The resurgence of TTP and return of the Achilles’ Heel for Pakistan

The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or Pakistan Taliban is among the most harmful terror outfits in Pakistan’s document books. The group is infamous for being behind quite a few high-profile terror assaults and assassinations throughout the nation. Some of them embody the 2011 assault on considered one of Pakistan’s largest air bases, the assault on Karachi International Airport in 2014 and the heinous bloodbath on the Army Public School in Peshawar that killed 150 folks, largely college students.

Founded in 2007 by Baitullah Mehsud, a outstanding militant determine from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa area and the Mehsud tribe, the phobia organisation took form quickly after the assassination of former Pakistan President Benazir Bhutto. Mehsud was intently linked to each the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda.Soon after coming to prominence, Mehsud succumbed to a drone strike in 2009. His successor, Hakimullah Mehsud, too met the identical destiny in 2013. This quickly gave rise to factions among the many cadres as a non-Mehsud, non-tribal member was chosen because the chief of TTP in Mullah Fazlullah. This was a possibility the Pakistani safety forces couldn’t miss, and therefore, the Pakistan navy launched a large operation in June 2014 with help from United States drones to wipe out the TTP from Pakistan. This operation was known as “Zarb-e-Azb”. This resulted within the weakening of the group and the fleeing of high and center stage leaders to Afghanistan.READ: New management, resurgence and conquest: Decoding Taliban meals chain after Mullah Omar’s demiseThe revival As per a report by the United States Institute of Peace, TTP is principally an umbrella wing of amalgamated terror teams that emerged to prominence to combat in opposition to US and NATO forces after 2001. These teams primarily comprised of Afghans and Pakistanis near the border and from FATA areas.If we have been to plot two graphs, one which tracks the resurgence of the Afghan Taliban and the opposite that tracks the resurgence of TTP, we might see that each graphs would look comparable. At the identical time, on digging deeper into the construction and functioning of those teams, we may also realise that this resurgence was solely a matter of time and isn’t a by-product of different modifications within the area.Mullah Fazlullah, like his predecessors, was additionally killed in a drone strike. After 4 years underneath a non-Mehsud, the group was reinvigorated by Noor Wali Mehsud’s ascension to the highest. Known for his “intellectuality”, Noor Wali got here up with a method to bind the completely different factions that cut up in 2014. He additionally moved the TTP’s base from Eastern Afghanistan to the Southeast extra particularly the Paktika province which was method nearer to the borders of Pakistan’s Waziristan area. Taking on the safety institution of Pakistan in Pakistan was a daring intent that rejuvenated the group.Noor Wali additionally introduced the group the closest ever to the Taliban. The latter formally introduced a merger of the Amjad Farooqi group and a Lashkar-e-Jhangvi faction into TTP.ALSO READ: Pakistan aided Taliban, performed key position in Afghanistan takeover, says US lawmakerOwing to the custom saved alive by Baitullah Mehsud and different Mehsud leaders after him, the TTP at all times loved shut relations with the Al Qaeda to the extent that a number of stories on the group’s monetary means level to incoming funds routed by way of Al Qaeda. The TTP additionally used its native presence and affect by extorting funds from authorities contractors and locals engaged on building initiatives throughout Waziristan and adjoining districts. Reports point out that the TTP calls for 5 per cent of the whole building value of initiatives as safety expenses from killings and kidnappings. The group additionally thrives in imposing kidnapping of influential and wealthy folks in return for ransom.Noor Wali can also be shrewd with regards to the group’s public picture. Regular communication from the group tries to hold the message that TTP doesn’t goal widespread residents and is barely in opposition to the Pakistani institution and initiatives regarding them.Effects of a change of guard in Afghanistan The Taliban’s comeback is a shot within the arm for a number of terror teams. Al Qaeda sees nice positivity on this. In Pakistan, TTP is the one group that has been so emphatically emboldened by the event. Noor Wali has very shut hyperlinks with the Afghan Taliban, leaders of the Haqqani Network and remnants of Al Qaeda within the area. The Haqqani group is yet one more supply of useful monetary help. The Taliban has already launched 1000’s of prisoners from Afghan prisons that housed key TTP leaders and hardcore militant leaders banned by Pakistan.Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, often known as Pakistani Taliban) has launched a brand new assertion on behalf of its emir Noor Wali by which he congratulates Afghan Taliban and renews his pledge to Afghan Taliban emir Haibatullah Akhundzada.FYI, TTP HQ can also be in Afghanistan. pic.twitter.com/BOXJJVFpi6— FJ (@Natsecjeff) August 17, 2021
Pakistan is already fearing the worst and have heightened their safety features. The nation additionally fears that the TTP will attempt to infiltrate the flood of refugees ready on the border. Most notably, TTP ex-deputy Maulvi Fakir Mohammad was launched from Bagram jail by the Taliban. In 2013, he was arrested together with 4 accomplices by Afghan intelligence officers whereas attempting to enter Pakistan’s Tirah area. He was transferred to Bagram jail in 2018.ALSO READ: Pakistan sees an alarming resurgence of terror teams throughout countryNoticed many Pakistanis shocked that Taliban launched TTP members and now they are going to be rejoining TTP actions. They’re saying we at all times thought TTP was a NDS proxy. Lol that is what occurs while you consider your personal narrative that’s initially meant for foreigners— FJ (@Natsecjeff) August 20, 2021
