical Islamist groups, such as Jamaat-e-Islami, which is often linked to Pakistan’s ISI. These groups have seen a resurgence in their political standing after being previously banned.
While opinion polls point towards a strong performance by the BNP, Jamaat remains a significant competitor. The recent success of Jamaat’s student wing in Dhaka University elections has further heightened concerns in New Delhi. India views the BNP, despite historical complexities, as a potentially more liberal and democratic force than the current interim government. A BNP victory could lead to greater political stability and a potential shift in foreign policy, moving away from China and Pakistan and strengthening ties with India, which have weakened under the current interim administration.
Tarique Rahman’s past criticisms of the Yunus government’s foreign policy decisions, and his reported refusal to ally with Jamaat, are viewed positively by India. He has also previously espoused a “Bangladesh First” foreign policy, emphasizing national interests. India’s recent gestures of support towards Khaleda Zia have been appreciated by the BNP.
Rahman, who has effectively led the BNP from London since 2008, is expected to land in Dhaka around midday. The BNP is mobilizing its supporters for a massive welcome, including a large procession from the airport and a rally. He is also expected to contest a parliamentary seat.
Security has been significantly heightened at Dhaka airport, with special arrangements in place for supporters. This return is being described by party officials as a defining moment. Rahman’s background includes facing multiple convictions, which the BNP asserts were politically motivated, and seeking medical treatment abroad.
Rahman’s return is anticipated to energize the BNP, but he faces the substantial task of uniting the party and engaging younger voters in a country marked by political volatility. India’s strategic interests ensure that it will closely monitor all subsequent developments.