Hundreds of TTP militants, together with key commanders, have been free of varied prisons throughout Afghanistan, particularly from Bagram and Pul-e-Charkhi. Baitullah Mehsud’s trusted commander Zali, together with a number of key commanders from Bajaur and Waziristan, are amongst these launched. Other key members embody commander Waqas Mehsud, Hamza Mehsud, Zarqawi Mehsud, Zaitullah Mehsud, commander Qari Hameedullah Mehsud, Hameed Mehsud and commander Mazhar Mehsud. All of them are in essentially the most needed checklist of Pakistani safety companies. According to sources, the Taliban has launched near 2,300 members belonging to the TTP, a United Nations-designated terrorist organisation.TTP commander Faqir Mohammed, who simply escaped from Afghanistan jail after Taleban takeover the system. In his first public look, he’s threatening Pakistan & pledging to convey Khulafat system there. An enormous query mark on pak’s safety authority’s response.@SMQureshiPTI pic.twitter.com/nONtyuhYSN— Hamza Dawar (@HamzaDawar0) August 20, 2021
Ever for the reason that Taliban launched its offensive throughout Afghan provinces en route Kabul, the TTP additionally launched large assaults on the Pakistani Army at North Waziristan and different areas leading to lack of lives of many Pakistani troopers.Noor Wali has lately known as for an impartial state comprising Pakistan’s tribal areas. Two weeks in the past, he additionally introduced that extra splinter teams have joined the TTP, together with the dreaded Ustad Aslam’s group. This is the ninth jihadist group to hitch TTP since 2020.The TTP’s ideology and outlook on many features is similar to that of the Taliban. An Islamic state throughout the border will gas TTP’s ambitions in establishing an analogous one in Pakistan. Taliban 2.0 may also allow TTP to do extra propaganda, thereby, recruiting extra fighters and gaining extra monetary backing from throughout quarters.Will TTP have a free hand? TTP will nonetheless must be cautious and politically appropriate with regards to a number of points. It is a indisputable fact that the Taliban will now be much less depending on Pakistan. But China’s significance in all that is nonetheless up for debate and this can be a vital aspect of the place TTP goes from right here.Exclusive audio of Chief of TTP Mufti Noor Wali Maseed stating in Pushto language, that “Pakistani soldiers are dark and ugly, we will never forget their crimes, and we will free our land of this army” #PakistanZindabad #Talibans #Waziristan #ptmmakinmarch4afghanpeace pic.twitter.com/BovovzZp8Y— BerojMaseed (Unofficial Talib) (@PashtunPoet) August 22, 2021
ALSO READ: Talks between Taliban, Panjshir resistance break down as Afghans await formation of recent authorities | 10 DevelopmentsTP has ties with a number of Uyghur teams and has been focusing on numerous Chinese employees related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Most notably, it’s alleged that TTP and Baloch rebel teams labored in tandem to hold out the suicide assault on 9 Chinese employees on July 14. The assault was on a two-bus convoy carrying engineering workers to the Dasu hydropower challenge within the distant northern area of Kohistan.If the Taliban strikes a take care of China to hold out infrastructural and developmental initiatives in Afghanistan as a part of its picture and nation constructing, China will want assurances from the Taliban about not supporting teams like TTP that are thought of detrimental to CPEC initiatives.Exclusive video of the Chief of TTP Mufti Noor Wali Maseed mentions the Pakistani military and its crimes upon the harmless nations of ‘Azad Balochistan’, ‘Azad Pashtunistan’ and ‘Sindhui Desh’. This is superb. Shows us TTP is rather more than IEA. #PakistanZindabad pic.twitter.com/hZB2nfFsWz— BerojMaseed (Unofficial Talib) (@PashtunPoet) August 22, 2021
Amid these, Pakistan can also be trying to urge the Taliban to persuade TTP again to the dialogue tables. This is a part of an alleged plan by Pakistan to get TTP to agree for ceasefire and signal a peace deal. Local information companies in Pakistan counsel that there are negotiations going down between the TTP and Islamabad on a peace deal, with folks near Taliban additionally concerned.TTP has apparently demanded management of the tribal areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and implementation of Sharia regulation. Recent movies of Noor Wali present him speaking in regards to the crimes of Pakistani military in opposition to “innocent nations” of “Azad Balochistan”, “Azad Pashtunistan” and “Sindhu Desh”. He additionally mentioned that the TTP will free these lands from the military. It is vital to notice that TTP, just like the Taliban, shall be collaborating in talks from a place of intense power.Faran Jeffery, an OSINT professional and deputy director of Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism (ITCT), opines, “The Taliban didn’t act against TTP even when they were a lot dependent on Pakistan. Now Pakistan’s leverage on them is in decline. I don’t think Taliban will act against TTP. If things get bad, they might ask TTP not to carry out ops from Afghan soil, but that’s about it.”Therefore, it stays to be seen how a lot free will the TTP can have and the way the Taliban resurgence will impression their resurgence. With a number of gamers within the sport, and with China being the brand new entrant, it stays to be seen what the Taliban and TTP need most.(The author is a Singapore-based Open-Source Intelligence analyst) ALSO READ: President Biden, redeem your self and deal with PakistanWATCH: Pakistan college students sing ‘Salam Taliban’, hoist flag at ladies’s madrasa